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Who in the Baltic Sea
Region is affected by
Climate Change?
ASTRAs preliminary results of vulnerable sectors
ASTRA Stakeholder Workshop
26 October 2006
Gdansk
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Overview
Objective of talk: give an overview of some potential
exposure units and provide terminology
Urban area
Coastline
Energy
Transport
Water
Tourism
Objective of workshop: assessment by participants,
brainstorming on adaptation options
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
General Observations
Climate Change is mainly framed in terms of GHG
mitigation and impacts
Since knowledge about the extend of many climate
change impacts on the local scale is quantitatively
uncertain…
… adaptation has to focus on the sensitivity of exposure
units and increasing adaptive capacity.
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Vulnerability Assessment
Who is vulnerable to what?
Impact
e.g. flooding,
sea level rise,
less snow
exposure
Mitigatio
n
Klaus Eisenack
Exposure unit
e.g. urban area, coastline, water
supply, energy sector,
transportation, tourism
sensitivity
adaptive capacity
Adaptatio
n
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Urban Area
Urban settlements, inhabitants and infrastructure
Exposure Units
• Private and public buildings
• Places, cultural heritage
• Communication infrastructure
(consequently: rescue services)
• Waste treatment
Potential Impacts
• River floods: extreme precipitation
events, snowmelt, increased
average streamflow, risky time
shifting from spring to winter
• Storm surges: wind,
tides / sea level rise
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Urban Area
Exposure Units
• Private and public buildings
• Places, cultural heritage
• Population
Potential Impacts
• Hail and wind storms
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Urban Area
Exposure Units
• Population
• In particular: old, very young, chronically ill
Potential Impacts
• More frequent heat waves:
deaths in summer
• Less deaths in winter
• Air quality problems (formation of
pollutants due to higher temperature
and sunlight)
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Urban Area
Further Exposure Units
• Waste treatment
• Infrastructure (communication, transport, water, energy, etc.)
Further Potential Impacts
• Landslides
• Rainfall, humidity, heat, insulation: changed stress on buildings
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Coastline
Coastal shores and shores of large rivers and lakes
Exposure Units:
•
•
•
•
Coastal infrastructure
Flood protection infrastructure
Coastal ecosystems
Cliffs
Impacts
•
•
•
•
Sea level rise
Storm surges
River floods
Coastal erosion,
changed sedimentation patterns
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Water
Water for drinking, irrigation and industrial use
Exposure Units
•
•
•
•
•
Water utilities
Water supply systems and infrastructure
Sewage systems
Public health
Water intensive economic sectors
Impacts:
• Flooding: pollution, damage to infrastructure
• Sea level rise: salinization
• Higher temperatures (with pollution): quality, eutrophication, algae
blooms
• Increasing average streamflow and extremes, changed timing of water
supply (snowmelt), droughts: changed supply
• Increasing temperatures, irrigation during droughts: increasing demand
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Energy
Energy for household, public and industrial use
Exposure Units
•
•
•
•
Transmission lines
Hydropower
Wind power
Energy utilities
Impacts
• Storms and hail (transmission lines, wind energy)
• Changed timing and increased
average streamflow
• Flooding: damage to infrastructure
• Higher temperatures (cooling water, efficiency
of thermal electric generation,
transmission capabilities)
• Higher temperatures and urban heat islands:
increased energy demand in summer,
decreased in winter
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Transport
Transportation sector and infrastructure
Exposure Units
• Harbours (transport conditions)
• Airports (accidents, delays,
indirect effects from rescheduling)
• Railway (delays,
indirect effects from rescheduling)
• Road traffic (accidents, winter maintenance)
• Transport infrastructure
Impacts
•
•
•
•
•
Extremes: precipitation, rainstorms
Extreme temperatures (mechanical failure)
Humidity (fog), snow, sea ice
Wind conditions
Floods
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Tourism
Local tourism business and tourism industry
Exposure Units
• Winter tourism / summer tourism
• Coastal tourist facilities
• Dependency on coastal resources
Impacts
• More precipitation and
changed sunshine patterns
• Warmer summers,
warmer water (and changed water quality)
• Warmer winter: snow conditions
• Sea level rise
• Flooding
• Changes in alternative destinations
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Adaptation
What is the adaptive capacity of exposure units?
Who is responsible for managing them?
Who can support them? Are there strategic alliances?
Who will hinder them? What can be done to overcome
barriers?
Are national programmes needed?
Are local key-actors needed?
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Thank You for Your Attention!
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Telegraphenberg C4
14473 Potsdam
Germany
Email:
[email protected]
[email protected]
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research
Make a Choice
Urban Area: Urban settlements, inhabitants and
infrastructure
Coastline: Coastal shores and shores of large rivers and
lakes
Water: Water for drinking, irrigation and industrial use
Energy: Energy for household, public and industrial use
Transport: Transportation sector and infrastructure
Tourism: Local tourism business and tourism industry
Klaus Eisenack
Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research