Download Diapositiva 1

LATIN AMERICA TODAY
Luis Angel Madrid
April 2010
¿CONVERGENCES?
“These Latin
American
countries are all
very different
from each
other.”
In a view
AFTER 200 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE
A BIT OF HISTORY
The birth of Latin
America
Independency
by accident:
The Peninsula
War of 1808
First phase: 1820-1870
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Insurmountable transportation costs
Flight of the entrepreneur class & capital
Economic devastation
Politico-institutional disorder
Division among criollo elites
Fiscal bankruptcy
Deep crisis of legitimacy
1870-1980
• Imitation of European and American political
models
• Economic laissez-faire
• Insertion in the global economy as raw
material & commodities providers
• Crisis of the Thirties
• Inward-looking economic models
During the last 20 years …
• Toward democratic governance,
• Market-oriented economies (neoliberal
reforms)
• Regional economic integration
• Policies of macroeconomic and fiscal balance
Lowenthal, 2009
BUT IN A CLOSER LOOK
The five dimensions
• Demographic and economic interdependence with the
US (the intermestic issue): Mexico, Central America &
Caribbean.
• Economic liberalization: Chile, Brasil, Colombia,
Mexico, Perú, Panamá.
• Democratic governance: Chile, Uruguay, Costa Rica.
• Effectiveness of civic and political institutions: the
same plus Argentina.
• Social inclusion: indigenous population in Bolivia,
Ecuador, Peru, Guatemala & Mexico + Afro-Latin
Americans
MAJOR ISSUES & QUESTIONS
WHY?
THE REAPPEARANCE OF THE LEFT
(EARLY 21ST CENTURY)
The forebears
•
•
•
•
•
Arbenz in Guatemala (1954)
Castro in Cuba (1959)
Allende in Chile (1970)
Sandinistas in Nicaragua (1979)
Alan García in Perú (1985)
After neoliberalism
• Paucity of economic growth
• Major social inclusion deficits
• Unbalanced income distribution
Patterns: Venezuela
• Puntofijismo: 1958-1998
• Rise and fall of the “rentist petrolero” state
• Profligacy, corruption, capture of the state and
political projection (The Great Venezuela)
• Voto castigo: against traditional political
parties, institutions & a turn to messianic
promises
Then
Socialism for the 21st Century
• Using democracy to reach power, then
dedicating himself to dismantle public
institutions
• Authoritarian populism: disdain for democracy
as being unable to solve people’s problems.
• Anti-American rhetoric: the root of all evils
(besides local and regional bourgeoisie).
Now
• Growing dependence on oil (1998, 69%
exports oil; 2010, 94%)
• 1997: 3.7 millions oil barrels/day; in 2010: 2.2
millions barrel/day (decline of 7.2% in 2009)
• 2009: full GDP shrinkage -3.3% (-5.6% in
2010?)
• High inflation and unemployment (electricity
shortages), PSUV´s split, mounting
lawlessness and violence.
Patterns: Brazil
• Desarrollista policy (state-society): 1930-1985
• 1979: former metal worker “Lula” founded the
PPT (Partido de los Trabajadores)
• 1990: control of town hall in Porto Alegre
(participative budget)
• 2002: Lula defeats Jose Serra (1998´s
economic crisis & electricity rationing )
• Brazil bid for great power status
Patterns: Argentina
• From developed country position to political &
economic implosion (December 2001)
• Rise of the Peronist (Justicialista) Kirchners
(Nestor in 2003 & Cristina in 2007)
• Economic recovery with Nestor (debt default)
• Troubles with Cristina (skimming Central
Bank´s dollar reserves & agricultural business
strike over farming taxes )
CRISIS & NEW PATHS IN REGIONAL
INTEGRATION
•
•
•
•
•
What ever happened to the OAS?
The failed FTAA (ALCA): 1994-2003
Paralysis in Mercosur
Crisis in CAN
Comunidad Suramericana de Naciones
morphed into UNASUR
• ALBA (and it mutations)
ELECTIONS IN 2010 AND BEYOND
•
•
•
•
Colombia (May 2010): Santos vs. Mockus vs Sanin
Venezuela (September 2010): National Assembly
Brazil (October 2010): Serra vs. Rouseff
Argentina (October 2011): Macri (Union Pro) vs.
Kirchner (Justicialismo) vs Cobos (UCR)
• Peru (April 2011): Keiko Fujimori; Jaime Bayly
• Mexico (2012): Peña (PRI), Ebrard (PRD); Creel
(PAN)
MANY THANKS