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Kyoto Gap through to 2012 Source: Point Carbon Camco – climate change and sustainable development company 0 AAU supply and demand Camco – climate change and sustainable development company 1 AAU supply and demand • Intro, sense of market and buyers • Sense of AAU market structure • Buyers and sellers expectations • AAUs, GIS vs JI track 1, 2, [flexibility, additionality] and the difference in European context, different buyers. • Policy context and development (important issues related to AAU trading market – “hot air” and “hard greening”) • Volumes and potential size of market – potential supply and demand • It’s a buyers market – first mover advantage for sellers. • Major players (Japanese, EBRD, CEE) Camco – climate change and sustainable development company 2 AAU supply and demand (All in millions AAUs) Country Total Reserved/commitment Surplus (estimated) GIS allocation 119 53 66 40 Ukraine 4604 3616 988 N/A Czech 902 732 170 100 Romania 1.3 0.78 0.52 100 Bulgaria 610 353 257 N/A Poland 2650 1940 710 N/A Lithuania 227 109 118 55 Estonia 196 107 89 10 to 30 Russia 16600 10600 6000 800 to1000 Hungary 542 395 147 45 to 55 Slovakia 73 Latvia Camco – climate change and sustainable development company 3