Download Anticipatory Anthropology

Thinking like a futurist
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Area of anthropology that
uses the perspective,
theories, models, and
methods of anthropology in
an anticipatory manner.
Allows individuals, citizens,
leaders, and governments to
be better able to make
informed policy decisions
Improving the community's
or society's chances for
realizing preferred futures
and avoiding undesired ones
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The term ‘anticipatory
anthropology’ was
introduced by
anthropologist Marion
Lundy Dobbert in 1984
Anthropologists in
preceding years had
different terms for the
same idea:
futurology,
futuristics,
anthropology of the
future, and
speculative anthropology
of cultural futures
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Futurists:
Try to suggest things
that might happen in
the future, so that
people can decide what
they want to make
happen.
By looking at current
trends, for example, it is
possible to make a
projection of what
might be the case in the
future
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The World Future
Society is a nonprofit,
nonpartisan scientific
and educational
association of people
interested in how
social and
technological
developments are
shaping the future
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By studying the
future, people can
better anticipate
what lies ahead.
They can actively
decide how they will
live in the future, by
making choices
today and realizing
the consequences of
their decisions.
http://superstructgam
e.org/
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The future doesn't
just happen: People
create it through
their action -- or
inaction -- today.
If we can predict
how culture will
react to specific
imputes, we can
make some
predictions about
society
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The Society strives
to serve as a neutral
clearinghouse for
ideas about the
future
Ideas about the
future include
forecasts,
recommendations,
and alternative
scenarios.
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President Kennedy's
dream of placing a man
on the moon and
predicting it would
occur before 1970
This dream was
embraced by America,
and supported by an
aggressive funding of
research and
development, and the
implementation of a
time factored plan
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The vision—the
dream, the
scenario—was
realized in 1969
when homo sapiens
took a first step onto
the moon's pristine
dusty surface—“an
achievement that
awed the world”
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This sequence—the
‘dreaming’ followed
by the ‘planning’ of
actions to be
implemented in
pursuit of the
dream—comprise
the nature of futures
studies and
planning.
Also reflects human
culture itself.
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Anthropologists
have been actively
involved in the art of
anticipation from a
cultural perspective
for well over 30
years.
Example: Margret
Mead
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Mead was persistent
in her efforts from
1943 to 1977 to apply
anthropology in
anticipating and prefiguring the future
Likely inspired the
emergence of
‘futures studies’ in
the mid-50's by her
interest and research
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She viewed human
future as "neither
predetermined nor
predictable: it is,
rather, something
which lies within
our hands, to be
shaped and molded
by the choices we
make in present
time."
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Sharing a pattern, or
system, of culture
enables people to
communicate and
interact with one
another
appropriately and
efficiently.
Systems also allow
us to acculturate the
next generation
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Cultural Systems
also allow us to
predict future social
systems
We can effect future
cultural systems
now by our choices
now
Identifying those
systems is where
anthropologists
come in…
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Anthropologists became
involved in anticipation
during social impact
assessment research.
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They assessed the social
gains and losses that
might be expected to
accompany a program of
planned change.
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So applied research
projects are
concerned with
assessing the future
impacts of present
policies
Thus the birth of
anticipatory
anthropology
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Futurists reflect their
culture without
knowing it;
Speaking for the world
and forget that it is their
cultural biases, their
disciplinary education
and their social
character that is being
expressed
Futurists must
acknowledge the
existence and the value
of cultures, attitudes
and objectives that are
different from their own
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Futurists must be aware
of etic systems of values
and beliefs being
projected to someone
else's future
This may not end in the
people willingly
participating in the way
of life that we would
create for them (ex.
eating beef in India)
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Anthropology
sensitizing people to
other ways of life,
values and
worldviews
Some VERY
different from their
own
Anthropology
brings appreciation
for the potentiality
of cultural diversity
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Understanding of the human
condition
Ethnographic fieldwork
approach
First hand observation of,
and participation in, the
daily behavior of the group
under study for a prolonged
period of time (over one
year) in which the myriad
details of everyday life,
seasonal and unusual events
and happenings may be
experienced.
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Because of this,
anthropology can
contribute to discussion
and decision making by
citizens, activists,
leaders and
governments of a given
society, community or
organization.
Especially where
serious attention is paid
to the means whereby
preferable futures may
be achieved, and
undesirable ones
avoided
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What does Razak hope will happen?
Truly collaborative emic/etic futures studies
approach to the visioning and crafting of the
future will become a standard approach used
in the practice of foresight planning
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Collaborative
research creating an
interface with
theory, hindsight,
practice and
objectivity to
provide a necessary
broader context to
the visioning
process
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The ethnographic
approach used in
conjunction with
necessary quantitative
data gathering and
analysis, can straddle
the divide between an
etic (outsider point of
view) based approach
and an emic-centered
approach to
anticipatory planning.
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Anticipatory planning is really at the core of
Futurism
Anthropologists have a unique set of tools for
this kind of planning
Anthropologists should be involved in regional
planning programs
Anthropologists should be involved in
predicting social trends impacting
development
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So, if anticipatory anthropology seeks to
understand cultural trends as they effect social
organizations…
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What have we learned?
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Enter Raymond Scupin
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Globalization – the
growth of global
interdependence
Colonialization – the
establishment of settler
colonies, trading posts,
and plantations with the
metropole's own
population, colonialism
deals with this and the
ruling of new territories'
existing peoples.
(largely economic over
the last 100 years)
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Preindustrial societies
Foragers
 Horticulturalist
 Pastoralist
 Intensive agriculture
 Overall limited impact
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Global Industrialism spreads after the
industrial revolution
Agribusiness (Mechanized Agriculture)
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Green Revolution
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Fossil fuels, Chemical Fertilizers, Genetically
Modified Seeds, Pesticides
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All energy intensive
Bhopal incident, Rivers in the Midwest, other
drainage
Air and Water Pollution
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Not very green
Automobile, coal power, industry
Greenhouse Effect and global warming
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CO2 build up…Natural or human-made? Doesn’t
matter if we can see the effects…
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Global growth over human history
Paleolithic: 10 million total population over the
entire period
Neolithic: 300 million by 1 A.D. (advent of
agriculture 10,000)
Industrial Revolution: Demographic Transition
theory…
1900: 1.6 billion
1950: 2.5 billion
2000: + 6 billion
2040: + 8 billion
2050: + 10 billion
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Assumes a close connection between fertility and
morality rates and socio-economic development.
Phase one = high fertility rate is countered by a high
morality rate
Foragers such as the !Kung
Phase two = population increases quickly due to lower
morality rates and higher fertility rates
Industrial Europe in the 1500s
Phase three = fertility rates drop due to family
planning and increasing costs of child rearing
Germany/Italy today
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U.S. 307,571,579 (300 Million)
One birth every 7 seconds
 One death every 13 seconds
 One international migrant every 29 seconds
 Net gain of one person every 9 seconds
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World 6,787,153,505 (6.7 Billion)
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Do we need to control population? Or will
technological and economic adaptation allow us to
continue to grow?
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In the wealthy industrialized Core countries of
the U.S., Japan, Europe
Low growth: below ZPG for some (Germany)
Peripheral Countries such as India,
Bangladeshi, etc
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Extremely fast growth rate
Globalization & death rate falls
High rates of population growth:
3% doubles population every 25 years
4% doubles population every 15 years
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Industrial technology: high energy usage, such
technology necessary to compete in world
market
Wealthy core countries: 15% of world
population
Uses 80% of energy reserves
India, China, Mexico show high rate of
increasing energy use…
The loss of biodiversity
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Biodiversity is the genetic and biological variation
with and among different species of plants and
animals
About 50% of all species live in tropical rainforests
Global trends toward resource overuse leading to
loss of biodiversity
Greatest level of mass extinction in global history?
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Pessimistic and Optimistic views on globalization
Limits to growth model
 What can the world sustain? Do we have the right to destroy all other
species for our own continued expansion?
Pessimistic forecasts
 The Doomsday Model
 Club of Rome; predicted that at current resource use levels would
lead to scarcity and economic collapse
 Run out of resources in 100 years
Logic of growth model
 Assumes that natural resources are infinite and that economic growth
can continue indefinitely without long term harm to the environment
 Argues population growth a stimulus for, not deterrent to, economic
progress
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Technology will solve all problems
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Ethnographic Research on the green revolution
Positive and negative assessments
 Case Study=Sikh village in India…adopted green
revolution successfully
 Villagers took economic risks that paid off
 Villagers willing to learn new skills
 Ethnographers contribution…his detailed report lead to
his involvement in the planning process
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Knowledge can solve all problems
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Ethnographic research in Haiti
 Intensive agriculture
 Peasant farmers cut forests for fuel (cannot afford to
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buy fuel on wages)
Do not value replanting local varieties of trees (took too
long to grow…)
Introduction of new tree species
New “tree farms” owned by peasant co-ops
Success lead to localized production of for-profit
commodity
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Conferences/Summits on Climate
Change
Organization for Economic Co-operation
and Development
 Represents industrialized nations
Kyoto Protocol established targets and
limits for greenhouse gases
 Bush Administration withdrew from
the accords
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Sustainability Model
 Suggests that societies globally need
environments and technologies that provide
subsistence
 Model encourages resource management for
future generations
 Encourages growth that does not damage the
environment
 Requires global movement, not nation by
nation solutions
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Multinational capitalism spreads
 Are multinationals the new social institution?
 Multinationals reorganizing industry
 Eventually assume management of global affairs?
Problems?
Positive assessment of Multinationals?
 Jobs, technology, capital. Enhanced global economic
development leads to reduction in poverty.
Negative Assessment?
 Cheap labor, pollution, inequalities. Create benefits
for wealthy elite, majority of population doesn’t
participate in modernization
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Nation-state too small?
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Global problems need multilateral solutions
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Unified European continent?
Population, environment, economy, terrorism
World Bank, NAFTA, European Union, UN
Nation-state is too large?
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Growth of the European Union
Perceived threat to ethnic identify
Local level interests not being served
Localization of identity and the new identity movements like
Scottish and Quebec independence
THESE MOVEMENTS ARE A REFLECTION OF
GLOBALIZATION AND THE WEAKINING OF
NATIONALISTIC TIES!!!
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Globalization of the world economy
Changes in the socialist countries
 State administered economies failed to compete globally
(with one notable exception…)
Soviet Russia falls…Russian leaders call for economic
reform
 Adaptation of free-market capitalism
 Cultural patterns lead to substantial hardships
 Rise of crony capitalism (appointing people without
proper skills because of loyalty) and corruption
Eastern Europe
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Eastern Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania,
Bulgaria, and Yugoslavia all reformed economies in the 1990s
China; liberalization of economy. Little political reform.
Necessity of free speech and civil liberties for expanding
market economy?
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Globalization creates secularization
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Religion becomes separated from economy/environment
Individualization of religion
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Fundamentalism; response to globalization’s challenge to
traditional beliefs
Islamic fundamentalism
Christian (end of times cults)
Jewish (zionist colonialists)
Hindu (anti-Islamic movements)
Buddhist (anti-Chinese movements)
Responses to secularization
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Re-emphasis on tradition
Religious substance as a means of restoring meaning to individuals
lives
 Gives people meaning and understanding of otherwise chaotic
lives
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Fearful of losing culture, values, traditions
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Active recording of local responses to
globalization.
Understanding of dislocations, loss of identity
Understanding of localization and
sustainability
Understanding of specific cultural aspirations
Synthesis of local studies with studies of global
conditions
Anthropological studies of trends can help
understand the globalization process