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21st century climate change
as simulated by European
climate models
U. Cubasch, H. Huebener
Thanks to: F. Niehörster, I. Fast, T. Spangehl
The climate system
Physical system, components interacting on different time and
space scales
a use physical equations to describe and simulate the system!
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
Global
warming since
19th century:
anthropogenic
signature or
natural
fluctuations?
 Put measured
signal in the
geological
perspective
What is the scale? Years? Million years?
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
we are here
Climate of the last 400 000 years (Vostok ice core)
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
Zoom in on last 1000 years
(note: change of abscissa)
TemperatureReconstruction
(treerings, corals,
ice and sediment
cores, historical
evidence) of
northern
hemisphere
temperature from
year 1000 to 1999
and instrumental
records from 1902
to 1999
„Mann et al“- curve (Hockey-Stick)
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
Natural forcings selected
red: solar, yellow: volcanoes, green: solar and
volcanoes
Solar constant and modified solar constant (anomaly relative to 1850-2000)
5.00
volcanoes + solar
volcanoes
0.00
solar
-5.00
-10.00
Makian
El Chichon
St. Maria
Agung
-15.00
Pinatubo
Krakatoa
-20.00
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
natural and anthropogenic forcing
observations
natural forcing
The AR4 modelling results
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
ENSEMBLES
www.ensembles-eu.org
The project aims to:
• Develop an ensemble prediction system for climate change of
state-of-the-art, high resolution, global and regional Earth System
models developed in Europe, to produce an objective probabilistic
estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal to decadal
and longer timescales
• Quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the representation of
physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the
Earth System (including water resource, land use, and air quality
issues, and carbon cycle feedbacks)
• Maximise the exploitation of the results by providing the outputs to
a applications e.g. in agriculture, health, food security, energy, water
resources, insurance and weather risk management
• 76 participants, managed by the Hadley Centre (UK)
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
The ENSEMBLES project
• EU-project, contributing to IPCC AR4
• 7 European AO-GCMs:
– HadCM3 (UK)
– HadGEM1 (UK)
– ECHAM5/MPI-OM (Germany, Denmark)
– CNRM-CM3 (France)
– IPSL-CM4 (France)
– BCM2 (Norway)
– EGMAM (Germany)
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
Annual temperature changes (K) A1b
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
A1b
B1
A2
Annual mean surface air temp.
change (K) for all the scenarios
2080-2099 rel. to 1980-1999
• Strongest warming in high northern
latitudes and over continents
• Weakest warming over southern
hemisphere oceans
• ENSO-like warming pattern in tropical
Pacific in A1b and A2 scenario
• SE-Asia: warming > 4°C (in A2), > 3°C (in
A1b), > 2°C (in B1)
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
DJF precipitation change (mm/d) A1B
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
Precipitation change A1b scenario
mm/d
Precipitation change (mm/day), ensemble mean 2080-2099 rel. to 1980-1999
• Largest changes where absolute values are largest
(Tropics!)
• General increase in Tropics, mid to high latitudes
• Decrease in subtropics
• Differences in regional trends between models
• South China Sea: decrease in DJF, increase in JJA
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
Summary I
• ENSEMBLES 20th century simulations
quite similar to each other and to
observations, if both, natural and
anthropogenic forcing are included.
• IPCC scenarios A2, A1b and B1 have
been run by 7 modeling groups. However,
sample size per group is still small (≤ 4)
• Temperature and precipitation change
patterns similar for all the models and to
the one in both IPCC reports (2001, 2007)
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
Summary II
• Warming in all models and all scenarios, largest
in high northern latitudes and over continents,
smallest over southern oceans
• Mean values for the year 2100 relative to 2000:
2.6 K for A1b, 3.4 K for A2 and 1.5 K for B1 
lower than in the AR4 report for all scenarios
• Global precipitation rise, but distinct regional
patterns, less consistency among models
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
Comparison ENSEMBLES with AR4
Projected warming
in 21st century
patterns quite
similar.
Magnitude of
change smaller in
ENSEMBLES
than in IPCC AR4
ENSEMBLES
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
IPCC AR4C
Comparison ENSEMBLES with AR4
ENSEMBLES
mm/d
AR4
Projected
precipitation change patterns quite similar
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
The ENSEMBLES-Partners and their Models
IPSL
MPI
DMI
CNRM
(Meteo)
FUB
Model
IPSLCM4
ECHA
M5/
MPIOM
ECHA
M5/
MPIOM
CNRMCM3
EGMA
M
HadGEM
1
Atmosphere
component
LMDZ-4
ECHA
M5
ECHA
M5
ARPEG
E V3
ECHA
M4-MA
HadGAM
1
resolution (top
level)
2.5°x3.7
5° L19
(10hPa)
T63
L31
(10hPa
)
T63
L31
(10hP
a)
T63
L45
(0.05hP
a)
T30
L39
(0.01h
Pa)
1.25°x1.8
8° L38
(3.1hPa)
ocean
component
OPA 8.1
MPIOM
MPIOM
OPA 8.1
HOPEG
HadGOM
1
resolution
2°
part.
refined
L31
1.5°
L40
2°
part.
refined
L31
T42
equat.
refined
L20
1°
equat.
refined
L40
Partner
1.5°
L40
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
Hadley
Cent.
NERSC
HadC
M3
ARPEGE V3 /
MICOM +
OASIS
ARPEGE V3
T42
L19
(10hP
a)
T63 L31
(10hPa)
NERSC modif.
MICOM2.8
1.25°
L20
1.5°
equat. refined
L35
Current status of model experiments
Partner
IPSL
MPI
DMI
CNRM
(Meteo)
FUB
20C3M anth.
yes
yes (3x)
yes
yes
yes (3x)
20C3M anth.+nat
yes (2x)
Hadley Cent.
yes
yes(3x)
A1B
yes
yes (3x)
yes
yes
yes (3x)
750 ppm stab.
yes
yes (2x)
yes
yes
yes (3x)
B1
yes
yes (3x)
yes
yes (3x)
550 ppm stab.
yes
yes (3x)
yes
yes (2x)
A2
yes
yes (3x)
yes
yes (3x)
835 ppm stab.
yes
NERSC
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
Spring
´07
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
1% CO2 until
doubling (CMIP)
yes
yes (3x)
yes
yes
(+300y)
yes
yes
1% CO2 until 4x,
then fixed
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
Outlook
“second stream” simulations
have to conform to the
IPCC AR5
second stream?
first stream
Atmosphere
Ocean
Without
downscaling
Land-surface
Off-line
impacts
sea-ice
Earth
System
Model
On-line
impacts
AOGCM
Aerosols
Downscaling
and embedded
regional
models
Chemistry
Dynamic
vegetation
Land and ocean
carbon cycle
Impact models
The comprehensive Earth-System-Model
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong
Outlook: ENSEMBLES ‘second
stream’ models
The models will probably include:
• dynamic vegetation
• carbon cycle
• aerosols (in differing complexity)
• The models should be suitable for realizing
more than one run
Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong