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Promise of Broadband – Pass/Fail Don Westlight, Ed Parker, Mary Beth Henry, Jon Dolan, Sheldon Renan with assistance from Rob Wilcox Broadband... So what??? apologies to Maslow… • • • • • Jobs Government Healthcare Education Entertainment Let’s talk about past and future Mass Media Circa 1970 • 4 broadcast TV networks • Sender-controlled mass media • No personal computers or smartphones • modem speed 300 bits per second • No social media or user participation • Vision: receiver-controlled mass media 1970 vision of the Internet • computer information retrieval systems • SPIRES, Stanford physics pre-print collection on-line • user terminals combining typewriter & TV functions • software network functions • electronic daily newspapers • world’s libraries of information on demand • telephone too narrow-band; need broadband cable Retrospective look: Mission Accomplished, but more needed 1990 Networks • live and work anywhere with good enough communications • modem speed 9600 • dial up access (long distance toll calls on Oregon coast) • Walled gardens: AOL, CompuServe, Dialog • email systems not interconnected • first North American web page: Stanford physics pre-print collection Promise of Broadband … we thought GO FASTER ! But really we went from this …. … to this in terms of social change. Millennials Not Driving “Between 2001 and 2009, the average number of miles driven by 16 to 34 year-olds dropped by 23 percent …” - U.S. Public Interest Research Group It Sure is Turning up Everywhere ... Is Broadband Everywhere? Exponential Oregon New Rules “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” George Santyana, 1913 FORGET IT How Oregon is Changing Population grows geometrically (slowly) How Oregon is Changing Oregonians have a growing number of connected nodes per person How Oregon is Changing The growth in data is much faster than the growth in population or nodes! Game Changer 1 - Aging Population Percent of Population over 55 2010 29.7 2015 31.2 2020 33.9 2025 32.4 2030 32.7 2035 33.2 Game Changer 2 - Climate Change “Climate change is a bigger threat to survival of a species than other species.” - Charles Darwin Oregon to be a “life-raft state”. Climate refugees may mob Oregon. How Oregon is Changing Increasing numbers creates complexity. As complexity increases… Connectivity must increase to manage it. How Oregon is Changing Think Outside beyond The Network Think networks —> n e t n e s s How Oregon is Changing systems & networks —> fabrics & fields connected —> entangled two worlds (atoms & bits) become one the new normal How Oregon is Changing Anything that can be connected will be connected. What gets connected gets optimized. The more things are connected the better things work. How Oregon is Changing Time to Rethink: Policy Provisioning Peering How Oregon is Changing Time to Re-prioritize: The Public Good is Good Business Localism •Technology moves faster than regulation • Success depends on where you are on the pyramid • Local Broadband Strategic Plan • Encourage broadband deployment, competition & localism • Digital Inclusion Strategy Alive and Well in Oregon 2 communities 2 Stories SandyNet – Gigabit Fiber to the Premise Portland’s IRNE – Gigabit Fiber for Government SandyNet • Non-profit utility • $7.5 million • 100 Mbps - $39.95 • Gigabit - $59.95 Portland IRNE • Non-profit utility • $14 million • Cost effective, collaborative and future-focused Localism in Action • Laser-like focus on need for FTTP – (Portlanders believe in a high fiber diet) • Look at Google, CenturyLink and Comcast as potential partners • Digital Inclusion – part of civic DNA Next Century Cities •High-Speed Internet Is Necessary Infrastructure •The Internet Is Nonpartisan •Communities Must Enjoy Self-Determination. •High-Speed Internet Is a Community-Wide Endeavor •Meaningful Competition Drives Progress •Collaboration Benefits All What is Broadband? Localism •Localism may not mean the same thing in every community. •We have to create the future. •Connecting everything … people, places, devices, things… •What does this mean for your future? In healthcare EVERYTHING is CONNECTED Infrastructure Investment One WIFI AP every 50’ square (2500 ft2) OHSU has 6 million square feet = 2400 WIFI has been complete for years (actually 2500 deployed) Gigabit is OHSU’s new standard connection, 85,000 ports will take awhile... Backbone rings, where does the data go? 100 Gigabit Ring just between datacenters Gigabit shmigabit… so what? “In the 13 countries we studied, the Internet has contributed an average of 3.4% to GDP, weighting more than agriculture, energy, and other better established industries… This value comes primarily from increased productivity. -McKinsey Global Institute Internet Matters: The net’s sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity. GDP involves you Maybe your data is worth protecting... Broadband correlated to burglary in Britain Internet Journal on Criminology 2012 ISSN 2045-6743 Internet use grows Burglary declines Second car is a smartphone app… old school without broadband… (OK so I came from a tough neighborhood…) Checking out a car The promise of Broadband: Cure Cancer ((a process involving computation)) By 2020 we will be able to sequence a person’s genome in one day Poor Herbie Hart Dr. Brian Drucker Knight Cancer Institute On pace for the $1B fundraising challenge The OHSU Datadome A world class facility for big data… The promise of Broadband: Cure Cancer • First read a genetic sample and transcribe the genome (Goal 1 day by 2020 - datacenter intensive) Poor Herbie Hart • Then interpret the genome by correlating to known problems and solutions. (Contests at synapse.org to do this right now. “A set of living research projects enabling contribution to large scale collaborative solutions to scientific problems.”) (crowdsource algorithms against known patient genomes & outcomes) • Then build a custom cure for each patient. (Think programmable kryptonite virus...) The promise of Broadband: Pass / Fail Pros: Broadband saves distance and time for whatever you want to do… there’s an app for that... Communication/Collaboartion Tools, Job Engagement, Entertainment & Culture, Medicine & Emergency Response,, Personal/Civic/Global involvement feasible. Meaningfully responding as a species to Global Warming, plus Traffic & Weather alerts Poor Herbie Hart Cons: Broadband saves distance and time for activity you don’t like Aggressive marketing & profiling, Hackers, Terrorists, Braindamaged Banking Regulation, and Cyberwar: The Internet was not originally designed for security. Some work remains to be done. Yes and we should prepare for earthquakes, and people without drivers licenses could smash up your car… we just have to manage our risks and broadband is no different Bottom Line: PASS (Thanks for your hard work getting here!) Safety, Health and your job (the Economy) benefit and you get to watch Youtube & Netflix... Broadband Future • All we need is MORE • WiFi+ everywhere • Internet of Things: smart roads, smart everything • high definition holographic image projection • fast inter-planetary broadband Next interim goal: 100 gigabits everywhere Thank You & Conversation