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EE535: Renewable Energy: Systems, Technology & Economics Session 1: Introduction EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Reading/Reference List • Renewble Energy Focus Handbook, Elsevier 2009, ISBN: 978-0-12-374705-1 • Hughes Electrical and Electronic Technology, Pearson Education 2008, ISBN: 978-0-13-206011-0 • Energy Switch, Craig Morris, New Society Publishers, 2006, ISBN: 978-0-86571-559-2 • Sustainable Energy – without the hot air, David JC MacKay, UIT Cambridge Ltd 2009, ISBN: 978-0-9544529-3-3 • Mayo Energy Audit 2009-2020, Wilson & Lynch, Sustainability Institute 2008 EE535 • www.renewableenergyfocus.co m • www.withouthotair.com • http://www.iwea.com • www.sustainability.ie • www.wikipedia.org • http://www.undp.org/energy/act ivities/wea/drafts-frame.html • http://www.ren21.net/pdf/RE20 07_Global_Status_Report.pdf Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Reading/Reference List • Wind Energy Handbook, Burton, Sharpe, Jenkins, Bossanyi, Wiley 2001, ISBN: 13:978-0-471-48997-0 • Energy Systems and Sustainability, Boyle, Everett, Ramage, Oxford University Press 2003, ISBN 0-19926179-2 • Renewable Energy, Boyle, Oxford University Press 2004, ISBN 0-19-926178-4 • Renewable Energy, Sorensen, Academic Press 2000, ISBN:012-656152-4 • Introduction to Energy, Cassedy, Grossman, Cambridge Uni Press1998, ISBN 0 1521 63106 8 • Energy Economics, Quantitative Methods for Energy and Environmental Decisions, Kaplan, McGrawHill 1983, ISBN 0-07-033286-X Research Papers Referenced on Slides and Assigned Reading as Course Progresses EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Course Objectives • Key concepts in renewable energy technologies • Ability to model and cost renewable energy projects. • Awareness of political and business issues relating to renewable energy Assessment: 50% Examination, 50% Assignment EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Course Outline • • • • Motivations and Fundamentals Energy Conversion Processes Energy Usage Generation Technologies – – – – – – Wind Power Photovoltaics Solar Thermal Bioenergy Ocean Energy Hydro • Storage and Transmission • Planning, Costs and Economics • Future Trends and Investment EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 The Big Picture • This generation is using the earth’s finite resources much faster than they can be regenerated • It’s estimated that we burn in 1 year what it took nature 15,000 years to make • We are endangering the standard of living of future generations – Energy / Resources Poor – Pollution (incl. climate change) – Biodiversity (largest mass extinction of species in the past 65 million years) EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Motivations that drive today’s energy discussions • Fossil fuels are a finite resource – Cheap oil and gas will probably run out in our lifetime – Needed for plastics and other essential materials • We’re interested in security of energy supply – Each nation / economic block needs security to protect industry and essential services – Have our fossil fuels peaked? • It’s very likely that fossil fuels change the climate EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Peak Oil • • • • • Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. Hubbert proposed that fossil fuel production in a given region over time would follow a roughly bell-shaped curve "Hubbert's peak" can refer to the peaking of production of a particular area, which has now been observed for many fields and regions. Hubbert's Peak was achieved in the continental US in the early 1970s. Oil production peaked at 10.2 million barrels a day. Since then, it has been in a gradual decline. Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel reserves (oil reserves, coal reserves, and natural gas reserves) are discovered, production at first increases approximately exponentially, as more extraction commences and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline. Production Lags Discovery Please Read: Hubbert’s Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Production Forecasts, Alfred J. Cavallo, Natural Resources Research,Vol. 13,No. 4,Oct December EE535 Stephen Daniels, 2009 2004 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory#cite_note-cavallo-4 Who uses the world’s oil? USA & Canada, 27% Former USSR, 5% Latin America Japan Africa India, 3% Europe, 19% Rest of World India USA & Canada Rest of World, 19% China, 10% AfricaJapan, , 3% 5% EE535 Latin America, 9% Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Former USSR Europe China Source: sustainability institute Projected Price of Oil Projected Price of Oil Price per Barrel 250 200 150 Price 100 50 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Year EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Source: sustainability institute Conclusions of the Hirsch Report • • • • • • • • • • World oil peaking is going to happen - some forecasters predict within a decade, others later. Oil peaking could cost economies dearly - particularly that of the U.S. Oil peaking presents a unique challenge - previous transitions were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary. The real problem is liquid fuels for transportation - motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships have no ready alternative. Mitigation efforts will require substantial time - an intense effort over decades. Both supply and demand will require attention - higher efficiency can reduce demand, but large amounts of substitute fuels must be produced. It is a matter of risk management - early mitigation will be less damaging than delayed mitigation. Government intervention will be required - otherwise the economic and social implications would be chaotic. Economic upheaval is not inevitable - without mitigation, peaking will cause major upheaval, but given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble. More information is needed - effective action requires better understanding of a number of issues. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#cite_note-127 EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf Security of Supply • Over 90% of Ireland’s total primary energy requirements are met by imported oil, coal, and gas. • Slow rate of development of indigenous renewable energy sources • Does the ‘Balance Sheet’ add up? – What is Ireland’s energy gap – Are there enough renewables to cover our requirements • What are the social and economic consequences of – Substantially increased energy costs? – Intermittent and Uncertain Supply? http://www.energybulletin.net/node/13646 EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 http://www.ucc.ie/serg/pub/SOS-R2.pdf How Much Electricity is Generated in Ireland? • Installed Capacity is about 4,700 MW • Peak Demand over 4,000 MW • Instantaneous Power varies between 1,200 MW and 4,000 MW • Electricity Generated per annum c. 22 TWh (22,000 GWh) Source: SEI 2003 EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Ireland Electricity Generation Contribution to Fuel source ESBCS electricity supply (2007) Average contribution to Irish supply (2007) Coal 26% 18% Gas 41% 55% Oil 9% 6% Peat 10% 6% Renewable 9% 11% CHP (Combined Heat & Power) * 5% 4% Impact from ESBCS Irish average Environmental measure CO2 emissions EE535 625g per kWh (kilowatt hour) Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 538g per kWh Renewables – primarilty wind and hydro Ireland’s Electricity Generation Infrastructure ESB Power Stations - Thermal Station Capacity (MW) Bellacorick Shannonbridge Lanesboro Moneypoint Great Island Marina Aghada Poolbeg Tarbert North Wall 40 125 85 915 240 115 525 1,020 620 266 ESB Power Stations - Hydro Fuel Type Station Peat Peat Peat Coal Oil Gas Gas Gas/Oil Oil Gas/Oil Ardnacrusha Pollaphuca Golden Falls Leixlip Carrigadrohid Inniscarra Cliff Cathleen's Falls Clady Turlough Hill (pumped storage) Capacity (MW) 86 30 4 4 8 19 20 45 4 292 Independent Power Producers •Edenderry Power 120 MW Peat •Synergen 400 MW Gas •Huntstown 343 MW Gas EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Source SEI 2003 Renewable • Renewable energy is energy generated from natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat—which are renewable (naturally replenished). • Although by definition non-finite, renewables are constrained by technology and infrastructure capable of harvest • While most renewable energy projects and production is large-scale, renewable technologies are also suited to small off-grid applications in rural and remote areas, where energy is often crucial in human development EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Renewable Energy Sources • Direct Solar – Solar Thermal – Photovoltaics • Indirect Solar – – – – Hydro Power Wind Power Wave Power Bioenergy • Non-Solar Renewables – Tidal Energy – Geothermal EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Economically Attractive • Finding new energy sources is not difficult – What is difficult is finding new sources of economically attractive energy • It is essential to be able to estimate the cost of energy produced by different methods EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Problems with Renewables • Intermittency / Fluctuations – (the wind doesn't always blow nor the sun always shine) and that this has not been adequately factored into discussions of their potential – Requirement for significant storage • • • Social and Environmental Impact – Food Capacity – Land Usage – Aesthetic • • • • Accessibility Technology Maturity Cost Availability of transmission net • • EE535 Greater use of renewable energy is seen as a key component of any move to combat climate change, and is being aggressively promoted as such by the new U.S. administration and by other Without new storage technologies that can overcome intermittency, much of the decarbonization of the economy will have to come from nuclear, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and energy efficiency New energy storage technologies could greatly increase the role of renewables, but none are currently in sight Little rigorous economic analysis of renewable technologies Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Peaking Generation Mid-merit generation Baseload Generation System demand Electricity Demand Profile 6am midday 6pm Time of Day EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 midnight Renewables Capacity in Ireland Installed Capacity is about 4700 MW; Peak Demand over 4000 MW; EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Carbon & Climate Change • Human fossil- fuel burning causes carbon dioxide concentrations to rise • Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas; • Increasing the greenhouse effect increases average global temperatures (and has many other effects). EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Carbon & Climate Change Source: http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/withouthotair/c1/page_6.shtml EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Carbon & Climate Change • The burning of fossil fuels sends about 7 gigatons of CO2 per year into the atmosphere • The biosphere and the oceans send about 440 gigatons and 330 gigatons of CO2 per year into the atmosphere EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 The Balance Sheet • Consumption – – – – Transport Heating and Cooling Lighting Information Systems and Gadgets – Food – Manufacturing EE535 • Renewables Production Capability – – – – – – Wind Solar Hydroelectric Wave Geothermal Nuclear?? Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Without hot air pg 22 The Energy Gap • What is Irelands energy gap • Can we live on renewables? • Options for reducing consumption? EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Assignment • As a class we are going to produce a comprehensive study of renewable energy in Ireland and attempt to put a roadmap to sustainability in place • Working individually or in teams, you will produce a comprehensive report on an agreed topic relating to power generation, storage, management, utilization, distribution, financing • Your report will be in the format of a book chapter. • You will be expected to pitch-out to the class on your study later in the term EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009 Ideas? • Solar Power Satellites • utility-scale solar thermal power utilityscale solar thermal power • Hydro Storage facilities • Spirit of Ireland • Cold Fusion EE535 Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009