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The Europe ACACIA Project: Scope, achievements and relationship to future climate change impact research needs Timothy Carter Finnish Environment Institute Helsinki, Finland EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 The Europe ACACIA Project: Scope, achievements and relationship to future climate change impact research needs 1. Overview of ACACIA 2. Possible next steps and the role of indicators 3. Some examples of climate impact indicators EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL EFFECTS AND ADAPTATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN EUROPE The Europe ACACIA Project (A Concerted Action towards a comprehensive climate impacts and adaptations assessment for the European Union) EUROPEAN COMMISSION THE THREE ACACIA REPORTS Summary - of policy implications and recommendations (20 pages) Full Report (324 pages) Scenarios of climate change for Europe (104 pages) Funded by European Commission (1998-2000), 27 scientific experts covering all the EU EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 ACACIA IMPACT/ADAPTATION SECTORS • Effects of weather now • Socio-economic and technological scenarios • Climate scenarios • Water • Soils • Ecosystems • Forests • Agriculture • Fisheries • Insurance • Transport, energy and industry • Tourism • Health • Coastal zones • Mountain regions EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 SOME KEY FINDINGS • The climate of Europe is changing (now) • We can already see some significant impacts • Climate futures (and their impact) depend on Europe’s development: we examine this for the first time • There are major changes projected for occurrence of extreme weather (also examined for the first time) • Our estimates are derived from the study of 8 GCM simulations (“IPCC-approved”) EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 OBSERVED TRENDS IN EUROPEAN CLIMATE EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 FOUR NON-CLIMATE GLOBAL FUTURES (The “SRES” scenarios) globalisation World Markets/A1 Global Sustainability/B1 Conservationist/ Communitarian Consumerist/ individualist Local Stewardship/B2 Provincial Enterprise/ A2 localisation EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 SUMMARY OF EUROPEAN NON-CLIMATE FUTURES WORLD MARKETS A1 PROVINCIAL ENTERPRISE A2 GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY B1 LOCAL STEWARDSHIP B2 Values Consumerist Individualist Conservationist Conservative Governance Globalised, weak National, weak Globalised, strong Regional/national, strong Annual GDP 3% 1.5 % 2% 1% Equity Decline Decline Improvement Mixed Air quality General deterioration Deterioration Improvement Mixed Water quality Mixed Deterioration Improvement General improvement Biodiversity Under pressure Deterioration Stable Improvement EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 GLOBAL TEMPERATURES EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL RISE EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 PROBABILITY OF COLD WINTER (1 YEAR IN 10 TODAY) ACACIA A2-high, Temperature Extremes 2020 2080 EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 PROBABILITY OF A HOT SUMMER (1 YEAR IN 10 TODAY) ACACIA A2-high, Temperature Extremes 2020 2080 EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 CHANGES IN EXTREME EVENTS B1-low Cold-related Cold winters Frosts Freeze/thaw cycles Avalanches Ice storms Heat-related Hot summers Heatwaves Synoptic Flow Blocking episodes Moisture-related Drought Intense precipitation Hail Fog Storm-related Gales Tropical cyclones Tornados Wind shear Storm surges Lightning B2-mid A1-mid A2-high MARKED DECREASE Decreasing frequency Increase in Scandinavia; decrease elsewhere Increasing risk Possible increase, but no firm evidence MARKED INCREASE Increasing severity Possible decrease, but no firm evidence Increased risk, especially in southern Europe Possible increase Possible increase, but no firm evidence Unknown Northern Europe increase, Southern Europe uncertain Possible increase in intensity, but inconclusive evidence Unknown Unknown Possible increase Possible increase EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 WATER • Increased annual streamflow in northern Europe, and a decrease in the south • Increased peak flows and flood risk due to heavy rainfall in northern and central Europe and Alps; decrease in Mediterranean region • Increase in the risk of summer drought in Europe, particularly in the south (water reliability and quality is reduced) EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 CHANGE IN ANNUAL RUNOFF IN THE 2050s EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 ECOSYSTEMS/FORESTRY • Northward displacement of boreal forests into Tundra; and broadleaved into boreal • Northern forests already showing +10% productivity (+70% by 2080s) • Fire disturbances more frequent and severe in the Mediterranean region (increased erosion and desertification) EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 AGRICULTURE • Thermal growing season has lengthened by about 10 days since the 1960s in parts of northern Europe • A northward expansion of all crop zones (100 - 150 km/°C) • More drought and heat stress in the Mediterranean region • Northward shift in pest distribution and increased number of reproductive cycles EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 MOUNTAINS • Upward migration of plant species and glacier retreat, is occurring now • 50 – 90% of alpine glaciers could disappear by the end of the 21st century • Warming = upward shift in tree-lines and vegetation belts (150m per ºC; up to 70m per decade) • Species extinction on mountain-tops • Increased fire hazard in southern populated mountain regions (e.g. Italy, Spain, Turkey, Greece) EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 WETLAND LOSS BY THE 2050s Saltmash Intertidal ecosystems EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 FINANCIAL SECTOR/INSURANCE • Insured losses due to weather-related disasters worldwide have increased 13-fold since the 1950s • Future increased claims due to severe weather may endanger regional insurers EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND INDUSTRY • Positive effects in N: reduction in the number of days with frost and lying snow • An increase in the frequency of hot dry summers could disrupt some industrial processes using large quantities of water (e.g. river-based power stations in mid and S. Europe) • Reduced space heating requirements in N. but increased space cooling requirements in S. EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 RECREATION AND TOURISM • Excessive heat in traditional Mediterranean resorts • Reduced reliability of snow cover in Alps EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 HUMAN HEALTH • Increased thermal stress and air pollution episodes = increased mortality and morbidity in the elderly (especially in S.) EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS In general: • There will be a south-to-north shift of climatic resources across Europe • The negative impacts will be greatest in more “marginal” regions in Europe (south and east), and less in “core” regions (metropolitan northwest) • Climate change will aggravate current environmental problems • Adapting to climate change should be factored into policies of environmental management and economic development in Europe EUROPEAN COMMISSION EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 2. Possible next steps and the role of indicators EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 ACHIEVEMENTS OF ACACIA ACACIA answered many "What if?" questions ACACIA also touched on some "What then?" questions ACACIA did not address the key UNFCCC question: "What is dangerous climate change?" though………. it provides the foundation for new assessments that attempt this EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 POSSIBLE NEXT STEPS AFTER ACACIA 1. Assess sensitivity to climate change using impact models 2. Identify "critical" levels of impact (stakeholders) 3. Evaluate thresholds of climate change leading to critica 4. Analyse adaptation mechanisms for enhancing climate tole 5. Evaluate new impact thresholds following adaptation 6. Analyse magnitude, timing and location of exceedance of impact thresholds with and without adaptation and for both unmitigated and mitigated climate change EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 Probability of obtaining poor quality cauliflower curds in the UK under unmitigated future climate and different mitigation scenarios (HadCM2) (unmitigated) Adaptation? Threshold: 15-day average mean temperature (from day 190) > 18ºC Source: Parry et al., 2001 EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 POSSIBLE NEXT STEPS AFTER ACACIA 1. Assess sensitivity to climate change using impact models 2. Identify "critical" levels of impact (stakeholders have important role) 3. Evaluate thresholds of climate change leading to critica 4. Analyse adaptation mechanisms for enhancing climate tole 5. Evaluate new impact thresholds 6. Analyse magnitude, timing and location of exceedance of impact thresholds with and without adaptation and for both unmitigated and 7. Key question for stakeholders: What combination of mitigated climate change adaptation and mitigation would best enable Europe to avoid significant Proposedof impacts ENCACIA climate project change? seeks to address these issues for European agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources and coasts EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 3. Some examples of climate impact indicators EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 PRUDENCE (Prediction of regional scenarios and uncertainties for defining European climate change risks and effects) 2001-2004 Objectives: a) to address and reduce deficiencies in projections of future regional climate change; b) to quantify uncertainties in predictions of future climate and its impacts, using an array of climate models and impact models and expert judgement on their performance; c) to interpret these results in relation to European policies for adapting to or mitigating climate change. EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 PRUDENCE INDICES OF RESOURCE POTENTIAL Index Resource potential Thermal growing season Accumulated temperature Potential biomass Potential vegetation Wind potential Baltic sea ice Description (and impact sector) Temperatures above 5C (agriculture, natural ecosystems) Growing degree-day requirements for crops (agriculture) Heating degree-days (energy) Cooling degree-days (energy) Lieth model (ecosystems) Holdridge life zones (natural vegetation) Wind speed (energy) Annual maximum extent of sea ice cover based on temperature (transport, marine life) Resolution of climate data Temporal Spatial Monthly/ daily Monthly Grid Monthly Monthly Annual Monthly Grid Grid Grid Grid Monthly Monthly Grid/site Grid Grid EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 PRUDENCE INDICES OF RESOURCE RISK Index Resource risk HWDI (Heat wave duration index) CDD R5D FD (frost days) Frost-free season Snow season Description (and impact sector) Longest period >5 consecutive days with Tmax >5C above the 1961-90 daily Tmax normal (health) Maximum number of consecutive dry days (Rday < 1mm) (agriculture) Maximum 5-day precipitation total (water resources) Total number of frost days (Tmin<0C) (ecosystems, transport) Dates of first and last frost (ecosystems, transport) Total number of days with snow depth < 20 cm (recreation/tourism) Resolution of climate data Temporal Spatial Daily Grid/site Daily Grid/site Daily Grid site Daily Grid/site Daily Grid/site Daily Grid/site EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 PRUDENCE: BALTIC SEA ICE (Tinz 1996) OBSERVED SCENARIOS Extrem ely severe 400000 350000 Severe 300000 250000 Average 200000 ECHAM4 GS 150000 Mild 100000 HadCM2 GS 50000 2060 2040 2020 2000 1980 1960 1940 1920 1800 1880 1860 1840 1820 1700 1780 1760 1740 Source: Venäläinen et al. (1999) 1720 0 2100 Extrem ely HadCM2 GG m ild 2080 Annual maximum extent of ice cover according to HadCM2 (GG and GS) and ECHAM4 (GS) simulations. Maximum ice extent [km2] Seinä and Palosuo (1996) EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001 EEA/ETC-ACC expert meeting on climate change state and impact indicators European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 22-23 November 2001
