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Climate change and forest
genetic diversity
Michele Bozzano
IPGRI
Climate change and forest genetic
diversity
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Climate change – the problem
International context
Case studies
Climate change and FGR in Europe
Research needs and Concluding remarks
Global climate change is not a
recent phenomenon
Forest trees have continuously
responded on climate change
New is the speed of change
New is the
degradation of the environment
Gösta Eriksson
Forest genetics
modified
Factors of importance in case
of rapid global change
Possibilities to acclimate
Dispersal ability
Existing additive variance in
important traits
Mutation rates in these traits
Speed of evolution
Mating pattern
Gösta Eriksson
Forest genetics
Climatic conditions suitable for growth of species A
Gösta Eriksson
Forest genetics
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability
http://www.grida.no/climate/
ipcc_tar/wg2/pdf/wg2TARch
ap11.pdf
http://www.grida.no/climate/
ipcc_tar/wg2/411.htm
http://www.frameweb.org/ev_en.php?ID=1123_2
D2=DO_TOPIC
http://www.climate.org/CI/asia.shtml
http://www.ipcc.ch/
pub/tpbiodiv.pdf
http://unfccc.int
http://www.unep-wcmc.org/climate/index.html
http://www.biodiv.org/programmes/c
ross-cutting/climate/default.asp
Case study
Australia
THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION
Trevor H. Booth
and Tom Jovanovic
Ensis Forests
Determining Tree Species
Climatic Requirements and
Climate Change Impacts
on Their Distributions
THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION
Booth & Jovanovic (2005)
Climatic change study for AGO
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CSIRO Marine & Atmos. Res. scenarios
DARLAM & Cubic Conformal
2030 & 2070
31 tree species
THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION
THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION
Hughes et al. (1996)
Vulnerable Euc. hotspot
Present
THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION
CC 2030
CC 2070
Of possible interst: Matching
Trees and Sites”. ACIAR
Proceedings No. 63
http://www.aciar.gov.au/web.nsf/doc/JFRN-5J474N
To try to have a free copy write to:[email protected]
specifying the country and the use you wish to do with it
Climate change and FGR in
Europe
• Fourth Ministerial Conference on the
Protection Forests in Europe (MCPFE),
Vienna, Austria, 2003
– Vienna Resolution 5: Climate change and
sustainable forest management
• Workshop on ‘Climate change and forest
genetic diversity: Implications for
sustainable forest management in
Europe, Paris, France, 15-16 March 2006
Jarkko Koskela IPGRI
Climate change and FGR in
Europe
Key issues in Europe
• Adaptation of forest trees
• Forest management
• Policies and economic considerations
• Conservation of forest genetic resources
under climate change
Adaptation of forest trees
Climate change and sessile oak (Quercus petraea)
Current distribution:
Observed
Simulated
Future distribution 2080:
Gain
Stable
Loss
Simulations with BIOMOD model
Thuiller 2003, Global Change
Biology
Adaptation of forest trees
• Simulations are often based on the
‘climatic envelope’ approach
• The responses are not likely to be simple
and straightforward
• Genetic processes in tree populations
can modify their ecological niches
– at individual level (plasticity, individual
heterozygosity, changes in gene
expression) the responses can be fast
Adaptation of forest trees
• How fast a tree population respond to
climate change? Answers from:
– Long-distance transfer of forest
reproductive material
– Provenance trials
– Theoretical simulations
Adaptation of forest trees
• Experimental evidences:
– Long-distance transfer results in most
cases to rapid differentiation of
populations (e.g. landraces in exotic
species; American oaks and conifers in
Europe)
– Tree populations have undergone
profound genetic differentiation as a
result of natural selection (based on 50-yr
provenance trials)
Adaptation of forest trees
• Migration
– The current tree species in Europe have
gone through selection process based on
their capacity to migrate during the
glacial-interglacial changes (extinctions of
many species and genera (Magnolia,
Liriodendron, Nyssa,Taxodium, Sequoia)
during the process)
– Can be an efficient mechanism to
withstand climate change
Adaptation of forest trees
• Problems for migration
– Spontaneous migration of tree species is
unlikely in Europe today (intensive
management, fragmented landscapes)
– Landscape is not empty but filled with
existing plant species -> interspecific
competition
– Can be a slow process
Adaptation of forest trees
• Careful transfer of forest reproductive
material based on scientific results have
the potential to accelerate adaptation of
forest trees to climate change in Europe
• The effects of climate change on tree
populations are different in various parts
of Europe (temperature, droughts)
Research needs
• Understanding
• Mitigate (CO2 storage + environment
restoration)
• Safeguard the species and their genetic
diversity