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The Twin-Engines of Growth in Singapore: Employment Linkages and Structural Changes in Manufacturing and Services Prepared for “2006 International Symposium on Contemporary Labour Economics Labour Markets Mobilization and Economic Development in a Harmonious Society, with a Focus on Chinese Labour Markets" (December 16-18, 2006) by Assoc Prof Shandre M. T. and Tan Zhen Li Introduction and Scope • Emergence of the Services Sector Globally • Structure of Sectors in Singapore’s Economy Increasing GDP from services and manufacturing Increasing importance of services in employment • Linkages Between Manufacturing and Services: Twin Engines of Growth (ERC’s Recommendations) • Identification of Key Sectors and Employment Effects: InputOutput Tables • Policy Conclusion 2 Evolving M&S Sector Globally • Globalization – Open world market • Progress of manufacturing and services sector through promotion of export services •Expansion of service sector role as intermediate inputs 3 Gross Value-Added of Services Global trends in Services GVA trends Share of Services in Total Gross Value-Added in 1990s AAG rate of Svc in 1990s Share of Svcs in late 90s 80.0% Developed countries 70.0% Australia 6.0% 66.7% Germany 4.1% 61.1% Japan 3.2% 57.6% US 6.5% 62.9% Singapore 10.2% 56.3% Ireland 10.5% 56.0% Korea 13.6% 45.4% Mexico 22.0% 62.8% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% Developing countries 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Australia Germany Ireland Japan Korea Early 90s Mexico Mid 90s New Singapore Zealand UK US Late 90s 4 Employment in Services Global trends in Services Employment trends Share of Services in Total Employment in 1990s AAG rate of Svcs in 1990s 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% Developed countries Australia 2.0% 68.0% Germany 1.9% 58.9% Japan 1.5% 57.4% US 2.3% 67.6% Singapore 3.8% 53.1% Ireland (95-95) 7.1% 58.0% Korea 3.6% 56.0% Mexico 2.9% 49.1% US UK Ne w Si ng ap or e (9 799 ) Ze al an d M ex ic o Ko re a Ja pa n Ire la nd (9 598 ) Developing countries G er m an y us tra lia 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% A Share of Svcs in late 90s Early 90s Mid 90s Late 90s 5 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 AAG (Abs) AAG (Rate) Health & Social, Community & Personal Services Public administration and defence Education 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 -20000 AAG (Abs) Health & Social, Community & Personal Services Public administration and defence Education AAG (Abs) Real Estate, Business Services & IT Ireland (1995 to 1998) Financial Services Health & Social, Community & Personal Services Public administration and defence Education Real Estate, Business Services & IT Financial Services Transport, Communications and Logistics Hotels and Restaurants 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Transport, Communications and Logistics 6000 4000 2000 0 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Hotels and Restaurants 12000 10000 8000 Wholesale & Retail Health & Social, Community & Personal Public administration and defence Education Hotels and Restaurants Transport, Communications and Logistics Financial Services Real Estate, Business Services & IT Wholesale & Retail Singapore in 1990s Wholesale & Retail AAG (Abs) Real Estate, Business Services & IT Financial Services Transport, Communications and Logistics Hotels and Restaurants Wholesale & Retail Employment growth in Developing countries Korea in 1990s Global trends in Services 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% AAG (Rate) AAG (Rate) Mexico in 1990s AAG (Rate) 6 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Importance of services sector for sustained growth of the Asian countries Demand for services is highly income elastic that is the demand for services increases concurrently as the income for Asian countries rises Demand for services such as education, health care, telecommunication services, and travel services are expected to expand faster than the demand for manufactured and agricultural goods Services activities are becoming an importance source of export growth for the Asian countries. Services activities are becoming the faster growing cross-border and FDI activities in East and South-East Asia for the past decade 7 Key Trends in Singapore Economy Table 1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators: 1999-2005 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 7.2 10.0 -2.3 4.0 2.9 8.7 6.4 Manufacturing 13.6 15.3 -12.8 8.4 3.0 13.9 9.3 Services 6.0 9.0 1.9 4.0 3.3 7.6 6.0 Construction -8.8 -1.7 -1.2 -14.0 -9.0 -6.1 -1.1 Real GDP (2000 market price & % change) Share of Gross Value Added (%) Manufacturing 23.1 26.8 23.7 25.8 26.3 27.7 27.3 Services 63.6 61.9 64.5 63.5 63.4 63.0 63.8 Construction 7.9 6.3 6.1 5.4 5.0 4.3 3.7 Others 5.1 5.0 5.7 5.3 5.3 5.0 5.2 Manufacturing 21.0 20.8 18.8 18.2 17.9 17.3 21.4 Services 71.1 65.5 74.2 75.0 75.6 76.3 69.6 Construction 6.9 13.1 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.5 8.1 Others 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 3.5 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.0 3.4 3.2 Employment Share (%) Unemployment rate (average) Source: Thangavelu and Toh (2005) Services sector includes: Wholesale and Retail trade, Hotels and Restaurants, Transport and Communication, Financial Services, Business Services, other services 8 Structure of Sectors in the Singapore Economy Increasing GDP from Manufacturing and Services Sector – potential areas of growth Nominal GDP by Industry 120000 100000 80000 2000 2001 in Millions 60000 2002 2003 40000 2004 20000 0 Manufacturing Construction Services Others 9 Source: SingStat, 2005 Share of Electronics to Manufacturing Sector in Singapore: 1990-2004 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 Output Manu Exports Manu Emply 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 10 Increasing Importance of Services in Employment Increasing Share of Services in Employment, Decrease in Manufacturing 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Other Services Construction 0 1995 2000 2004 Manufacturing Share of Employment Source: MSRD, MOM Are there linkages between the two to account for such trends? 11 Product Composition of Singapore’s Exports (%), 1994 - 2005 Exports 1994 1999 2003 2005 Electrical & Electronic components and Machinery 45.6 55.3 50.8 58.8 Manufactured Goods 6.0 4.3 3.7 4.6 Chemicals & Pharmaceutical 5.7 8.0 11.8 11.4 Fuels and Petroleum Products 9.5 7.9 11.1 15.0 Textiles & Clothing 1.4 2.0 1.0 1.0 Transport Equipment 18.3 11.0 10.3 1.6 Food, Beverages, Crude Materials 4.4 3.3 1.9 2.2 Miscellaneous Manufactures 9.1 8.2 9.4 5.4 Export of Goods (values S$) $145,079m $196,004m $281,699m $386,919m Export of Services (values S$) $55,474m $40,158m $63,157m $85,435m Transportation 53.2 40.5 38.4 34.9 Travel 19.8 19.3 13.0 11.1 Financial & Insurance 0.7 5.9 8.7 9.4 Other Services 26.3 34.3 39.9 44.4 Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry, Economic Survey of Singapore, various issues; Yearbook of Statistics, Singapore, various issues 12 Importance of Linkage between M&S – Twin Engines of Growth ERC’s Recommendation for twin engines of growth: “A strong manufacturing engine contributes to growth of services, and likewise, a strong services sector makes factories in Singapore more competitive... Manufacturing will become more knowledge and research intensive... Services will become more exportable and its quality will be raised…” 13 Relationship between M&S Usage of intermediate services Demand for service/manufacturing inputs Eg. to complement manufacturing production or service implementation Splintering”: outsourcing of business-related services Eg. R&D, finance, logistics Change in Employment Structure Decline in manufacturing employment, shift to service sector “between effect” Increase in non-production employment or indirect labour within manufacturing itself “within effect” 14 Relationship Between M&S Demand Shares of Services and Manufacturing Outputs – 2000 (In per cent of total output per sector, data from I-O Tables 2000) Domestic Final Demand 11.2% 31.8% 35.2% 18.9% Exports Services Domestic Final Demand 7.0% Intermediate Input 6.2% Other Sectors Manufacturing 15.1% 69.1% Exports Manufacturing is highly export-oriented Services allocates more of its intermediate outputs back into its own industry Linkage between services and manufacturing is evident in intermediate inputs used reciprocally by both sectors 15 Input-output analysis Provides a complete picture of the flows of products and services in the economy for a given year Illustrate the flows between various industries and also between industries and the final demand sector These linkages allow estimates to be made of the extent to which industries contribute directly and indirectly to the various final demand sectors within a country • Greenhalugh and Gregory (2001) – UK • Franke and Kalmbach (2005) – Germany • Cho, Shon and Geoffrey (2000) – Korea • Paolo and Maliciani (2005) 16 Methodology and data sources Classify data from 1995 and 2000 input-output tables into 18 aggregated industrial sectors (over 150 industries) Compute output multipliers Compute employment multipliers for 1995 and 2000 using the output multipliers and employment data from Labour Force Survey data 17 Framework from Annex B Computation of output multipliers Expressing in matrix form, we have: X = AX + F X (1-A) = F X = (I–A)-1F Where I denotes the 4X4 identity matrix and (I–A)-1 is the Leontief output multiplier matrix Computation of employment multipliers Compute the total output figures, (I–A)-1final demand Compute the employment to output ratio, ei Multiply every entry in the (I–A)-1 matrix by ei will yield the corresponding employment multiplier 18 Methodology and data sources Use of the closed model • Treats private consumption expenditure in final demand as an endogenous variable as data on personal disposable income is not available • Includes the Keynesian multiplier effect and Leontief multiplier effect • Results in larger employment multipliers • Enables us to determine the total multiplier effect on output and employment 19 Share of Intra and inter-industry jobs created arising from a change in final demand in each industry (95, 00 & 04) Increase in Intra-industry Inter-industry Intra-industry Inter-industry jobs Intra-industry Inter-industry final jobs created(%) jobs created(%) jobs created(%) created(%) in jobs created(%) jobs created(%) demand in in 1995 in 1995 in 2000 2000 in 2004 in 2004 Food 40.84 59.16 39.92 60.08 42.19 57.81 Textiles 69.45 30.55 55.87 44.13 52.3 47.70 Paper 59.29 40.71 54.65 45.35 47.96 52.04 Petrochem 38.74 61.26 22.06 77.94 23.46 76.54 Fab Metal 43.76 56.24 36.74 63.26 34.22 65.78 Mach 58.42 41.58 53.28 46.72 52.21 47.79 Electric 49.54 50.46 38.88 61.12 32.05 67.95 Electronic 53.79 46.21 35.66 64.34 31.34 68.66 Medical 62.26 37.74 49.9 50.1 49.86 50.14 Trans 54.47 45.53 49.93 50.07 54.77 45.23 Other Mfg 54.96 45.04 52.74 47.26 49.08 50.92 Commerce 54.72 45.28 45.21 54.79 44.48 55.52 Comms 51.77 48.23 41.48 58.52 40.63 59.37 Finance 44.15 55.85 36.55 63.45 36.64 63.36 RE & Biz 51.76 48.24 54 46 55.55 44.45 CSPS 57.44 42.56 51.95 48.05 53.46 46.54 Construct 68.03 31.97 68.46 31.54 60.6 39.40 Others 66.84 33.16 63.99 36.01 64.65 35.35 20 Intra & inter-industry effects Inter-industry jobs created are higher for manufacturing and services industries as compared to industries like construction and others Increase in IntraInterE.g. final demand industry jobs industry jobs in created(%) created(%) in 2004 in 2004 Electronics 31.34 68.66 Finance 36.64 63.36 Construction 60.60 39.40 Others 64.65 35.35 21 Intra & inter-industry effects The employment spill-over effects from individual mfg industries to the services sector as a whole is stronger than that from the services industries to the mfg sector Increase in Share of total jobs (%) created in final 2004 in demand in Intraindustry Inter-industry Own Manufacturing Services industry sector sector Petrochem 23.46 10.96 51.83 Electric 32.05 10.08 47.62 Electronic 31.34 8.88 50.21 Commerce 44.48 5.08 43.15 Comms 40.63 9.30 42.31 Finance 36.64 4.24 50.52 22 Intra & inter-industry effects The employment spill-over effect within the services sector is higher as compared to that within the manufacturing sector Increase in Share of total jobs (%) created in final 2004 in demand in Intraindustry Inter-industry Own Manufacturing Services industry sector sector Petrochem 23.46 10.96 51.83 Electric 32.05 10.08 47.62 Electronic 31.34 8.88 50.21 Commerce 44.48 5.08 43.15 Comms 40.63 9.30 42.31 Finance 36.64 4.24 50.52 23 Structural changes in employment creation For the period from 1995 to 2000 and 2000 to 2004, there was a decrease in the share of jobs created within the same industry for most of the mfg industries This could reflect the move to higher VA industries and Outsourcing / production fragmentation Increase in final demand in Textile Petrochem Fab Metal Mach Electric Electronic Medical Finance RE & Biz CSPS (4) Change in share of total jobs created in (1995 and 2000) Own Manufactur- Services industry ing sector sector -13.59 2.67 9.03 -16.67 2.74 11.30 -7.02 1.09 4.99 -5.15 1.61 3.04 -10.66 1.48 7.68 -18.12 2.21 13.48 -12.35 1.55 8.97 -7.60 0.23 7.09 2.23 -0.16 -1.49 -5.49 0.97 3.52 (5) Change in share of total jobs created in (2000 and 2004) Own Manufactur- Services industry ing sector sector -3.57 -0.36 3.43 1.40 -0.38 -0.31 -2.52 -0.47 2.82 -1.07 -0.25 1.36 -6.83 0.17 5.82 -4.33 -0.28 4.22 -0.04 -0.39 0.64 0.09 -0.27 0.57 1.55 -0.52 -0.38 1.50 -0.08 -0.73 24 Structural changes in employment creation Increase in final demand in Petrochem Electronic Medical Commerce Comms Column (4) Column (5) Change in share of total Change in share of total jobs created in jobs created in (1995 & 2000) (2000 & 2004) Own Mfg Services Own Mfg Services industry sector sector industry sector sector -16.67 2.74 11.30 1.40 -0.38 -0.31 -18.12 2.21 13.48 -4.33 -0.28 4.22 -12.35 1.55 8.97 -0.04 -0.39 0.64 -9.51 0.91 7.55 -0.73 -0.05 0.97 -10.29 1.80 7.29 -0.85 0.91 0.26 Generally, the effects of the restructuring process on employment seem to be levelling off to a steady state equilibrium 25 Policy Implications & Conclusion • Our findings reveal the presence of strong employment linkages between different sectors of the economy, especially from the manufacturing to services sectors • It is suggested that jobs created arising from such employment linkages tend to be of higher skills content – In this respect, implementation of flexible labour market policy and initiatives to upgrade skills of workers will play a crucial role to create flexibility in the economy • The aim of Workforce Development Agency (WDA) to enhance the productivity and employability of the workers through training, retraining, and retaining workers in the labour market 26 Policy Implications & Conclusion Two key areas of concern as the industrial structure matures and companies fragment its components and production line: •The displacement effect of outsourcing on wage gap (skilled and unskilled wages) and on employment has not been thoroughly investigated in the economy •Sustainable productive improvements of the Singapore economy is the development of strong small and medium size enterprises (SMEs): –Formation of a cluster of SMEs that support the activities of the larger conglomerates These enterprises will provide employment to high VA workers providing commodities and services demanded by companies within and beyond Singapore 27 Thank you 28 Percentage change in share of employment in various sectors by occupational classification Overall Manufacturing Wholesale and Retail Trade Hotels and Restaurants Transport, Storage and Communications Financial Intermediation Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities Community, Social and Personal Services Agriculture, Mining & Quarrying and Utilities [1] Legislators, Senior Officials and Managers [2] Professionals [3] Technicians and Associate Professionals -2.60 2.05 2.26 8.59 4.58 8.66 [4] NonProduction Workers (Combining [1], [2] and [3]) 1.62 6.53 -0.03 -13.58 -14.76 1.94 33.19 -10.02 [8] Plant and Machine Operators and Assemblers [9] Cleaners, Labourers and Related Workers [5] Clerical Workers [6] Service Workers [7] Production Craftsmen and Related Workers -2.13 0.06 -2.04 14.22 -8.59 -6.20 -11.85 -11.26 11.42 24.39 -6.86 8.07 23.48 2.85 -11.88 18.10 9.40 6.48 -5.12 -4.46 36.80 -15.47 -0.52 61.80 -4.68 -4.75 2.55 -9.09 44.40 43.50 10.16 -1.59 1.61 0.34 -0.09 0.49 -9.31 -35.35 2.18 14.37 -15.31 19.78 3.18 2.66 -3.34 -35.46 -85.28 -29.41 -31.14 -1.68 -9.08 -1.74 -4.63 0.36 12.00 29.76 -14.51 17.08 -11.10 -2.07 7.06 1.51 -2.59 -6.04 -20.58 6.25 3.37 29