Download P5.2

Towards A Flash GDP?
Adriaan M. Bloem
15 December 2009
What Is A Flash GDP?
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An early estimate of a certain
reference period
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For instance, a QNA GDP estimate faster
than the regular estimate
A short-term GDP estimate

For instance, a monthly GDP estimate
A Flash GDP: What’s The Attraction?
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Financial and economic policy
increasingly needs fast info
GDP is a well-known indicator
GDP covers the whole of the economy
Why Don’t More Countries Have
A Flash GDP?
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Lack of sufficient source data
High reliance on modeling or “nowcasting”
Low information content—little value added
Not able to identify turning points
Lack of accuracy (compared with later
result)
What More Should I Say?
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One aggregate GDP number does not
tell us much about the economy
“Early” estimates not that early
Claim on scarce resources
What Could We Do?
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Produce a set of really fast monthly
indicators
Both on the supply and use side
Consistent with the national accounts
Providing a reasonably detailed picture
of the economy
What Kind Of Indicators? Supply Side
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Output of manufacturing undustries
Trade
Transport
Financial services (FISIM)
Mining and quarying
Tourism-related industries
What Kind Of Indicators? Use Side
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Household consumption
Imports and exports
Fixed capital formation
Changes in inventories
Statistical Requirements
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Based on national accounts (quarterly
or annual)
Using actual data or direct indicators
Both seasonally adjusted and raw data
Coordinated production and release
Advantages
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Real data
Fast
Enabling identifyig turning points
Enabling analysing business cycle
Much more analytical value through relevant
detail
Accuracy much less of a problem
Desimination
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Monthly press release
Bringing all relevant monthly data
together
Focussing on trends
GDP And Beyond

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Eventually, such a set might allow producing
an accurate monthly flash GDP
More importantly, it would provide a context
for other important indicators
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Labor force
Household income and saving
Financial indicators (e.g., sectoral debt)
Thanks For Your Attention!