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DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR ASSESSING WHIRLING DISEASE RISK What is a Risk Analysis? • Risk analysis is a tool intended to provide decision makers with an objective, repeatable and documented assessment of the risks posed by a particular course of action. • Risk analysis is intended to answer; • What can go wrong?—the hazard identification, • How likely is it to go wrong and what would be the consequences of its going wrong?—the risk assessment, and • What can be done to reduce either the likelihood or the consequences of its going wrong?—risk management. Risk Analysis • Hazard identification – Myxobolus cerebralis • Risk assessment • Release assessment • Exposure assessment • Consequence assessment • Risk estimation Release Assessment FACTORS AFFECTING PARASITE INTRODUCTION +/System 1 (source) System 2 Overt disease pathways for parasite introduction and dispersal viability of parasite during introduction Exposure Assessment FACTORS AFFECTING PARASITE ESTABLISHMENT +/System 1 (source) System 2 Overt Disease Encounters between parasites and hosts Infection of worm host Proliferation of infectious stages Consequence Assessment FACTORS AFFECTING DISEASE MANIFESTATION IN FISH +/System 1 (source) System 2 Overt disease pathways that are conducive to the development of the parasite and whirling disease in the fish Fry Juveniles Adults Species Boaters, anglers Recreational Activities Stream enhancement Restoration Activities Infected fish products Commercial Activities Fish Transfer Source Introduction Natural Dispersal Free myxospores, triactinomyxons Avian Wild fish Worms Species susceptibility Biotic Community Population density Fish Introduction frequency Introduction size Spatial/Temporal Overlap Establishment & Proliferation Habitat use Organisms life histories Worms Temperature Environment Population density Substrate Flow System Modification Strain susceptibility Species susceptibility Size Age Fish Virulence Pathogen Disease Dose Environment Temperature Goals of Risk Assessment Workgroup • To complete the risk assessment exercise begun at the 2003 WDS • Develop examples of how a risk assessment exercise can be used • Publish a manuscript on a RA model for whirling disease in Fisheries • Make model accessible by providing to National Partnership for further dissemination