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There is such a country! • 1950 1992 Over 5x increase in global output Nearly 12x increase in world trade • 1950 - Richest / Poorest 20%: 30x • 1989 - Richest / Poorest 20%: 60x • 1999 - Richest / Poorest 20%: 78x Khosla’s Egalitarian Beer Mug Richest fifth Each horizontal band represents an equal fifth of the world’s people Poorest fifth People Income Equity in the UNFCCC PREAMBLE: Emphasizes differentiated responsibility, prevention of harm, differing needs, vulnerabilities, capabilities and resources. [12 out of 23 paragraphs] OBJECTIVES: Calls for economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. PRINCIPLES: Each of 5 principles includes equity considerations: equity, special needs, precautionary measures, right to sustainable development, and developing country growth. Equity in the Kyoto Protocol Summary of shifting principles: • “Equity” does not appear • Prominence of financial and technological transfers lost • Focus on commitment period 2008-2012 • Focus on domestic action/options for reducing GHGs • Internationally, “Minimize adverse impact” • Sustainable development remains black box • Tax on CDM for vulnerable countries; Regressive? Relationship of Carbon Emissions to Income Carbon Emissions/Capita (tons) 14.00 Qatar 12.00 10.00 United Arab Emirates 8.00 Bahrain 6.00 Singapore United States Australia 4.00 Saudi Arabia Czech Republic Luxembourg Norway Canada Japan 2.00 Switzerland Hong Kong, China 0.00 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 GDP/Capita (PPP$) Source: World Bank (1998); Marland, et al. (1998). 25,000 30,000 35,000 450 ppm Carbon Trajectories 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Annex I Non-Annex I 18 60 18 80 19 00 19 20 19 40 19 60 19 80 20 00 20 20 20 40 20 60 20 80 21 00 Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr) Cumulative emissions : 650 GtC 1990 emission rate : 6 GtC/yr 2100 emission rate : 3 GtC/yr Year 18 60 18 80 19 00 19 20 19 40 19 60 19 80 20 00 20 20 20 40 20 60 20 80 21 00 Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr) 450 ppm Carbon Trajectories 14 12 10 Annex I Non-Annex I 8 6 4 2 0 Year Envisioning Sustainable Development In the end, we are the stories that we tell