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21st century climate change as simulated by European climate models U. Cubasch, H. Huebener Thanks to: F. Niehörster, I. Fast, T. Spangehl The climate system Physical system, components interacting on different time and space scales a use physical equations to describe and simulate the system! Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong Global warming since 19th century: anthropogenic signature or natural fluctuations? Put measured signal in the geological perspective What is the scale? Years? Million years? Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong we are here Climate of the last 400 000 years (Vostok ice core) Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong Zoom in on last 1000 years (note: change of abscissa) TemperatureReconstruction (treerings, corals, ice and sediment cores, historical evidence) of northern hemisphere temperature from year 1000 to 1999 and instrumental records from 1902 to 1999 „Mann et al“- curve (Hockey-Stick) Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong Natural forcings selected red: solar, yellow: volcanoes, green: solar and volcanoes Solar constant and modified solar constant (anomaly relative to 1850-2000) 5.00 volcanoes + solar volcanoes 0.00 solar -5.00 -10.00 Makian El Chichon St. Maria Agung -15.00 Pinatubo Krakatoa -20.00 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 natural and anthropogenic forcing observations natural forcing The AR4 modelling results Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong ENSEMBLES www.ensembles-eu.org The project aims to: • Develop an ensemble prediction system for climate change of state-of-the-art, high resolution, global and regional Earth System models developed in Europe, to produce an objective probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal to decadal and longer timescales • Quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System (including water resource, land use, and air quality issues, and carbon cycle feedbacks) • Maximise the exploitation of the results by providing the outputs to a applications e.g. in agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and weather risk management • 76 participants, managed by the Hadley Centre (UK) Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong The ENSEMBLES project • EU-project, contributing to IPCC AR4 • 7 European AO-GCMs: – HadCM3 (UK) – HadGEM1 (UK) – ECHAM5/MPI-OM (Germany, Denmark) – CNRM-CM3 (France) – IPSL-CM4 (France) – BCM2 (Norway) – EGMAM (Germany) Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong Annual temperature changes (K) A1b Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong A1b B1 A2 Annual mean surface air temp. change (K) for all the scenarios 2080-2099 rel. to 1980-1999 • Strongest warming in high northern latitudes and over continents • Weakest warming over southern hemisphere oceans • ENSO-like warming pattern in tropical Pacific in A1b and A2 scenario • SE-Asia: warming > 4°C (in A2), > 3°C (in A1b), > 2°C (in B1) Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong DJF precipitation change (mm/d) A1B Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong Precipitation change A1b scenario mm/d Precipitation change (mm/day), ensemble mean 2080-2099 rel. to 1980-1999 • Largest changes where absolute values are largest (Tropics!) • General increase in Tropics, mid to high latitudes • Decrease in subtropics • Differences in regional trends between models • South China Sea: decrease in DJF, increase in JJA Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong Summary I • ENSEMBLES 20th century simulations quite similar to each other and to observations, if both, natural and anthropogenic forcing are included. • IPCC scenarios A2, A1b and B1 have been run by 7 modeling groups. However, sample size per group is still small (≤ 4) • Temperature and precipitation change patterns similar for all the models and to the one in both IPCC reports (2001, 2007) Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong Summary II • Warming in all models and all scenarios, largest in high northern latitudes and over continents, smallest over southern oceans • Mean values for the year 2100 relative to 2000: 2.6 K for A1b, 3.4 K for A2 and 1.5 K for B1 lower than in the AR4 report for all scenarios • Global precipitation rise, but distinct regional patterns, less consistency among models Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong Comparison ENSEMBLES with AR4 Projected warming in 21st century patterns quite similar. Magnitude of change smaller in ENSEMBLES than in IPCC AR4 ENSEMBLES Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong IPCC AR4C Comparison ENSEMBLES with AR4 ENSEMBLES mm/d AR4 Projected precipitation change patterns quite similar Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong The ENSEMBLES-Partners and their Models IPSL MPI DMI CNRM (Meteo) FUB Model IPSLCM4 ECHA M5/ MPIOM ECHA M5/ MPIOM CNRMCM3 EGMA M HadGEM 1 Atmosphere component LMDZ-4 ECHA M5 ECHA M5 ARPEG E V3 ECHA M4-MA HadGAM 1 resolution (top level) 2.5°x3.7 5° L19 (10hPa) T63 L31 (10hPa ) T63 L31 (10hP a) T63 L45 (0.05hP a) T30 L39 (0.01h Pa) 1.25°x1.8 8° L38 (3.1hPa) ocean component OPA 8.1 MPIOM MPIOM OPA 8.1 HOPEG HadGOM 1 resolution 2° part. refined L31 1.5° L40 2° part. refined L31 T42 equat. refined L20 1° equat. refined L40 Partner 1.5° L40 Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong Hadley Cent. NERSC HadC M3 ARPEGE V3 / MICOM + OASIS ARPEGE V3 T42 L19 (10hP a) T63 L31 (10hPa) NERSC modif. MICOM2.8 1.25° L20 1.5° equat. refined L35 Current status of model experiments Partner IPSL MPI DMI CNRM (Meteo) FUB 20C3M anth. yes yes (3x) yes yes yes (3x) 20C3M anth.+nat yes (2x) Hadley Cent. yes yes(3x) A1B yes yes (3x) yes yes yes (3x) 750 ppm stab. yes yes (2x) yes yes yes (3x) B1 yes yes (3x) yes yes (3x) 550 ppm stab. yes yes (3x) yes yes (2x) A2 yes yes (3x) yes yes (3x) 835 ppm stab. yes NERSC yes yes yes yes yes yes Spring ´07 yes yes yes yes yes yes yes 1% CO2 until doubling (CMIP) yes yes (3x) yes yes (+300y) yes yes 1% CO2 until 4x, then fixed yes yes yes yes yes yes Outlook “second stream” simulations have to conform to the IPCC AR5 second stream? first stream Atmosphere Ocean Without downscaling Land-surface Off-line impacts sea-ice Earth System Model On-line impacts AOGCM Aerosols Downscaling and embedded regional models Chemistry Dynamic vegetation Land and ocean carbon cycle Impact models The comprehensive Earth-System-Model Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong Outlook: ENSEMBLES ‘second stream’ models The models will probably include: • dynamic vegetation • carbon cycle • aerosols (in differing complexity) • The models should be suitable for realizing more than one run Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong