Download 此次信用循環正在醞釀另一波亞洲金融危機嗎？

“Most Influential
Rating Agency in Asia”
- Fixed Income Research Pool, 20012006, FinanceAsia.
此次信用循環正在醞釀另一波亞洲金融危機
嗎？
周彬
董事總經理
企業與政府評等亞洲區負責人
標準普爾
2007月8月14日
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Copyright (c) 2006 Standard & Poor’s, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
全球經濟一片晴空萬里?
變動率%
8
7
亞洲
6
全球
5
4
亞洲消費者物價指數*
3
2
美國
1
0
2004
e: 估計 f: 預測
資料來源：標準普爾， ^IMF全球經濟展望 2007
2005
2006e
2007f
*未經加權平均計算，不包括太平洋國家
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2.
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2008f
把握時機
0
100
東亞新興市場*
外債 / GDP, %
-1
亞洲其它新興市場
90
拉丁美洲
-2
80
-3
70
-4
東亞新興市場
-5
60
亞洲其它新興市場
-6
50
拉丁美洲
政府赤字 / GDP, %
-7
40
-8
30
2001
2002
2003
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
3.
2004
2005
2006
2001
2002
* : 不包括香港與新加坡
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2003
2004
2005
2006
不受天氣變化的避風港
60
2004
2005
2006
50
本國借款比重, %
40
30
20
10
全球
亞洲
資料來源 : 標準普爾全球固定收益研究與 Thomson Financial 。
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
4.
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拉丁美洲
美好的夏天
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5.
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…但並未陽光普及
外匯存底成長率
匯率升值幅度
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
中國
南韓
泰國
菲律賓
根據最近可得之數據與2003年底之資料相比結果。
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
6.
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越南
尚未過度擴張
亞洲其它新興市場
拉丁美洲*
東亞新興市場(右)
45
84
國內信貸 / GDP, %
40
83
35
30
82
25
81
20
15
80
10
79
5
0
78
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
*: 不包括宏都拉斯。
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
7.
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2006
天氣預報下雨機率高
投機級評等
投機級評等
44%
51%
AAA
AA
BB
AAA
B-
AA-
B
2005年12月
CCC
AA-
AA
A+
A+
B+
2007年年中
A
A
B+
BB-
A-
A-
BB
BBB+
BB-
BBB+
BBB
BB
BB+
BBB
BBB-
BB+
投資級評等
亞洲企業評等
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
8.
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BBB-
投資級評等
是季節變換嗎?
JPM EMBI*
800
iTraxx Asia Ex-Japan Theoretical 5-year* (右)
90
80
700
70
600
60
500
50
400
40
300
200
JP Morgan EMBI Diversified
Sovereign Spreads
100
20
10
0
0
Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun02
03
03
03
03
04
04
04
04
05
05
05
05
06
06
06
06
07
07
*截至2007年8月7日
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
9.
30
Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.
是季節變換!!!
受評等級較低之發行人家數逐漸增加
通常是信用循環可能轉向的前兆。
(%)
(%)
45
14
12
40
10
35
8
6
30
4
全球
25
2
投機級評等違約率(右)
投機級評等發行人所占比重%(左)
資料來源：標準普爾全球固定收益研究與標準普爾 CreditPro@ 7.02
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
10.
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Jan-07
Aug-07
Jun-06
Apr-05
Nov-05
Sep-04
Jul-03
Feb-04
0
Dec-02
Oct-01
May-02
Mar-01
Jan-00
Aug-00
Jun-99
Apr-98
Nov-98
Sep-97
Jul-96
Feb-97
Dec-95
Oct-94
May-95
Mar-94
Jan-93
Aug-93
Jun-92
Apr-91
Nov-91
Sep-90
Jul-89
Feb-90
Dec-88
Oct-87
Mar-87
Jan-86
Aug-86
Jun-85
Apr-84
Nov-84
Sep-83
Jul-82
Feb-83
Dec-81
May-88
亞洲
20
放眼望去的幾朵烏雲
• Global Imbalances(全球失衡)– Financing the US
- Impairment to Trade flows
- Impairments to Investment flows
• Global Liquidity(全球資金流動性)
- Risk adjustment
- Leverage Financing
- Carry Trade
• Oil Price Hikes(油價高漲)
• US-China Trade War(美國與中國大陸的貿易戰)
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11.
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另一場風暴正在形成?
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12.
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風圈形成中
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
13.
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放眼望去的幾朵烏雲
• Global Imbalances (全球失衡)– Financing the US
- Impairment to Trade flows
- Impairments to Investment flows
• Global Liquidity(全球資金流動性)
- Risk adjustment
- Leverage Financing
- Carry Trade
• Oil Price Hikes(油價高漲)
• US-China Trade War
(美國與中國大陸的貿易戰)
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
14.
Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.
Analytic services and products provided by Standard & Poor’s are the result of separate activities designed to preserve the independence and objectivity
of each analytic process. Standard & Poor’s has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of non-public information received
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY.
during each analytic process.
15.
Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the written approval of Standard & Poor’s.