Download Slajd 1 - lodz.pl

Climate change
and ecosystems
JOANNA WIBIG
 Changes of timing of
phenophases
 Changes in ranges of species
and biomes

Biodiversity

Ecosystems productivity
Phenology has been in the focus of
scientists since the studies of Karl Linné
and Robert Markham
Phenology: the study of the timing of
recurring biological phases, the causes of
their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic
forces, and the interrelation among phases of
the same or different species.
Phenology can be divided into:
Phytophenology
Agrophenology
Zoophenology
Spring phases
Summer phases
Fall phases
Annual cycle
Early spring phases (pollination
of hazel and coltsfoot) occur
now 10-20 days earlier than 50
years ago
Spring phases (birch leaf
unfolding, lilac and apple trees in
full bloom) now occurs 5-15 days
earlier than 50 years ago
The rate of phenophases changes
(in days per year) birch leaf
unfolding
Phytophenological records in the
Baltic Sea Basin have the tendency to
earlier appearance of sprong and
early spring phases. These trends
seems to be stronger in the baltic
region than in the whole Europe.
Ar the same time there is tendency to
later appearance of fall phases.
The lenght of vegetation period
defined as a time of appearance and
loss of leaves by different tree species
has been lenghten significantly.
An average trend of spring phases is -2
days per decade The fall phases are
later +1.6 days per decade. The
vegetation period becames longer 3.6
days per decade.
Birds:
changes in ranges (breeding
places, wintering places,
migration routes),
changes in migration timing,
chasnges in breeding timing,
changes in live length,
changes in productivity.
Birds try to winter as
close to the breeding
place as possible, so their
migration routes became
shorter, and the birds use
less energy for migration.
Greylag goose (gęś gęgawa) from Sweden wintered in
Spain, now most of them winter in the Netherlands.
In the transition period those who choose the
Netherlands use less energy so their chance to survive is
higher.
Cranes (żurawie) wandered to Spain, now nore and
more of them winter in Meklemburgia, or even in
Poland in Western Pomerania.
ROBIN
(RUDZIK)
LEPWING (CZAJKA)
Many Polish birds, which wintered in Western Europe (France
Spain) now try to winter in western Poland . At the moment it
concerns single specimen or small groups, but the tendency is
evident.
It does not mean that warming favours nigrating birds.
Inceasing of Sahel region has tremendous and negative effect
for enormous amounts of birds wintering on the south of
Sahara, because enlarging desert takes away suitable
wintering areas. The amount of storchs in Poland in 30 per cent
is related to amount of rain in Sahel. In dry years a lot of birds
falls on the Sahel, where they stay in their return way to
Europe. Similary, it is suspected that climateic changes will
have an adverse impact on shore birds (ptaki siewkowe), which
breed in Arctic (Syberia) and winter in Africa and have only 1 or
2 breaks in their journey (a few thousands of km!) . Climate
changes cause that capturing of food and energy will be more
difficult and takes more time.
Changes in timing
of migration
Timing of migration (measured as a day of arrival to European
breeding places and dates of departure) change with climate
changes.
The majority of species come to breeding places in the Central
Europe earlier during last 20-25 years.
The rate of these changes is strongly differentiated among species.
The greatest changes concern
birds wintering in Europe, the
smallest those wintering in
equatorial and southern Africa.
(the changes are smaller in case
of birds migrating on larger
distances).
The degree of change of arrival date is different for those
coming as first than the last examples of the same species.
Stork (bocian)
10 days earlier
Nightingale (słowik
rdzawy) 7 days earlier
Lepwing (czajka)
20 days earlier
Barn swallow
(jaskółka
dymówka)
A week earlier
Arrivals
Skylark
(skowronek)
11 days earlier
House martin
(jaskółka
oknówka )
12 days earlier
Cuckoo (kukułka)
7 days earlier
Changes in breeding terms
Breeding terms for many
species are well correlated
with temperature in thee
time preceding breeding, the
warmer spring the earlieer
breeding.
Climate warming causes
accelerating of laying eggs
for many species, but this
acceleration is different for
different species.
Earlier nesting– more eggs– better viability
of nestlings – higher reproduction level
Climate changes cause a diminishing of differences in quality of
birds in specific species. Those examplares, who laid their eggs
later and have smaller hatches (because they were not able to
collect food and produce eggs earlier) are now in better
position. The differences in the reproduction level among birds
of the same species diminish.
Changes in productivity
The amount of food for
nestlings change in the
breeding season.
The amount of insects
especially caterpillars
has its peak.
The date of laying eggs was evolutionary adjusted to the peak
of food for nestlings.
Temperature in early spring is a crucialk factor determining
the moment of peak of catterpillars. When it is warmer this
peak comes earlier.
Birds try to forecast this moment. They
evolutionary have got mechyanisms of
forecasting on the basis of spring
temperature.
That is why terms of laying
eggs are correlated with
spring temperature. They try
to bring forth yopung exactly
in time of peak of caterpillars.
Climate changes disturb this proces , because the
thermometers of birds and their food are not identical
Because of warming a
peak of caterpillars
comes earlier. Birds are
not able to manage with
evolutionary adjustment
to new situation. They
accelarate a laing eggs
time but not enough.
Decision rules of insectivorous
birds (green line) and insects (red
line) according to timing of laying
eggs.
Together with temperature rise the insects accelerate their peak in
caterpillars amount faster than the birds accelaerate their time of
laying eggs. That is why the young birds appear after the peak of
caterpillars.
Departure
Among non-climatological factors are:
atmospheric CO2 concentration
natural disturbances (floods, wildfires)
land use
habitat fragmentation
absence of suitable habitats due to human activities
Distributional shifts are the result of two different mechanisms
operating at local scale:
expansion into new areas due to climate
amelioration
local extinction, which reduces the distribution
Thermal factors
Disadvantages of warm winters




lack of hardening
lack of winter cooling
better conditions for pests
lack of snow cover
Advantages of warm winters


milder winters
longer vegetation period
Humidity factors
 higher evapotranspiration
 more precipitation in winter
 lack of water from snow melting at
the beginning of vegetation period
 lack of snow cover
Light factor
In the Baltic region there is a few tree
species which ranges moved to the north
and/or higher altitudes.
Beech
buk
Lime
lipa
In Scandinavia ranges of beech,
lime, oak and spruce have changed
paralelly to the cumulative sum of
temperature of winter season in the
last 8000 year. The contemporary
rate of climate change is faster
from analogous changes in the
past.
Oak
dąb
Spruce
świerk
Currently the naturally-regenerating
holly, a good climate indicator, has
expanded east and northward of
the previously reported natural limit,
coinciding with the advance of 0°C
January isoline.
Birch brzoza
Pine
sosna
Holly
ostrokrzew
Rowan
jarzębina
Willow wierzba
In the Swedish part of Scandes
mountain range upslope shifts of 100150 m of birch, pine, rowan, spruce
and willow is reported, coinciding
with 0.8°C increase in mean
temperature since the late 19th
century
Animals generaly copy the changes
in structure of the environment; that
is why changes in ranges of animal
species are parallel to changes in
ranges of their food
Changes in ranges of some species
can result in extinction of them,
because of habitat losses,
fragmentation, delays of
transformation and so on…
Preparation to winter
Hatching of
frogs
Climate-related invasions
The clearest evidence for a climatic trigger for large-scale
changes in ecosystem structure occurs where a suite of species
with different histories of introduction spread en-masse during
periods of climatic amelioration
Wasplike spider, previously restricted to
southeastern Europe, in recent decade
has expanded its geographical range to
the northern parts of Europe, colonizing
Germany, Poland, Denmark and Sweden
Tygrzyk paskowany
Among factors causing rapid geographical expansion of wasplike
spider are:
increase of numbers of sunny and dry days in summer
floods of large rivers in Europe
establishment of large open habitats due to deforestration
and drainage
Weather-regime changes are among important factors controlling
invasion of parts of Europe (including the Baltic region) by the leaf
miner moth – an important pest of horse-chestnut trees.
leaf miner moth
horsechestnut
tree
devastated
by leaf
miner moth
Caterpillar nymphs winter on leaves of
horse-chestnut lyind on the ground.
They can survive enen -25 °C. First
grown up individuals appear at the end
of April. The eggs are laying singly
along main nervation of the leaves.
Larvas grow inside leaf blade.
Metamorphosis of grown up
caterpillars take place inside. It can be
even 700 caterpillars. The leaves with
caterpillars fall. Trees captured by leaf
miner moth have second flowers in the
autumn, but there is no chance for
fruits. Additionally second flowering
weaken trees. They are sick in witer
and easy to frozen. In Poland leaf
miner moth has usually 3-4
generations during one year.
Changes in biome boundaries
Altitudinal shifts of vegetation are well documented for many
parts of the Earth. Higher temperatures and longer growing
seasons, associated with climate change, have released new
areas for colonization by certain plant species
For the Baltic region one robust
conclusion can be drawn:
endemic mountain plant species are
threatened by the upward migration of
more competitive sub-alpine shrubs and
tree species
Higher winter temperatures and frost episodes
Due to winter hardening, changes in mean and minimum
temperatures of the coldest month and number of frost days
do not increase the risk for frost damage.
Damage occurs during frost episodes when the plants are not
adequately hardened, it can happen at any time of the year,
but is common after a longer period of warmer temperatures in
spring when dehardening has been initiated.
Higher winter temperatures can induce change in plant
phenology, as thermal requirements for dehardening and
budburst will be fullfiled earlier.
Species that are strongly regulated by light will be less
affected than those strongly regulated by temperature.
Heat spells and reduced summer precipitation
Both an increased
frequency of heat spells
and reduced summer
precipitation increase the
risk for drought stress.
Soil water potential,
ambient light intensity,
temperature and wind
influence the severity.
Water shortage lowers the
transpiration,
photosynthesis and uptake
of mineral nutrients.
The response is non-linear
affected by duration and
frequency of drought stress.
The severity of heat spells
and drought will increase
the risk for forest fires
Changes in autumn and winter precipitation
In areas with an increased
precipitation during autumn
and winter, the risk of
waterlogging will increase.
This can cause anaerobic
root conditions and kill parts
of the root system.
The plant will become more
susceptible to drought stress
and attacks by patogens.
Due to climate change, a
reduction in snow cover is
expected.
In regions with a thin snow cover
and low winter temperatures, the
soil will be deeply frozen.
Soil frost increases the risk of
winter desiccation, occurring
when the trees are exposed to
higher temperatures in spring
increasing transpiration, but the
frozen water can not be taken
up.
There is evidence of recent productivity increases for ecosystems
within or near the Baltic catchment region. Overall growth trends
for European forest ecosystems have been positive during the last
50 years.
increased temperatures
the fertilisation effect of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition
management avtivities
increased CO2 level
In some cases, recent climate change may be
associated with growth reductions. Dittmar et al. (2003)
showed a declining growth trend for European beech
(Fagus sylvatica) at higher altitudes during the last 50
years. Correlations with climate parameters suggest that
an increased preponderance of wet, cloudy summers
coupled with late frosts reduced vigour and growth for this species. The
negative growth trend was most pronounced for the period 1975-1995,
even though increasing CO2 levels, N deposition and an extended
growing season would all be expected to have positive impacts on
production.
Senstivity of growth in
Scots pine (left) and
Norway spruce (right)
in different parts of
the Baltic Sea basin
compiled from the
findings of SilviStrat
project (Lindner et al.
2005).
Rovaniemi - the
northern boreal forest
Kuopio- southern boreal
forests
Chorin and Grillenburg
temperate forests in
northern Germany.
The end