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“Most Influential Rating Agency in Asia” - Fixed Income Research Pool, 20012006, FinanceAsia. 此次信用循環正在醞釀另一波亞洲金融危機 嗎? 周彬 董事總經理 企業與政府評等亞洲區負責人 標準普爾 2007月8月14日 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Copyright (c) 2006 Standard & Poor’s, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 全球經濟一片晴空萬里? 變動率% 8 7 亞洲 6 全球 5 4 亞洲消費者物價指數* 3 2 美國 1 0 2004 e: 估計 f: 預測 資料來源:標準普爾, ^IMF全球經濟展望 2007 2005 2006e 2007f *未經加權平均計算,不包括太平洋國家 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 2. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 2008f 把握時機 0 100 東亞新興市場* 外債 / GDP, % -1 亞洲其它新興市場 90 拉丁美洲 -2 80 -3 70 -4 東亞新興市場 -5 60 亞洲其它新興市場 -6 50 拉丁美洲 政府赤字 / GDP, % -7 40 -8 30 2001 2002 2003 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 3. 2004 2005 2006 2001 2002 * : 不包括香港與新加坡 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 2003 2004 2005 2006 不受天氣變化的避風港 60 2004 2005 2006 50 本國借款比重, % 40 30 20 10 全球 亞洲 資料來源 : 標準普爾全球固定收益研究與 Thomson Financial 。 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 4. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 拉丁美洲 美好的夏天 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 5. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. …但並未陽光普及 外匯存底成長率 匯率升值幅度 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% 中國 南韓 泰國 菲律賓 根據最近可得之數據與2003年底之資料相比結果。 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 6. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 越南 尚未過度擴張 亞洲其它新興市場 拉丁美洲* 東亞新興市場(右) 45 84 國內信貸 / GDP, % 40 83 35 30 82 25 81 20 15 80 10 79 5 0 78 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 *: 不包括宏都拉斯。 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 7. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 2006 天氣預報下雨機率高 投機級評等 投機級評等 44% 51% AAA AA BB AAA B- AA- B 2005年12月 CCC AA- AA A+ A+ B+ 2007年年中 A A B+ BB- A- A- BB BBB+ BB- BBB+ BBB BB BB+ BBB BBB- BB+ 投資級評等 亞洲企業評等 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 8. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. BBB- 投資級評等 是季節變換嗎? JPM EMBI* 800 iTraxx Asia Ex-Japan Theoretical 5-year* (右) 90 80 700 70 600 60 500 50 400 40 300 200 JP Morgan EMBI Diversified Sovereign Spreads 100 20 10 0 0 Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun02 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 *截至2007年8月7日 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 9. 30 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 是季節變換!!! 受評等級較低之發行人家數逐漸增加 通常是信用循環可能轉向的前兆。 (%) (%) 45 14 12 40 10 35 8 6 30 4 全球 25 2 投機級評等違約率(右) 投機級評等發行人所占比重%(左) 資料來源:標準普爾全球固定收益研究與標準普爾 CreditPro@ 7.02 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 10. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Jan-07 Aug-07 Jun-06 Apr-05 Nov-05 Sep-04 Jul-03 Feb-04 0 Dec-02 Oct-01 May-02 Mar-01 Jan-00 Aug-00 Jun-99 Apr-98 Nov-98 Sep-97 Jul-96 Feb-97 Dec-95 Oct-94 May-95 Mar-94 Jan-93 Aug-93 Jun-92 Apr-91 Nov-91 Sep-90 Jul-89 Feb-90 Dec-88 Oct-87 Mar-87 Jan-86 Aug-86 Jun-85 Apr-84 Nov-84 Sep-83 Jul-82 Feb-83 Dec-81 May-88 亞洲 20 放眼望去的幾朵烏雲 • Global Imbalances(全球失衡)– Financing the US - Impairment to Trade flows - Impairments to Investment flows • Global Liquidity(全球資金流動性) - Risk adjustment - Leverage Financing - Carry Trade • Oil Price Hikes(油價高漲) • US-China Trade War(美國與中國大陸的貿易戰) CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 11. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 另一場風暴正在形成? CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 12. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 風圈形成中 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 13. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 放眼望去的幾朵烏雲 • Global Imbalances (全球失衡)– Financing the US - Impairment to Trade flows - Impairments to Investment flows • Global Liquidity(全球資金流動性) - Risk adjustment - Leverage Financing - Carry Trade • Oil Price Hikes(油價高漲) • US-China Trade War (美國與中國大陸的貿易戰) CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. 14. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Analytic services and products provided by Standard & Poor’s are the result of separate activities designed to preserve the independence and objectivity of each analytic process. Standard & Poor’s has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of non-public information received CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY. during each analytic process. 15. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.