Download D4.2b

International Seminar on
Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid
Estimates of Economic Trends
Ottawa, 27-29 May 2009
Geert Bruinooge
Deputy Director-General
Statistics Netherlands
SESSION 4;
Extrapolation, modelling,
econometric and sampling
techniques used in the
preparations of rapid estimates
The professionalism of statisticians
is judged by their capacity to
combine a high degree of reliability
with satisfactory rapidity
free quote from: “Understanding NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS”, OECD
Quote:
“I want to know today, what
happened yesterday”
Central banker, February 2009
Different approaches
• Rapid indicators of monthly GDP
• Economic models forecasting main
economic variables
• Surveys
• Composite indicators
• Separate indicators for parts of economy
Monthly estimates of GDP
• Use of well established statistical methods
• New rapid estimates for white spots
• International effort to provide common
methodology and framework
Economic models forecasting main
economic variables
• Forecasts may prove wrong
– Exogenous data may contain errors
– Model may be subject to error
– Model may fail due to structural break in
economic development
• Forecasts may jeopardize public trust in
NSI’s
• NSI’s shouldn’t forecast but stop at now
casts
Surveys
• Surveys are useful for information on the
present and near future state of the
economy
• Representative surveys with low sampling
variability are costly and lack timeliness
• Many NSI’s have to use data registers and
administrations (VAT, wage tax)
Composite indicators
• Composite indicators present already
available data in consistent and coherent
way
• Composite indicators consist of
coincident, leading and lagging indicators
• Careful selection of variables
Separate indicators
• Separate indicators linked to specific
characteristics of countries
• Examples:
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Freight (by container, by air, by road)
Mobile call minutes
Visitor arrivals
New cars registration
Floor area under construction
Production of cement
ATM cash withdrawals, electronic payments
• Careful selection of indicators based on sharp
criteria
Concluding remarks
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Different approaches
Promising results
Much work to be done
“Proof of the pudding is in the eating”
International comparability