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Gordon Chap. 5 Hypotheses •Predictions •“Models”---maybe a conceptual flow chart •Strong inference •experiments Gordon Chap. 5: Hypotheses “It is my hypothesis that…” Hypotheses Force you to: •Think in terms of predictions •Think of ways to disprove a claim (e.g., the null hypothesis) •Makes your goals explicit •Guides reviewers to core effort Models: “structured abstractions” Quantitative models Analog models • Organize complexity • Point to questions/problems/hypotheses • Organize data and results • Present results Experiments • Don’t think just in terms of “laboratory experiments” • Lab vs field • Quant vs. qualitative • Model experiments “Finding Experiments” • • • • Natural or “Found” Experiments Weaker “control” “natural trajectory” experiment “natural snapshot” experiments Booth: Chap. 5 From Problems to Sources • • • • • • • Need something of a plan for sources Primary Secondary Tertiary Reliability screen Experts as sources Bibliographical trails What you find Avoid concluding early: • Ouy! “Nothing new to say, there goes my project!” • Question the results (answer may be “they’re pretty good!”) • Do it differently • Do it better Chap. 6: Using Sources Read for a Problem • Stating / Clarifying the problem (look for weaknesses, chance to re-state, or challenge) Read for an Argument • Use “model” arguments from similar research--BORROW THE LOGIC! (that’s not plagiarism) Read for Evidence • Careful, complete citation • Collect “data” from your sources; • critically assess; Chap 7 Making Good Arguments • claim --- reason --- evidence – Base claims on reasons, base reasons on evidence • Acknowledge and respond to alternatives – Answer as may questions and doubts you can imagine (but where do you stop?) • Avoid “inappropriate evidence” (p. 124 • Avoid “comfortable simplicity” (p. 125) Chap. 15: Illustrations, graphs, tables • • • • • Careful use will enhance your work. Conceptual flow chart / diagram Lists and tables Maps photos Hurricane Flood Prevention: modify the event Earthquake (Dams, levees, cloud seeding, etc.) Tsunami wildfire Magnitude, frequency, duration, extent Natural Events System Natural Hazard Impacts Response economic loss Human use System Vulnerability Populations Agriculture Settlement Transportation Housing Adapt: reduce human vulnerability: (building codes, land use regulations, etc.) Spread / Share the Loss: Disaster aid, insurance Growth in the American West • More “boom” than “bust” The Riebsame-Travis* Scale of Climate Change Severity *Taking its rightful place among the great hazard scales: Richter, Mercalli, SaffirSimpson, and Fujita! Named after moi and my previous name: two names sound better than one. Level 1: perhaps autonomous adaptation will work as performance standards are occasionally up-dated. Level 2: Targeted adaptation to specifically-recognized climate challenges. Level 3: Adapting to climate change as a natural hazard. Level 4: Who knows? The conceptual structure of the International Land Science Program See: GLP (2005) Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No. 53/IHDP Report No. 19. IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm. 64pp. Patterned Regional Outcomes Driving Forces •Population Growth •Job growth •Per capita housing growth (households, house size) •Low density, autooriented, “pastoral” suburban culture Enabling Forces Shaping Forces •Transportation network •Transportation network •Pro-development / growth local policies •Public lands •Flex-time, home office; retirement; and footloose businesses •Recreational features •Local tax structure • NEW LISTING! Canyon Ranch, Beaverhead County. The 1,270 acre Canyon Ranch represents an unusual opportunity to acquire 3 +/- miles of one of the finer spring creek fisheries in the west. The structural compound is well built, technologically advanced and comfortable for accommodating a single owner or a multitude of guests. With four miles of improved horse trails, miles of fishing, a world class trout lake and abundant wildlife, this is a recreational treasure complimented by a working cattle operation. Settled in a very scenic canyon adjacent to vast federal ground, the ranch is positioned in a relatively undiscovered part of western