Download Common use scenarios

OGC TC Meeting
Valencia, Spain
2 Dec 2008
AIP-2 CC&Bio WG
Use scenarios
Stefano Nativi (CNR) and Gary Geller (NASA/JPL)
Selected use scenarios
• CC impact on Pika distribution
• CC impact on Polar Ecosystems
• Vegetation changes in Arctic Ecosystems
CC IMPACT ON PIKA
DISTRIBUTION
Abstract
• This scenario is driven primarily by scientific research on the
distribution of pika and how it is changing.
• From the GEOSS infrastructure perspective, an important
objective is to investigate the interoperability process to
determine valuable predictors for the impact of climate change
on biodiversity
• Use observations of pika over the last 20 years, plus existing
modeling demonstration systems, to model pika distributions
and how they may change with climate
Users
• Scientist and decision makers.
Context and pre-conditions
Area of Interest
• The US Great Basin region
• Other regions in Asia may be considered
Scientific patrons
• Dr. Chris Ray (University of Colorado - CO USA)
• Dr. Falk Huettmann
– EWHALE lab- Biology and Wildlife Dept., Institute of Arctic Biology,
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Context and pre-conditions
Resources
• IPCC data (WMO)
• Biodiversity datasets (GBIF)
• Biodiversity datasets (Univ. Colorado)
• Local CC model: TOPS (NASA/JPL)
• IP3 ENM server (IP3)
• IP3 community distributed catalog (IP3)
General Approach
Researcher selects species of
interest based on research
needs and data availability
Researcher uses GBIF&IP3
components to predict how
range distributions will contract
in the future
Researcher uses GBIF&IP3
components to develop
correlation model between
species and environment.
Researcher uses known physiological
limits of the species to direct the
development of models relating predicted
climate change to predicted change in
species distribution
TOPS data are used if
available, otherwise other
climate sources can be used.
Researcher validates model
using additional observations
CC IMPACT ON
BIODIVERSITY/ECOSYSTEMS
FOR THE POLAR AREA
Abstract
• The scenario output will be as maps of Arctic biodiversity,
habitat and ecological service changes, as well as a
summarized scenario runs with all relevant metrics provided in a
simple to comprehend table.
– All outputs will carry statistical confidence, and should allow
to feed directly into policy making.
• The scenario models will allow to assess the amount and quality
of Ecological Services provided by the Arctic.
• The activities are intended to be linked with all relevant
components of the IPY (International Polar Year).
Users
• This scenario will cater the needs for
– the global public, scientists, and more specifically, the local
decision-maker for achieving best sustainability options.
Context and pre-conditions
Predict Future conditions
• To predict the future scenarios, we will create quantitative associations
of biodiversity and habitat with the current and long-term, and then
apply these to known and assumed future conditions.
• Possible biodiversity topics include
– Polar Bears presence
– plankton, selected benthos species, ringed seals, walrus,
narwhale, arctic codand endemic plants.
Area of Interest
• The Arctic (as defined as the 60 degree latitude circle)
Scientific patrons
• Dr. Falk Huettmann
– EWHALE lab- Biology and Wildlife Dept., Institute of Arctic Biology,
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Context and pre-conditions
Resources
• IPCC data (WMO/NCAR)
• Biodiversity datasets (GBIF)
• Landasat data (USGS)
• IP3 community distributed catalog (IP3)
• IP3 ENM server (IP3)
General Approach
Environment data has been
collected for the Arctic.
.Online implementation and
fruition
Biodiversity data has been
collected.
The user has been trained on
use of the niche modeller and
applied them globally
Group and Stakeholders set
up a governance protocol of
the project
Optimization and Niche
Modelling techniques have
been developed and validated
VEGETATION CHANGES IN
ARTIC ECOSYSTEMS
Abstract
• This scenario seeks to identify the extent and degree
of vegetation changes in response to climate change
in arctic ecosystems, and in particular, the borealtundra ecotone.
• Users
– Scientist
• with expertise in
– use of remote sensing
– image processing
Context and pre-conditions
Area of Interest
• The Arctic (as defined as the 60 degree latitude circle)
– with sites where consistent historical satellite data (Landsat) exist
Scientist patrons
• Dr. Douglas Nebert (USGS)
Context and pre-conditions
• Resources
– Landsat MSS, 4-band data
• the primary long-term source of EO data
– Climate and weather data records for polar observation sites
• help establish a local baseline for estimation and
comparison.
– Elevation data
• Help understand and extrapolate terrestrial temperature
lapse rates from observation sites to test sites.
– GeoBrain by GMU
– GloVis or Z39.50 client
General Approach
Identify 30-50 LANDSAT row-path
image sites (in tundra, boreal
forest, and edge) from the mid-late
1970s and early 2000s
calculate and post the change
values as registered
maps/coverage services
Identify suitable imagery pairs
for comparison
Difference the images to identify
changes in the forest landscape
Download and subset
imagery pairs (using standard
catalog interfaces)
Classify the imagery