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Overview of Programme of the Working Group on Flash Estimates of GDP (2) Roberto Barcellan European Commission - Eurostat A system of rapid estimates: different products for different purposes Which products are rapid estimates and what are the differences among them? – – – – Forecasts Nowcasts Flash estimates Advanced-preliminary estimates What are these products fit for? For which products national statistical institutes have to be responsible? Minimum quality requirements Which should be the minimum quality requirements for rapid estimates: Timeliness : pre-defined or ad hoc? Reliability – accuracy: how to measure it? Coverage: minimum thresholds? What are the trade-offs between quality requirements? Technical issues use of hard and soft data – Should a minimum amount of hard data be required? – Can soft data (surveys) be used? Statistical and econometric techniques – Econometrics? – Adherence to the production process of regular estimates? revision policy and rapid estimates – Rapid estimates only for the last period – Revisions of previous estimates? Creating a “culture” of rapid estimates Communication Transparency Create expectations: pre-fixed release windows? Define which estimate for which purpose Dashboard Alternative to rapid estimates Are there alternative to rapid estimates? Monthly estimates of GDP instead of Quarterly rapid estimates of GDP New estimates based on, for example, internet (the Google experience) Alternative: no rapid estimates Towards an international approach to rapid estimates Is there a need to coordinate the approach to rapid estimates at international level? High level group on rapid estimates – What should be their mandate? Sharing best practices – How to organise it? Establish legal frameworks? International roadmap for implementation? Coordination of communication aspects Recommendations for UNSC Glossary Collect and consolidate the information on the availability of rapid estimates Handbook on rapid estimates Expert group on rapid estimates Implementation plans Strengthen national capacity Promote a “rapid estimates culture” Way forward UNSD Lauch the collection of information on availability and compilation processes Set up the expert group Glossary (end 2011) – broad endorsement Handbook (end 2012) – broad endorsement Long term development agenda Thank you for your attention!