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What Geoshare may do for us Hermann Lotze-Campen Geoshare Workshop Purdue, 11 Sep 2014 Integrated Assessment Modelling at PIK MAGICC (climate) GHG emissions Aerosols Temp. change Climate change Extreme events Sea-level risey REMIND (energy) Energy system CO2 Albedo Scenarios constraints Bioenergy costs LUC emissions Bioenergy demand CO2 price LPJmL (vegetation) Land use pattern Constraints (yields, water, land) MAgPIE (land use) Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014 2 Calories and Livestock Share International Trade ptb Population Regional Demand Income / GDP 1- ptb Socio-Economic Data SelfSufficiencies Comparative Advantage Regional Supply regional - cost and investment data Biophysical inputs (LPJmL) MAgPIE overview - crop yields land / water constraints vegetation and soil carbon Land Pools on 0.5° grid on 0.5° grid based on FAO, IUCN and WRI on 0.5° grid Transport Costs (JRC) Cropping Patterns MAgPIE Water Scarcity Deforestation Rate Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014 3 MIP on climate induced changes in agricultural prices by 2050 (AgMIP Global Economics Team) Nelson et al., PNAS, 2014 Special issue Von Lampe et al., Hermann Lotze-Campen Ag.Econ. 2014 11 Sep 2014 4 Applications of a Geoshare infrastructure - data • Acknowledging spatial and temporal variability (soil, water, productivity, climate impacts, emission factors, …) • Bringing more geography into economics (land quality, transportation, market access) [e.g. precision farming] • Linking monetary and biophysical dimensions • Linking modelling outputs to poverty and food/nutrition security (where are the (poor) people?) • Provision of (alternative) standardized input data sets • Thinking beyond cropland: reducing uncertainties on all major landuse types (crop, pasture, forest, urban, …) and livestock • Model validation, exploring of uncertainties, model improvement • Harmonization of inputs for model intercomparisons • Accessability, transparency, replicability of modelling results (e.g. AgMIP GlobEcon results, IAM SSP results) (see also Lotze-Campen, ERL 2011) Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014 5 Applications of a Geoshare infrastructure - workflows • Integration of global and regional modelling approaches (e.g. on crop modelling, hydrology, CC adaptation) [and data sets] • Linking local management options to large-scale assessments • Standardizing the climate-biophysical-economics modelling chain for external users • Linking the agriculture and energy sectors • BUT: Who are the actual workflow users? • Possible way forward: Provide "reduced" versions of complex models for selected workflows for external users? • Can Geoshare/HUB be used for managing the AgMIP econ process? • Options for distributed funding: e.g. German BMBF-funded project with link to Geoshare (see also Lotze-Campen, ERL 2011) Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014 6 Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014 7 AgMIP Global Economics modelling standards • Definition of regions • Definition of sectors/crop groups: wht, cgn, ric, osd, sug, CR5 • GDP, Population • Agricultural productivity growth • Conversion from grid to regions/countries • Definition of output variables • CSV files for inputs/outputs • XLS pivot tables • R code for post-processing • Dropbox for data exchange • Group management: provide inputs and collect outputs • Needed: Software for iterative analysis/assessment of results Hermann Lotze-Campen 11 Sep 2014 8