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Where did The Career begin? Have you seen the eggs? Good luck with larger birds 24/05/2017 1 Impacts of Climate Change on Birds a review of 256 years of research 24/05/2017 2 Climate in a nutshell What is climate? Average weather in an area Köppen’s climate regions define zonal structure of environmental conditions on earth Weather is determined on macroscale by cells of circulating air masses Air pressure systems and their variability – ENSO, NAO, AO etc. determine regional weather variations and climatic regimes and regime shifts 24/05/2017 El Nino/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic oscillation, Arctic oscillation Teleconnections between systems. Definition Teleconnection - A strong statistical relationship between weather in different parts of the globe. For example, there appears to be a teleconnection between the tropics and North America during El Niño. 3 Climate Change in a nutshell Climate is always changing But many of the previous ”climate changes” have been stronger and some also faster Current warming is taking place in a period when we should expect an approaching Ice Age. An older model predicted shift of trend towards cooling around 2015 Are there counteracting effects on climate, which cause warming and delay for some time the threatening approach of Ice Age? An important note: Human role in the current climate change is irrelevant for the ecological study of impacts of climate change 24/05/2017 Climate Cycles, e.g. NAO Human activities as a cause of current Climate Warming We can study climate and weather impacts on ecosystem and its components without committing ourselves concerning the role of human impact in current warming 4 NAO time series for the recent 55 years NAO was predominantly positive from 1982 to 1995 Winter NAO, most often used in ecology, has decreased since 1995 and the annual NAO shows no trend Will the temperatures rise continuously following the predicted models? 24/05/2017 Nobody knows, I guess NAO, koko vuosi ja ed. talvi lintuasema-aineistojen kausi vuosi talvi (XII-III) 4.000 Poly. (talvi (XII-III)) Poly. (vuosi) y = -0.013x 2 + 0.3221x - 0.7814 R2 = 0.1522 3.000 2.000 1.000 0.000 -1.000 -2.000 -3.000 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 5 Five models’ prediction of future Ta change 60-90 °N global Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 24/05/2017 6 How Climate Warming may affect birds? migratory tendency within species/population may change or even vanish altogether (migrants become sedentary) Timing of events (spring and autumn migration, breeding, moult) may change. Lengths of migratory and sedentary stages may change Distribution ranges during breeding and/or winter may change and this may lead to changes of community structure in both summer and winter regions Migratory routes and stopover sites may change Abundances (population sizes) may change. Traits of birds may change, eg. size, proportions, condition measures All these changes may be 24/05/2017 Behavioural and or otherwise due to plasticity allowed by the reaction norm or they may be evolutionary selective changes 7 How we should approach Climate Change Impacts? individualistic approach – track the response of individuals from day to day through its annual cycle and whole life community/ecosystem/geographical approach – monitor range shifts and changes of community/ecostystem structure 24/05/2017 Should we first understand what happens at the lower organizational levels of individual/population and predict the outcomes at higher levels or Should we study the Climate Change Impacts at all levels simultaneously, and leave the connection from individual and population to community at a later stage? Taken that the models of Climate Change predict a correct order of the magnitude and speed of change, we have so little time to do all steps in the ”right” order, that it is better to proceed at all fronts simultaneously I will concentrate on examples of the individualistic approach in this review 8 Historical data and climate variability Long time series 24/05/2017 9 An example of useful Finnish long time series: does the Wagtail break the ice in spring (a premature picture)? 140 130 Day (92= 1 April usually) 120 110 Wagtail ("icebreaker")arrival Ice Break of the River Aura 100 Ice Break 3rd degree polynomial Wagtaila arrival 4th degree polynomial 90 80 24/05/2017 1998 1988 1978 1968 1959 1949 1939 1929 1919 1909 1899 1889 1879 1869 1859 1849 1839 1829 1819 1809 1799 1789 1779 1769 1759 1749 70 10 Climate of Northern Europe – previous warming period 1870-1940 Ten year moving averages of NAO indices 2 1.5 DJF 1 JFM FMA MAM 0.5 AMJ MJJ JJA 0 JAS ASO SON -0.5 OND NDJ ANNUAL -1 Linear (ANNUAL) -1.5 35 32 29 26 23 20 17 14 11 08 05 02 99 96 93 90 87 84 38 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 78 75 72 81 18 18 18 18 18 18 69 -2 Source: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/indices.data.html#naostatmon Source: Kalela 1946 24/05/2017 11 Comparison of dependence of first arrival on temperature between different climate ”regimes” Temperature responses in different warming/cooling periods In the Skylark, an early migrant,the spring temperature affects significantly the timing of spring arrival (df = 1, F=18.59, p <0.0001). The temperature*period- interaction was not significant (df = 2, F = 0.07, p = 0.9334) as in all thirteen study species. In the Swift, a late migrant, timing of spring arrival was not dependent on spring temperature (df = 1, F = 0.08, p = 0.7795). The temperature*period interaction: df = 2, F = 0.14, p = 0.8724. In the recent period first individuals are observed earlier because of increased observer activity Rainio et al. (unpublished) 24/05/2017 12 Lapwing – the classic example of range shifts attributed to climate change 24/05/2017 13 Earlier warming impact studies summary 24/05/2017 Mainly range shifts were studied Phenological or breeding studies were not done The role of other factors were discussed, but there was little possibility to measure their separate roles, e.g. habitat change effects on wintering and/ or breeding grounds Best overviews are those of Kalela, e.g. 1949 14 Recent Climate Change and its Impacts A review of behavioural changes at individual and population levels 24/05/2017 15 Phenology – theoretical predictions spring migration breeding moult autumn migration wintering length of stay in breeding area 24/05/2017 number of breeding attempts reproductive effort and result time used for migrations wintering duration birds turn from migrants to permanent residents Phenological changes may have consequences on population parameters 16 Spring arrival – all species one locality 210 163 lajia kaikkiaan 82 lajista 35 saapumisvuotta y = 0.0032x2 - 0.4031x + 109.51 2 y = 0.0029x - 0.4142x + 111.46 R2 = 0.5227 2 R = 0.5045 180 150 120 90 60 30 1965 24/05/2017 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 17 …arrival time of migrants (Lehikoinen et al. 2004, review) Response type Upper 95% Number of time series (unit) Lower 95% Average response confidence limit confidence limit Trend, FA (days/year) 590 -0.342 -0.373 -0.403 128 -3.382 -3.959 -4.535 203 -2.472 -2.901 -3.331 225 -0.137 -0.100 -0.223 149 -1.350 -1.636 -1.921 153 -1.433 -1.761 -2.089 NAO, FA (days/unit change of NAO-index) Local temperature, FA (days/ ºC) Trend, MMT (days/year) NAO, MMT (days/unit change of NAO-index) Local temperature, MMT (days/ ºC) 24/05/2017 18 Autumn departure – all species one locality Syysmuutto 400 Viimeinen havaittu 350 300 250 200 y = 0.2298x + 286.47 2 R = 0.3022 150 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 Average delay of 5 days 1976-1999, Half of the advancement of spring pmigration 24/05/2017 19 …departure time of migrants (Lehikoinen et al. 2004) Dependence of departure dates on temperature are less well understood and more variable In Rybatchi (Kaliningrad d.) timing of autumn migration is determined by spring arrival and hence spring weather This contradicts the general prediction of later departure 24/05/2017 20 Things are more variable and more complicated than simple analyses suggest More detailed studies with well know model species, e.g the Pied Flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca 24/05/2017 21 A 5 Jun H A J 1 Jun 29 May Arrival time Arrival of the Pied Flycatcher in Finland Ahola et al. (2004) Malaga 24/05/2017 Cagliari 5% 27 Apr 23 Apr 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year 22 Difference between medians of arrival and laying (days) 9 May B Bron Lyon Md 13 May Hamburg Bamberg Tortosa 17 May 1 May Turku De Bilt 21 May 5 May Växjö 95% 25 May 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 199522 2000 Year …and more complicated: responses of different sexes (Rainio et al. unpubl) 24/05/2017 23 Do migratory distances change? Expectation: migratory species may start to winter closer to the breeding areas The Greenfinch appears to behave as expected (German data) 24/05/2017 24 Do migratory distances change? But the Starling behaves in another way The reason to the difference is something else than winter weather, perhaps changes in agriculture and waste management 24/05/2017 25 Do migratory distances change? Summary of the first more extensive analysis 24/05/2017 German recoveries have been analyzed 15 (Source: Fiedler, Bairlein & Köppen 10 2004) Many other sources of variation 5 Distribution of observed changes in 0 a haphazard sample of 30 species in the figure show slight average tendency towards shortening Finnish recoveries not yet available neg sig neg pos pos sig 26 Condition improvement with climate amelioration? – NAO response 24/05/2017 27 Breeding performance relationship of breeding success and time Are there general rules? shifts to earlier start does it mean improvement of breeding success? does it mean increased opportunities to second broods? or something else The critical points are 24/05/2017 the degree of change – a few days advancement need not mean anything, and Another thing is to look what the ”food of birds is doing” as a response to local climate changes 28 …of breeding time 24/05/2017 intraspecifc spatial var. Visser et al. interspecific Crick et al. 1997: BTO Nest Record Scheme 65 species, 1971-95 51 breeding has become earlier 20 of these statistically significantly 1 sign. later Crick & Sparks 1999: 36 species,1939-95 57 % earlier 37 % significantly so 31/36 timing of breeding explained by temperature and/or precipitation 29 Temperature effects on breeding time Dunn (2004) an ”availability” sample of observational data for 5-60 years per species timing is temperature related in most (temperate) species, 79% (n=57 species) median advancement 2.3 days/°C in this sample (range from no effect to 7 days/°C) Finnish data not yet available 24/05/2017 20 n of species 15 10 5 0 -6 -4 -2 0 advancement (days/degree) 30 What would this mean in the future? linear extrapolation: mild vs. strong scenarios of warming by 2100 would mean advancement of breeding by less than a week vs. two weeks Visser, Both and Lambrechts (2004) 24/05/2017 this is probably too simplistic, because ”there is no a priori reason to expect that all components of food chains will shift their phenology at the same rate” 31 Mismatch of breeding time with food 24/05/2017 32 …mismatch of food availability and breeding 24/05/2017 Invertebrates are responding directly and fast to phenological changes, warming of spring and accompanying plant phenology Birds respond slower for one or other reason mismatch of timing of maximal food availability and breeding follows Pied Flycatcher in the Netherlands (Both et al. 2001) timing of migration has not followed climate change (but cf. our results in a more northern study area) but the sedentary Great Tit is also suffering from mismatch, only 1-2 days shift against 5 days in food prebreeding conditions may preclude the females from laying(?) 33 Changes of breeding effort and success very little and variable information so far Järvinen (1994): clutch size higher in warmer springs in Lapland; Winkel & Hudde (1997): clutch size large in warmer and earlier springs in Pied Flycatcher Clutch size is increasing with climate warming, but the mismatch cases appear to contradict this And even in the same target species other situations exist Sanz (2002): no change in clutch size in Tits Best current generalisation is perhaps that response in clutch size varies among species and does so also within species between areas Clutch size of pied flycatchers 7,0 6,8 6,6 Clutch size 6,4 6,2 6,0 5,8 5,6 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 YEAR 24/05/2017 34 Impacts on birds: summary 24/05/2017 Changes of arrival time of migrants ***strong evidence departure time of migrants *weak evidence shortening of migration, giving up migration **some evidence of breeding time ** medium evidence of breeding performance *weak evidence of timing of moult ohardly studied at all mismatch of food and breeding *medium evidence annual survival *weak evidence population trends (increase/decrease) *weak evidence distributions: northern and/or southern borders *weak evidence 35 Kaarlo Linkola 1923 when studying plant phenology 24/05/2017 36