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Inter American Development Bank Washington D.C. May 9, 2008 Latin America: Golden or Leaden Casket ? John Chambers, CFA Managing Director Chairman, Sovereign Ratings Committee Standard & Poor’s Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Copyright (c) 2006 Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Sovereign Ratings Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 2. Sovereign Ratings Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 3. Sovereign Ratings Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 4. Quotation Merchant of Venice William Shakespeare Act II, Scene VII MOROCCO O hell! what have we here? A carrion Death, within whose empty eye There is a written scroll! I'll read the writing. Reads All that glisters is not gold Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 5. Ratings Latin America 1998* lowest 1998-2008 2008** Argentina BB SD (2001-2004) B+ Bahamas A- (2003) A- (2003-08) A- Barbados A- (1999) BBB+ (2004-08) BBB+ Belize BB (2000) SD 2006 B Bolivia BB- B- ( 2003-08) B- Brazil BB- B+ (1999-00,2002-03) BBB- Chile A- A- (1998-2002) A+ BBB- BB (2000-06) BB+ BB BB(1998-2008) BB B+*** SD (2005) B+*** B- (2000) CCC (2007) B- Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Rep. Ecuador Long-term foreign currency sovereign ratings * Jan 1 unless otherwise noted ** May 8, 2008 *** Credit Watch Negative Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 6. Ratings Latin America 1998* lowest 1998-2008 2008** El Salvador BB BB (1998-99) BB+ Guatemala BB (2001) BB-(2003-2005) BB Jamaica B (1999) B(1999-00,2003-08) B Mexico BB BB (1998-99) BBB+ Panama BB+ BB(2001-07) BB+ Paraguay BB- SD (2003-04) B Peru BB BB-(2000-03) BB+ B- (1999) B-(1999-2006) B+ Trinidad &Tobago BB+ BB+ (1998) A- Uruguay BBB- SD (2003) B+ B+ SD (2005) BB- Suriname Venezuela Long-term foreign currency sovereign ratings * Jan 1 unless otherwise noted ** May 8, 2008 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 7. GDP per capita annual growth Real GDP per capita growth Colombia Peru Asian regional average growth* 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -2% -4% -6% * Simple average of per capita growth of China, Indonesia, India, Philippines and Thailand Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 8. General Government balance / GDP General Government balance / GDP Uruguay Suriname Brazil Peru Panama 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0% Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 9. 2006 2007 2008 External financial sector debt / CAR Net external financial sector debt/ Current Account Receipts Brazil Bahamas Panama 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 10. 2006 2007 2008 Inflation CPI growth Bolivia Costa Rica Dominican Republic 27% 25.0% Trinidad and Tobago Paraguay Jamaica 51% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 11. 2006 2007 2008