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A CLIMATE POLICY CHALLENGE ACTING BEYOND THE ELECTION – MEDIA CYCLE John Byrne April 26, 2010 Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Modernized Atmosphere CO2 CH4 N2O CFC-11 HCFC-22 CF4 Pre-industrial Concentration ~280 ppmv ~700 ppbv ~275 ppbv zero zero zero Concentration in 2009 390 ppmv 1790 ppbv 260 pptv 110 pptv 70 pptv 0 pptv/yr 1.2 pptv/yr 0 %/yr 5 pptv/yr 5 %/yr 50 12 50,000 340 ppbv Rate of 1.5 ppmv/yr 10 ppbv/yr 0.8 ppbv/yr Concentration 0.6 %/yr 0.25 %/yr 0.4 %/yr Change* Atmospheric 12 120 lifetime (years) 50 - 200 2 %/yr * The growth rates of CO2, CH4, and N2O are averaged over 25 years beginning in 1984; halocarbon growth rates are based on recent years. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: U.S. Retail Prices (Nominal) U.S. Energy Price Increases 300% 275% NG 250% Gasoline Heating Oil 225% Electricity 200% 175% 150% 125% Yr 2000 Price 75% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: U.S. EIA database and Annual Energy Outlook (2009) Center for Energy and Environmental Policy 2020 Energy Expenditures as % of US GDP 10.0% 9.8% of GDP in 2008 Highest in 25 yrs 9.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Source: Data used to prepare EIA Annual Energy Outlook, March 2009 Center for Energy and Environmental Policy 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 4.0% 1995 Percent 8.0% MORE US RENEWABLES…alone…WILL NOT REALIZE 60% LESS 5,201 TWh 3,789 TWh 24% of Supply 2.1% 7.3% 19.9% 2.9% 53% of Supply 4.8% Coal NG 44.6% 5.6% 15.9% Oil Nuclear 30.6% 14.8% 9.6% 20.1% 51.9% 7,087 TWh 42.3% 4.1% 1.7% 21.2% 0.5% Large Hydro 126% 123% Renewables Needed E-E & Conservation 128% 123% 104% 50% IPCC Estimate of Needed Cut 2050 2025 2000 Electricity All Energy CO2 Emissions as a % of US 1990 Levels Assumptions: 1) US renewables grow at 2X the experience rate of Germany (currently the fastest in the world); 2) phaseout all coal power plants by 2050; 3) US electricity demand grows at 2% per yr (EIA); 4) energy efficiency improvement of 0.9%/yr (EIA). US ENERGY OBESITY United States California Delaware Per capita residential electricity use 1960-2007 Delawareans use 45% more electricity than Californians EIA, 2009 State Energy Data System (SEDS); U.S. Census Bureau, 2008, 2000, 1990 IPCC Assessment of Principal Mitigation Options 25 GT CO2-e 15 23.7 5 1990 -5 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -25 2030 7.8 New Emissions Above 1990 -15 2025 Needed Emission Reductions Non-Electric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements Electric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements Sustainable Land Use & Transport Planning 12.0 4.2 (51%) 7.2 (30%) 2.5 (10%) 2.0 ( 9%) Renewable Energy Other* * Other includes 1.1 Gt CO2-e reduced through several options including: carbon capture & storage; waste & wastewater management; new nuclear power plant designs. Source: IPCC 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, WG III Report, Mitigation of Climate Change. Supporting Sources: Olivier et al 2005 & 2006; WBCSD 2004. Delaware’s SEU Cited as a National Model State and Local Governments Innovate to Cut Energy Waste February 11, 2010 An alternative plan Delaware's Sustainable Energy Utility fits into a larger national movement away from the traditional way of doing programs with utilities in charge. The alternative plan…is to reshape the business: Make it possible…to profit from efficiency, not just from selling electrons… The model also works for renewable energy. Shifting from the Economics of Obesity to Sustainability February 22, 2010 Clean energy, green jobs The SEU is uniquely suited to create sustainable jobs. Investments in onsite renewables can produce 2-5 times as many new, permanent jobs as those in conventional energy. Investments in energy efficiency and conservation could generate 3-4 times as many new jobs. Testimony of John D. Podesta before Vice President Biden's Middle Class Task Force February 27, 2009 What can we do today In Delaware, a “Sustainable Energy Utility” can meet energy needs, not by building new power plants but by weatherizing homes [and installing solar panels]…creating a market…for the verifiable energy savings they produce. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy JOBS: The Clean Technology Advantage ^ Permanent Jobs Created per Million US$ Invested COAL PLANTS 4 ENERGY EFFICIENCY & CONSERVATION 12-15 Smart/Green Buildings 14.7 Air Insulation 12.0 RENEWABLE ENERGY 10-19 Solar Thermal 19.0 Solar Electric (PV) 15.7 Wind 11.9 Geothermal 10.5 INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY 18-26 High-Speed Broadband 26.4 Smart Grid 21.7 Intelligent Transport 17.7 Sources: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner, The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market. ACEEE. 2008. American Solar Energy Society (ASES). Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Drivers for the 21st Century. 2007.Singh & Fehrs, The Work that Goes into Renewable Energy. REPP. 2001. London School of Economics (LSE) and the information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF). The UK’s Digital Road to Recovery. 2009. ICT job creation does not include ‘network effects.’ SEU IMPACTS • 8 YRS. MOS. >~ $85 $27 mmm 10 $130 5 ARRA FUNDS – Rebates & Loans • GREEN ENERGY SAVNGS BOND • RGGI CARBON AUCTION PROCEEDS • EERS – 15% Cut in Electric Sales by 2015 • RPS – 20% of Electric Sales from REs by 2019 TOP DOWN TARGETS A FOREWORD FOR ACTION BOTTOM UP SOUSTAINABILITY