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Data on the world drug situation:
Gaps and opportunities
Sandeep Chawla
Director
Division for Policy Analysis and Public Affairs, UNODC
Outline
• Why collect and analyse data on the drug situation?
• Existing data and indicators of the world drug situation
–
–
–
–
Production
Seizures
Prices
Use
• Data availability
– present gaps
– opportunities moving forwards
Drug production
Opium and cocaine production:
Methods developed, reasonable certainty
9,000
Opium (metric tons)
8,000
Opium
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Afghanistan (since 1994)
Myanmar (since 2001)
08
07
06
05
04
Lao PDR ('92, '96, '98, since 2000)
not directly comparable w ith previous years
1,000
800
Cocaine
600
400
200
Colombia (since 1999)
Peru (since 2000)
Bolivia (since 2003)
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
0
99
Cocaine (metric tons)
1,200
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
95
94
0
Global cannabis production: estimation remains a challenge
•
•
•
•
Wide range of potential cultivation areas
Wide variety of cultivation practices
Many different cultivation scales and intensities
Different processing and products
Outdoor areas
potentially
suitable for cannabis
cultivation
Global ATS production, 1998-2007:
Great uncertainty, and need for critique and improvement
ATS manufacture estimates (mt)
1,200
1,000
800
600
500
445
480
478
494
2004
2005
2006
400 312
200
0
1998
2000
2001
ATS Range Estimate
2003
ATS Point Estimate
Drug seizures
Average percent of countries
reporting any seizure data
Drug seizure data – average improvements in recording
HOWEVER Africa and Oceania still lack capacity, and data
quality remains an issue
100%
95%
86%
93%
78%
80%
90%
77%
71%
77%
69%
65%
60%
40%
17%
13%
20%
0%
Americas
Asia
Europe
average 1988-1997
Africa
Oceania
average 1998-2007
Global
coverage
Drug prices
UNODC prices data collection: opium and coca
products
• Monthly farm-gate prices
– coca leaf and derivatives (Bolivia, Colombia, Peru)
– opium (Afghanistan, Myanmar)
• Monthly trader prices in production areas
• Export value estimation
– opium (Afghanistan)
• Consumer prices and purities
– collected through ARQ
Price data collection challenges
• Very limited and outdated data:
– Wholesale level (country to country)
– Street level prices (except in some high income countries)
• Purity
– Poorly monitored and reported
• Value added along trafficking routes
– Poorly understood
Drug use
Data incredibly limited: drug use prevalence
estimates
Drug use data
• Very few objective data on drug use
– Even fewer direct measures of trends in drug use
• Expert perceptions of trends
– most common source, but unknown validity
• Improve reporting against the 2000 Lisbon consensus?
– Drug use: general population, young people
– “High risk” drug use: injecting, risk behaviours
– Drug problems
Moving forward:
Increasing data collection and
consolidation
Data collection
• Build data collection capacity
– Develop drug information systems in regions of need
– Support studies of drug use prevalence
– Encourage collaborative links between countries within regions
• Use a strategic focus to direct activities
– Build the SMART programme
– Development of a new programme to improve drug use data
collection
• Maximise integration with other data collection
– Other health surveys and studies
– Other regional drug information systems
Methodological issues
• The ARQ and BRQ
– Are they still fit for purpose?
– Can we improve reporting processes and outcomes?
• Data are often unclear or inconsistent
– How should UNODC deal with such data?
– Are additional review processes warranted?
• How can regional and global estimates best be made?
– Methods of data imputation
– Logic behind extrapolation of estimates to other countries
Addressing uncertainty
•
•
•
•
Explicitly acknowledge and estimate uncertainty
Increased transparency, critique and consultation
Shared approach to data collection and interpretation
Better coordination and collaboration
– With member states
– With drug monitoring organisations
– With other external partners and experts
Revising global data collection: March 2009
mandate
• CND meeting in Vienna
– Debates about current data
– Debates about future processes
• Political declaration re-stated the importance of data to
inform evidence-based drug policy
• Resolution passed that tasked UNODC with:
– revising the Annual Reports Questionnaire
– Improving and streamlining integrated data collection at the
global level
Revising global data collection: the coming year
Review process being undertaken by UNODC:
1. UNODC Expert meeting in July 2009: Vienna, Austria
2. Recommendations made for revisions to both process and
tools – for consideration in November
3. Intergovernmental Expert Group meeting in November
2009: Vienna, Austria
4. Revised ARQ process and questionnaire developed for
consideration by CND
5. UNODC reporting back to CND in March 2010:
consideration and ratification