Download Promise of Broadband – Pass/Fail

Promise of Broadband –
Pass/Fail
Don Westlight, Ed Parker, Mary Beth
Henry, Jon Dolan, Sheldon Renan with
assistance from Rob Wilcox
Broadband... So what???
apologies to Maslow…
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Jobs
Government
Healthcare
Education
Entertainment
Let’s talk
about past
and future
Mass Media Circa 1970
• 4 broadcast TV networks
• Sender-controlled mass media
• No personal computers or smartphones
• modem speed 300 bits per second
• No social media or user participation
• Vision: receiver-controlled mass media
1970 vision of the Internet
• computer information retrieval systems
• SPIRES, Stanford physics pre-print collection on-line
• user terminals combining typewriter & TV functions
• software network functions
• electronic daily newspapers
• world’s libraries of information on demand
• telephone too narrow-band; need broadband cable
Retrospective look: Mission Accomplished,
but more needed
1990 Networks
• live and work anywhere with good enough communications
• modem speed 9600
• dial up access (long distance toll calls on Oregon coast)
• Walled gardens: AOL, CompuServe, Dialog
• email systems not interconnected
• first North American web page: Stanford physics pre-print
collection
Promise of Broadband … we thought
GO FASTER !
But really we went from this ….
… to this in terms of social change.
Millennials Not Driving
“Between 2001 and 2009, the average number of miles
driven by 16 to 34 year-olds dropped by 23 percent …”
- U.S. Public Interest Research Group
It Sure is Turning up Everywhere ...
Is Broadband Everywhere?
Exponential Oregon
New Rules
“Those who cannot remember the past
are condemned to repeat it.”
George Santyana,
1913
FORGET IT
How Oregon is Changing
Population grows
geometrically
(slowly)
How Oregon is Changing
Oregonians have
a growing number of
connected nodes
per person
How Oregon is Changing
The growth in data is
much faster than the
growth in population or
nodes!
Game Changer 1 - Aging Population
Percent of
Population over 55
2010 29.7
2015 31.2
2020 33.9
2025 32.4
2030 32.7
2035 33.2
Game Changer 2 - Climate Change
“Climate change is a bigger threat to survival of a
species than other species.”
- Charles Darwin
Oregon to be a “life-raft state”.
Climate refugees may mob Oregon.
How Oregon is Changing
Increasing numbers creates complexity.
As complexity increases…
Connectivity must increase to manage it.
How Oregon is Changing
Think
Outside beyond
The Network
Think
networks —> n e t n e s s
How Oregon is Changing
systems & networks —> fabrics & fields
connected —> entangled
two worlds (atoms & bits) become one
the new normal
How Oregon is Changing
Anything that can be connected
will be connected.
What gets connected
gets optimized.
The more things are connected
the better things work.
How Oregon is Changing
Time to Rethink:
Policy
Provisioning
Peering
How Oregon is Changing
Time to Re-prioritize:
The Public Good
is Good Business
Localism
•Technology moves faster than regulation
• Success depends on where you are on the pyramid
• Local Broadband Strategic Plan
• Encourage broadband deployment,
competition & localism
• Digital Inclusion Strategy
Alive and Well in Oregon
2 communities 2 Stories
SandyNet
– Gigabit Fiber to
the Premise
Portland’s IRNE
– Gigabit Fiber for
Government
SandyNet
• Non-profit utility
• $7.5 million
• 100 Mbps - $39.95
• Gigabit - $59.95
Portland IRNE
• Non-profit utility
• $14 million
• Cost effective,
collaborative and
future-focused
Localism in Action
• Laser-like focus on need for FTTP
– (Portlanders believe in a high fiber diet)
• Look at Google, CenturyLink and Comcast as potential
partners
• Digital Inclusion – part of civic DNA
Next Century Cities
•High-Speed Internet Is Necessary Infrastructure
•The Internet Is Nonpartisan
•Communities Must Enjoy Self-Determination.
•High-Speed Internet Is a Community-Wide Endeavor
•Meaningful Competition Drives Progress
•Collaboration Benefits All
What is Broadband?
Localism
•Localism may not mean the same thing in every
community.
•We have to create the future.
•Connecting everything … people, places, devices,
things…
•What does this mean for your future?
In healthcare
EVERYTHING
is
CONNECTED
Infrastructure Investment
One WIFI AP every 50’ square (2500 ft2)
OHSU has 6 million square feet = 2400
WIFI has been complete for years
(actually 2500 deployed)
Gigabit is OHSU’s new standard connection,
85,000 ports will take awhile...
Backbone rings, where does the data go?
100 Gigabit Ring
just
between datacenters
Gigabit shmigabit… so what?
“In the 13 countries we studied, the
Internet has contributed an average of
3.4% to GDP, weighting more than
agriculture, energy, and other better
established industries… This value
comes primarily from increased
productivity.
-McKinsey Global Institute
Internet Matters: The net’s sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity.
GDP
involves
you
Maybe
your
data is
worth
protecting...
Broadband correlated to burglary in Britain
Internet Journal on Criminology 2012
ISSN 2045-6743
Internet use
grows
Burglary
declines
Second car is a smartphone app…
old school without broadband…
(OK so I came from a tough neighborhood…)
Checking out a car
The promise of Broadband:
Cure Cancer
((a process involving computation))
By 2020 we will be
able to sequence a
person’s genome
in one day
Poor Herbie Hart
Dr. Brian Drucker
Knight Cancer Institute
On pace for the $1B fundraising challenge
The OHSU Datadome
A world class facility
for big data…
The promise of Broadband:
Cure Cancer
• First read a genetic sample and transcribe the genome
(Goal 1 day by 2020 - datacenter intensive)
Poor Herbie Hart
• Then interpret the genome by correlating to known
problems and solutions. (Contests at synapse.org to do
this right now. “A set of living research projects enabling
contribution to large scale collaborative solutions to
scientific problems.”) (crowdsource algorithms against
known patient genomes & outcomes)
• Then build a custom cure for each patient.
(Think programmable kryptonite virus...)
The promise of Broadband:
Pass / Fail
Pros: Broadband saves distance and time for whatever
you want to do… there’s an app for that...
Communication/Collaboartion Tools, Job Engagement, Entertainment & Culture, Medicine & Emergency
Response,, Personal/Civic/Global involvement feasible. Meaningfully responding as a species to Global
Warming, plus Traffic & Weather alerts
Poor Herbie Hart
Cons: Broadband saves distance and time for activity you
don’t like
Aggressive marketing & profiling, Hackers, Terrorists, Braindamaged Banking Regulation, and Cyberwar:
The Internet was not originally designed for security. Some work remains to be done. Yes and we should
prepare for earthquakes, and people without drivers licenses could smash up your car… we just have to
manage our risks and broadband is no different
Bottom Line: PASS (Thanks for your hard work getting here!)
Safety, Health and your job (the Economy) benefit
and you get to watch Youtube & Netflix...
Broadband Future
• All we need is MORE
• WiFi+ everywhere
• Internet of Things: smart roads, smart everything
• high definition holographic image projection
• fast inter-planetary broadband
Next interim goal: 100 gigabits everywhere
Thank You & Conversation