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A CLIMATE POLICY CHALLENGE
ACTING BEYOND THE ELECTION – MEDIA CYCLE
John Byrne
April 26, 2010
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
Modernized Atmosphere
CO2
CH4
N2O
CFC-11
HCFC-22
CF4
Pre-industrial
Concentration
~280 ppmv ~700 ppbv ~275 ppbv
zero
zero
zero
Concentration
in 2009
390 ppmv
1790 ppbv
260 pptv
110 pptv
70 pptv
0 pptv/yr
1.2 pptv/yr
0 %/yr
5 pptv/yr
5 %/yr
50
12
50,000
340 ppbv
Rate of
1.5 ppmv/yr 10 ppbv/yr 0.8 ppbv/yr
Concentration
0.6 %/yr
0.25 %/yr
0.4 %/yr
Change*
Atmospheric
12
120
lifetime (years) 50 - 200
2 %/yr
* The growth rates of CO2, CH4, and N2O are averaged over 25 years beginning in 1984;
halocarbon growth rates are based on recent years.
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
Climbing Conventional Energy Prices:
U.S. Retail Prices (Nominal)
U.S. Energy Price Increases
300%
275%
NG
250%
Gasoline
Heating Oil
225%
Electricity
200%
175%
150%
125%
Yr 2000
Price
75%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Source: U.S. EIA database and Annual Energy Outlook (2009)
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
2020
Energy Expenditures as % of US GDP
10.0%
9.8% of GDP in 2008
Highest in 25 yrs
9.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
Source: Data used to prepare EIA Annual Energy Outlook, March 2009
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
4.0%
1995
Percent
8.0%
MORE US RENEWABLES…alone…WILL NOT REALIZE 60% LESS
5,201 TWh
3,789 TWh
24%
of Supply
2.1%
7.3%
19.9%
2.9%
53%
of Supply
4.8%
Coal
NG
44.6%
5.6%
15.9%
Oil
Nuclear
30.6%
14.8% 9.6%
20.1%
51.9%
7,087 TWh
42.3%
4.1%
1.7%
21.2%
0.5%
Large Hydro
126% 123%
Renewables
Needed E-E & Conservation
128%
123%
104%
50%
IPCC Estimate of Needed Cut
2050
2025
2000
Electricity
All Energy
CO2 Emissions as a % of US 1990 Levels
Assumptions: 1) US renewables grow at 2X the experience rate of Germany (currently the
fastest in the world); 2) phaseout all coal power plants by 2050; 3) US electricity demand
grows at 2% per yr (EIA); 4) energy efficiency improvement of 0.9%/yr (EIA).
US ENERGY OBESITY
United States
California
Delaware
Per capita residential electricity use 1960-2007
Delawareans
use 45% more
electricity than
Californians
EIA, 2009 State Energy Data System (SEDS); U.S. Census Bureau, 2008, 2000, 1990
IPCC Assessment of Principal Mitigation Options
25
GT CO2-e
15
23.7
5
1990
-5
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
-25
2030
7.8
New Emissions Above 1990
-15
2025
Needed Emission Reductions
Non-Electric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements
Electric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements
Sustainable Land Use & Transport Planning
12.0
4.2 (51%)
7.2 (30%)
2.5 (10%)
2.0 ( 9%)
Renewable Energy
Other*
* Other includes 1.1 Gt CO2-e reduced through several options including:
carbon capture & storage; waste & wastewater management; new nuclear
power plant designs.
Source: IPCC 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, WG III Report, Mitigation
of Climate Change.
Supporting Sources: Olivier et al 2005 & 2006; WBCSD 2004.
Delaware’s SEU Cited as a National Model
State and Local Governments Innovate to Cut Energy Waste
February 11, 2010
An alternative plan
Delaware's Sustainable Energy Utility fits into a larger national movement away from the
traditional way of doing programs with utilities in charge. The alternative plan…is to reshape
the business: Make it possible…to profit from efficiency, not just from selling electrons… The
model also works for renewable energy.
Shifting from the Economics of Obesity to Sustainability
February 22, 2010
Clean energy, green jobs
The SEU is uniquely suited to create sustainable jobs. Investments in onsite renewables can
produce 2-5 times as many new, permanent jobs as those in conventional energy. Investments in energy efficiency and conservation could generate 3-4 times as many new jobs.
Testimony of John D. Podesta before Vice President Biden's
Middle Class Task Force
February 27, 2009
What can we do today
In Delaware, a “Sustainable Energy Utility” can meet energy needs, not by building new power
plants but by weatherizing homes [and installing solar panels]…creating a market…for the
verifiable energy savings they produce.
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
JOBS: The Clean Technology Advantage
^
Permanent Jobs Created per Million US$ Invested
COAL PLANTS
4
ENERGY EFFICIENCY & CONSERVATION
12-15
Smart/Green Buildings
14.7
Air Insulation
12.0
RENEWABLE ENERGY
10-19
Solar Thermal
19.0
Solar Electric (PV)
15.7
Wind
11.9
Geothermal
10.5
INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY
18-26
High-Speed Broadband
26.4
Smart Grid
21.7
Intelligent Transport
17.7
Sources: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner, The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market. ACEEE. 2008. American Solar Energy Society (ASES).
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Drivers for the 21st Century. 2007.Singh & Fehrs, The Work that Goes into Renewable
Energy. REPP. 2001. London School of Economics (LSE) and the information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF). The UK’s Digital
Road to Recovery. 2009. ICT job creation does not include ‘network effects.’
SEU IMPACTS
•
8 YRS.
MOS. >~ $85
$27 mmm
10
$130
5
ARRA FUNDS – Rebates & Loans
•
GREEN ENERGY SAVNGS BOND
• RGGI CARBON AUCTION PROCEEDS
•
EERS – 15% Cut in Electric Sales by 2015
•
RPS – 20% of Electric Sales from REs by 2019
TOP DOWN
TARGETS
A FOREWORD FOR ACTION
BOTTOM UP
SOUSTAINABILITY