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Argentina Financial Program Year 2000 Ministry of Economy December, 1999 Index Introduction Fiscal Reform Financial Program 2000 Introduction Introduction Reduce Country Risk % GDP Country Risk 0 500 10% 1000 5% 1500 0% 2000 -5% 2500 -10% Spread o/TB (bp) GDP Growth (%) 15% 3000 -15% 3500 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 1999 4 Introduction Guarantee Fiscal Solvency Fiscal Deficit and National Public Debt (% of GDP) % % Projected 45 3 40 2 35 1 30 25 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 Fiscal Deficit Left Axis 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Public Debt Right Axis 5 Introduction Sound Conditions for Economic Growth Consolidation of Institutions Stable Macroeconomic Context Private Investment as Engine for Development Encourage Competition Adecuate Regulatory Framework Improvement in the International Evironment 6 Introduction Stimulate the Economy: Direct Savings to Investment $ billion Deposits Loans 90 80 70 60 50 40 1994 95 96 97 98 Mar Jun Sep Nov 1999 7 Fiscal Reform Fiscal Reform Fiscal Deficit $ million Fiscal Deficit before New Measures -9,100 Increase in Revenues due to New Measures +1,400 Reduction of Net Transfers to Provinces - Increase of Transfers to Provinces due to -500 -830 “Coparticipation” Funds - Reduction of Transfers to Provinces due to ATN and Others Reduction of National Government Expenditures Deficit in Previous Administration’s Budget +330 +1,000 7,200 9 Fiscal Reform Proposal for Expenditure Reduction $ million Highest Reduction in Nominal Primary Expenditure in the Argentina's: Includes: 1,419 Social Security Reform 400 Discretionary Expenditures 175 Temporary Payments by National Treasury 162 Presidency 60 Suppressed Remaining Agencies & Other Organizations 78 10 Fiscal Reform Federal Agreement Y2000: Fixed Transfer to Provinces of $1350 millions per month Y2001: Triennial Moving Average Discussion in Congress of the New “Coparticipation” Law Agreement to Establish “Fiscal Responsibility Laws” for the Provinces Agreement to Maintain or Reduce Expenditures in the Provinces Selective Support to Highly Indebted Provinces 11 Fiscal Reform Fiscal Deficit $ millions Deficit in Previous Administration Budget -7,200 Additional Expenditure Reduction +260 Federal Agreement: Net Expenditure Reduction +550 - Gross Expenditure Reduction +710 - Suppressed Budgetary Items -160 Fiscal Deficit with New Measures -6,390 Deficit under the Fiscal Responsibility Law -4,500 Additional Fiscal Effort in Y2000 -1,890 12 Fiscal Reform Tax Reform $ million Income Tax - Individuals Widening of Excise Taxes Reduction in Tax Evasion Special Income Tax Rates & Personal Assets New Fuel Taxes Other 900 720 450 430 210 210 Additional Tax Revenue 2920 Suppressed Tax on Cars (Education Fund) Personal Contributions Interest Payments Extended VAT Loss in Tax Revenues -440 -300 -200 - 80 -1020 Net Result of Tax Reform 1900 13 Financial Program 2000 Financial Program 2000 Targets: Stabilize Debt/GDP Ratio Financing Strategy: Predictability, Transparency & Global Coordination Encourage Participation of Retail and Institutional Investors in the Domestic Capital Markets Limit Short-Term Borrowing Smooth Debt Amortization Schedule to Avoid Heavy Concentration of Payment Obligations Open New Markets for Public and Private Borrowers 15 Financial Program 2000 The Argentine Case Amortization as % of GDP Public Debt as % of GDP 30% 90% 80% Long-Term Public Debt Short-Term Public Debt 70% 20% 60% 50% 40% 10% 30% 20% 10% d o la ya ic ue as ex l z a M ne M e V s a bi ne i m o ilip ol C Ph le hi C ng Hu ry a si us R Ph ilip in e Th s ai la n M d al as ya Th n la ai Hu ng ry Tu rk e Bu y lg ar i Po a lo ni a M ex C ico ol o So mb ia ut h Af ric a 0% 0% 16 Financial Program 2000 Financing Strategy Instruments: Multilateral Organizations Privatizations Liability Management Market Transactions 17 Financial Program 2000 Multilateral Organizations IMF: – Extend Current Program – Accumulate Rights to Have Access to Contingent Financing IDB - World Bank: – Complete Disbursements under Current SSAL – Negotiate New Medium-Term Loans (Project and Policy-Based Financing) 18 Financial Program 2000 Privatizations BHN (Mortgage National Bank) Caja de Ahorro y Seguros Energy and Gas Companies Railways National Development Bank Loans Real Estates Owned by Railway Company Total Proceeds: $700 million 19 Financial Program 2000 Liability Management Debt Exchange Transactions Aiming at: – Reduce Short-Term Liabilities – – Reduce Yield Curve Differentials Cancel Brady’s Collateral – Reduce Marginal Cost of Borrowing Global Impact on the 2000 Financial Program: $1,000 million 20 Financial Program 2000 Net Demand for Funds $ million Fiscal Deficit 4,500 Privatizations (700) Liability Management Transactions (1,000) Multilateral & Bilateral Organizations(Net) 1,900 Other 1,000 5,700 21 Financial Program 2000 Net Supply of Funds in the Domestic Market Assets under Pension Funds Management $ million $billion Gross Net Pension Funds 4,300 4,300 Banks 9,800 6,400 3,000 3,000 17,100 13,700 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Mutual Funds, 15 Insurance Co.& Retail 10 5 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Projected 2004 22 Financial Program 2000 Market Transtions Encourage Participation of Institutional and NonInstitutional Investors Strengthen the Market Makers’ Role Instruments: $ million Scheduled Bi-Weekly Letes Auctions (Net Increased in Outstanding Amount) 1,000 Monthly Auctions of Promissory Notes-Bonds 1,500 Scheduled Auctions for First Half Y2000 (Annual Amount) Program for Selling Bontes between 3 and 5 years 2,000 with Maturity 23 Financial Program 2000 Market Transactions $ million Global Bonds 5,000 – Maturity over 5 years – Distribution in Domestic & International Markets – Active Trading in Domestic & Int’l Markets Euros & Yens – 4,800 Widening Investors Base Budgetary Limit on the Issue of Consolidation Bonds Limited Reopening of Bonds in Line with Higher Predictability Policy 1,400 24 Financial Program 2000 Financing Sources $ million Total Borrowing Multilaterals 1999 19,700 2000 17,500 1,400 1,500 500 1,000 2,300 700 15,500 14,300 Letes (Net Increase) 1,000 1,000 Promissory Note-Bond 1,400 1,500 Bontes 1,600 2,000 USD Globals 4,600 5,000 Euros & Yens 6,900 4,800 Liability Managment Privatization Bonds 25 Financial Program 2000 Financing Sources $ million 1999 2000 Borrowing 19,700 17,500 Amortizations 11,400 12,000 Net Borrowing 8,300 5,500 15,500 14,300 Amortizations 8,600 8,600 Net borrowing 6,900 5,700 Total Market Transactions Borrowing 26 Financial Program 2000 Concluding Remarks Transparency Predictability Performance Control Regular and Updated Distribution of Information: Quarterly Investor’s Conferences Web-Sites: www.mecon.ar/financiamiento www.infoarg.org 27 To Receive Information by E-Mail Send Your Address to: [email protected] http://www.mecon.ar http://www.infoarg.org