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Chapter 17 Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Prepared by: Fernando & Yvonn Quijano © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. NewPage Paper versus China Learning Objectives 17.1 Explain how the balance of payments is calculated. 17.2 Explain how exchange rates are determined and how changes in exchange rates affect the prices of imports and exports. 17.3 Explain the saving and investment equation. 17.4 Explain the effect of a government budget deficit on investment in an open economy. Under existing international trade agreements, governments are not allowed to subsidize firms that export to other countries… 17.5 Discuss the difference between the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in an open economy and in a closed economy. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 2 of 31 Learning Objective 17.1 Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy The Balance of Payments: Linking the United States to the International Economy Open economy An economy that has interactions in trade or finance with other countries. Closed economy An economy that has no interactions in trade or finance with other countries. Balance of payments The record of a country’s trade with other countries in goods, services, and assets. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 3 of 32 Learning Objective 17.1 The Balance of Payments: Linking the United States to the International Economy Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy The Current Account Current account The part of the balance of payments that records a country’s net exports, net investment income, and net transfers. The Balance of Trade Balance of trade The difference between the value of the goods a country exports and the value of the goods a country imports. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 4 of 32 Learning Objective 17.1 The Balance of Payments: Linking the United States to the International Economy The Current Account Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy FIGURE 17.1 Trade Flows for the United States and Japan, 2006 © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 5 of 32 Learning Objective 17.1 The Balance of Payments: Linking the United States to the International Economy Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy The Current Account Net Exports Equals the Sum of the Balance of Trade and the Balance of Services Table 17-1 CURRENT ACCOUNT The Balance of Payments of the United States, 2006 (billions of dollars) Exports of goods $1,023 Imports of goods −1,861 −838 Balance of trade Exports of services 423 Imports of services −343 Balance of services 80 Income received on investments 650 Income payments on investments −614 Net income on investments −36 Net transfers −90 Balance on current account −812 © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 6 of 32 Learning Objective 17.1 The Balance of Payments: Linking the United States to the International Economy Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy The Current Account Net Exports Equals the Sum of the Balance of Trade and the Balance of Services Table 17-1 The Balance of Payments of the United States, 2006 (billions of dollars) (continued) FINANCIAL ACCOUNT Increase in foreign holdings of assets in the United States Increase in U.S. holdings of assets in foreign countries 1,860 −1,055 Balance on Financial Account 805 BALANCE ON CAPITAL ACCOUNT -4 Statistical discrepancy 11 Balance of payments 0 © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 7 of 32 Learning Objective 17.1 The Balance of Payments: Linking the United States to the International Economy Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy The Financial Account Financial account The part of the balance of payments that records purchases of assets a country has made abroad and foreign purchases of assets in the country. Net foreign investment The difference between capital outflows from a country and capital inflows, also equal to net foreign direct investment plus net foreign portfolio investment. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 8 of 32 Learning Objective 17.1 The Balance of Payments: Linking the United States to the International Economy Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy The Capital Account Capital account The part of the balance of payments that records relatively minor transactions, such as migrants’ transfers, and sales and purchases of nonproduced, nonfinancial assets. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 9 of 32 Learning Objective 17.1 The Balance of Payments: Linking the United States to the International Economy Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Why Is the Balance of Payments Always Zero? The sum of the current account balance, the financial account balance, and the capital account balance equals the balance of payments. To make the balance on the current account equal the balance on the financial account, the balance of payments includes an entry called the statistical discrepancy. Don’t Let This Happen to YOU! Don’t Confuse the Balance of Trade, the Current Account Balance, and the Balance of Payments © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 10 of 32 Learning Objective 17.1 Solved Problem 17-1 Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Understanding the Arithmetic of Open Economies Test your understanding of the relationship between the current account and the financial account by evaluating the following assertion by a political commentator: “The industrial countries are committing economic suicide. Every year, they invest more and more in developing countries. Every year, more U.S., Japanese, and European manufacturing firms move their factories to developing countries. With extensive new factories and low wages, developing countries now export far more to the industrial countries than they import.” © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 11 of 32 Learning Objective 17.2 Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy The Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rates Nominal exchange rate The value of one country’s currency in terms of another country’s currency. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 12 of 32 Learning Objective 17.2 Making the Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Connection Exchange Rates in the Financial Pages EXCHANGE RATE BETWEEN THE DOLLAR AND THE INDICATED CURRENCY UNITS OF FOREIGN CURRENCY PER U.S. DOLLAR U.S. DOLLAR PER UNIT OF FOREIGN CURRENCY 1.067 0.937 Japanese yen 122.650 0.008 Mexican peso 10.919 0.092 British pound 0.507 1.972 Euro 0.752 1.330 CURRENCY Canadian dollar The financial pages of most newspapers provide information on exchange rates. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 13 of 32 Learning Objective 17.2 Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy The Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rates There are three sources of foreign currency demand for the U.S. dollar: 1 Foreign firms and households who want to buy goods and services produced in the United States. 2 Foreign firms and households who want to invest in the United States either through foreign direct investment—buying or building factories or other facilities in the United States—or through foreign portfolio investment—buying stocks and bonds issued in the United States. 3 Currency traders who believe that the value of the dollar in the future will be greater than its value today. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 14 of 32 Learning Objective 17.2 The Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rates Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Equilibrium in the Market for Foreign Exchange FIGURE 17.2 Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 15 of 32 Learning Objective 17.2 The Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rates Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Equilibrium in the Market for Foreign Exchange Currency appreciation An increase in the market value of one currency relative to another currency. Currency depreciation A decrease in the market value of one currency relative to another currency. Don’t Let This Happen to YOU! Remember That Modern Currencies Are Fiat Money © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 16 of 32 Learning Objective 17.2 The Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rates Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy How Do Shifts in Demand and Supply Affect the Exchange Rate? Three main factors cause the demand and supply curves in the foreign exchange market to shift: 1 Changes in the demand for U.S.-produced goods and services and changes in the demand for foreign-produced goods and services 2 Changes in the desire to invest in the United States and changes in the desire to invest in foreign countries 3 Changes in the expectations of currency traders about the likely future value of the dollar and the likely future value of foreign currencies © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 17 of 32 Learning Objective 17.2 The Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rates Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy How Do Shifts in Demand and Supply Affect the Exchange Rate? Shifts in the Demand for Foreign Exchange Speculators Currency traders who buy and sell foreign exchange in an attempt to profit from changes in exchange rates. Shifts in the Supply of Foreign Exchange The factors that affect the supply curve for dollars are similar to those that affect the demand curve for dollars. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 18 of 32 Learning Objective 17.2 The Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rates Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy How Do Shifts in Demand and Supply Affect the Exchange Rate? Adjustment to a New Equilibrium FIGURE 17.3 Shifts in the Demand and Supply Curve Resulting in a Higher Exchange Rate © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 19 of 32 Learning Objective 17.2 The Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rates Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Some Exchange Rates Are Not Determined by the Market Some currencies have fixed exchange rates that do not change over long periods. How Movements in the Exchange Rate Affect Exports and Imports If the economy is currently below potential GDP, then, holding all other factors constant, a depreciation in the domestic currency should increase net exports, aggregate demand, and real GDP. An appreciation in the domestic currency should have the opposite effect: Exports should fall, and imports should rise, which will reduce net exports, aggregate demand, and real GDP. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 20 of 32 Learning Objective 17.2 Solved Problem 17-2 Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy The Effect of Changing Exchange Rates on the Prices of Imports and Exports In March 2001, the average price of goods imported into the United States from Canada fell 3.3 percent. This decline was the largest since the federal government began gathering such statistics in 1992. Is it likely that the value of the U.S. dollar appreciated or depreciated versus the Canadian dollar during this period? Is it likely that the average price in Canadian dollars of goods exported from the United States to Canada during March 2001 rose or fell? © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 21 of 32 Learning Objective 17.2 The Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rates Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy The Real Exchange Rate Real exchange rate The price of domestic goods in terms of foreign goods. Domestic price level Real exchange rate = Nominal exchange rate × Foreign price level © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 22 of 32 Learning Objective 17.3 The International Sector and National Saving and Investment FIGURE 17.4 Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy U.S. Imports and Exports, 1970–2006 © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 23 of 32 Learning Objective 17.3 The International Sector and National Saving and Investment Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Net Exports Equal Net Foreign Investment Current Account Balance + Financial Account Balance = 0 or: Current Account Balance = -Financial Account Balance or: Net Exports = Net Foreign Investment © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 24 of 32 Learning Objective 17.3 The International Sector and National Saving and Investment Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Domestic Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign Investment National Saving = Private Saving + Public Saving S = Sprivate + Spublic Private Saving = National Income – Consumption - Taxes Sprivate = Y – C – T Government Saving = Taxes – Government Spending Spublic = T – G © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 25 of 32 Learning Objective 17.3 The International Sector and National Saving and Investment Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Domestic Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign Investment Remember the basic macroeconomic equation for GDP or national income: Y = C + I + G + NX Saving and investment equation An equation that shows that national saving is equal to domestic investment plus net foreign investment. National Saving = Domestic Investment + Net Foreign Investment S = I + NFI © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 26 of 32 Learning Objective 17.3 Solved Problem 17-3 Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Arriving at the Saving and Investment Equation S = Sprivate + Spublic = (Y − C − T) + (T − G) = Y − C − G S = (C + I + G + NX) − C − G S = I + NX S = I + NFI © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 27 of 32 Learning Objective 17.4 The Effect of a Government Budget Deficit on Investment FIGURE 17.5 Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy The Twin Deficits, 1978–2006 © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 28 of 32 Learning Objective 17.4 Making the Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Connection Why Is the United States Called the “World’s Largest Debtor”? Large current account deficits have resulted in foreign investors purchasing large amounts of U.S. assets. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 29 of 32 Learning Objective 17.5 Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy in an Open Economy Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Monetary Policy in an Open Economy When the Federal Reserve engages in an expansionary monetary policy, it buys Treasury securities to lower interest rates and stimulate aggregate demand. Fiscal Policy in an Open Economy To engage in an expansionary fiscal policy, the federal government increases its purchases or cuts taxes. Increases in government purchases directly increase aggregate demand. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 30 of 32 An Inside LOOK Can the U.S. Current Account Deficit Be Sustained? Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Sustaining the Unsustainable U.S. trade-weighted exchange index: Major currencies. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 31 of 32 Chapter 17: Macroeconomics in an Open Economy Key Terms Balance of payments Net foreign investment Balance of trade Nominal exchange rate Capital account Open economy Closed economy Real exchange rate Currency appreciation Saving and investment equation Currency depreciation Speculators Current account Financial account © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 32 of 32