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Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3rd 2012 1 Agenda • Introduction and objectives • Target setting for the Overall Strategic Goals • Target setting for Integrated Growth • Target setting for Smart Growth • Target setting for Sustainable Growth • Target setting for Inclusive Growth • Target setting for Governance for Growth 2 Transforming the SEE 2020 Vision i. ii. iii. iv. v. SEE 2020 Vision adopted at the SEE Ministerial Conference: Integrated growth to deepen regional trade and investment linkages; Smart growth – innovation and competition based on value-added rather than labour costs Sustainable growth – private sector competitiveness, entrepreneurship, greener and energy-efficient development; Inclusive growth – skills development, employment creation & labour market participation by all Governance for growth – improve capacity of public administrations to strengthen the rule of law and reduce corruption A set of headline targets to be adopted at the next Ministerial 3 The proposed process Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Nov 2012 SEE Min Vision adopted First draft targets SEE IC Targets discussed Second draft targets 1st Task Force Meeting Written procedure & third draft 2nd Task Force Meeting SEE IC Final draft targets SEE Min Targets adopted 4 An initial set of target indicators • Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b) Growth of total trade of goods and services c) Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b) Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth a) Growth of enterprise creation b) Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth a) Growth of overall employment rate b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth a) Increase government effectiveness a) Growth of GDP per person employed 5 An initial set of target indicators • Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b) Growth of total trade of goods and services c) Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b) Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth a) Growth of enterprise creation b) Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth a) Growth of overall employment rate b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth a) Increase government effectiveness a) Growth of GDP per person employed 6 Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU GDP per capita PPP (% of EU GDP per capita) 80% 70% 60% 67.2% 50% 45.77% 40% 30% 38.35% 20% 10% 0% SEE average EU8 Source: World Bank data used for 2000-2009.Data submitted by SEE economies for 2010 only. Eurostat data used for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia due to discrepancy between national and Eurostat sources. Averages weighted by population. Data labels show the average for 2010 No data submitted for Kosovo* and weights were adjusted accordingly. * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence. 7 Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU 1. Increase of GDP per Capita Relative to the EU expressed as a percentage of EU GDP per capita 2010 2020 Multiplier Notes ALB 28.00 35.00 1.3 BiH 29.00 35-40 1.3 CRO 59.00 70.00 1.2 MKD 36.48 40-45 1.2 MNE 41.00 48-49 1.2 SER 34.00 41.00 1.2 KOS SEE average 37.76 45.77 1.2 Weighted average based on economies' share in the total population of the region. No data was provided for Kosovo*. Weights are adjusted to reflect missing data. 8 Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services 1,600,000 16,000,000 1,400,000 14,000,000 1,200,000 12,000,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 800,000 8,000,000 600,000 6,000,000 279,086 400,000 200,000 0 2010: 118,489 SEE Trade for the EU27 trade for SEE and the EU8 Trade in goods and services (in Mill. US$) EU8 EU27 4,000,000 2,000,000 - Source: SEE economies provided data for 2010 baseline. World Bank data used for 20002009. Data not provided by Kosovo*. Montenegro only provided baseline 2010. No data for Serbia was available for 2000 to 2006 so the economy is not included in the sum for SEE for these years. 9 Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services 2. Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services expressed in millions of USD ALB 2010 10,188 2020 Multiplier Notes 22,000 2.2 BiH 14,024 31,978 2.3 CRO KOS MKD MNE SER 46,909 120,000 2.6 10,312 4,080 32,976 20,000 1.9 78,000 2.4 SEE 118,489 279,086 2.4 Baseline figure shows high discrepancy with int'l sources The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard. 10 Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit External balance on goods and services (% of GDP) 5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0% -5% -10% -5.0% -15% -11.8% -13.0% -20% -25% SEE EU27 EU8 Source: World Bank data for 2000-2009. SEE economies for 2010 baseline. Averages weighted by GDP PPP based on Eurostat 2010 data Kosovo* did not submit data for 2010 and data only available from 2000 to 2005 so the economy is not included in the average. Weights were adjusted accordingly. 11 Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit 3. Reduction of Trade Deficit / Improvement of Trade Balance expressed as percent of GDP ALB BiH CRO KOS MKD MNE SER SEE 2010 2020 -21.0 -20.8 0.0 -12.0 -27.0 0.0 9.0 -6.2 0.0 -19.0 -28.4 -17.0 -17.0 -20.0 -14.8 2.0 8.4 2.2 -13.0 -11.8 Difference Notes Deficit forecast for 2015 Weighted average based on economies' share in the total GDP of the region. No data provided for Kosovo*. Weights are adjusted to reflect 6 economies and based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard. 12 An initial set of target indicators • Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b) Growth of total trade of goods and services c) Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b) Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth a) Growth of enterprise creation b) Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth a) Growth of overall employment rate b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth a) Increase government effectiveness a) Growth of GDP per person employed 13 Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services) Value of trade in goods in the region (in MILL. EUR) 4,036,344 10,000,000 3,818,456 1,000,000 42,983 98,358 100,000 10,000 9,982 5,428 1,000 12,507 for Baseline 2010 100 10 1 2000 2005 2010 SEE EU27 2015 2020 EU8 Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE economies for 2010 baseline. Years: 2004 and 2009 For 2004, the exchange rate used was 1.324$=1€ No data submitted for Kosovo* so the economy is not included in the SEE sum. 14 Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services) 4. Growth of Intra-regional Trade in Goods expressed in million EUR 2010 2020 ALB BiH 436.0 3,185.3 1,526 3.5 CRO 3,645.0 12,000 3.3 KOS MKD MNE SER 1,238.0 800.5 3,202 3,500 2.8 12,003 3.7 SEE 12,507 42,983 Multiplier Notes 3.4 According to the target and projections of OECD for SEE The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional SEE baseline number for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard. 15 Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows FDI (net inflows, current US$, in millions) 1,500,000 125,000 1,250,000 100,000 1,000,000 75,000 713,264 750,000 50,000 25,000 0 500,000 426,077 20,468 9,992 3,948 1,666 250,000 0 -22,884 -25,000 SEE Total EU8 Total -250,000 EU27 Source: SEE economies for 2010 baseline. World Bank data for 2000-2009. Kosovo* did not submit data. No data for Kosovo* available for 2000 to 2003 so the economy is not included in the SEE sum for these years. No data for Montenegro was available for 2000 to 2006 so the 16 economy is not included in the SEE sum. FDI for EU27 FDI for SEE and EU8 150,000 Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows 5. Growth of Overall FDI Inflows in current USD million ALB BiH CRO KOS MKD MNE SER SEE 2010 2020 1,049 290 544 2,966 763 1,088 2.8 2.6 2.0 210 717 1,138 780 3.7 2,958 2.6 3,948 9,992 Multiplier Notes 2.5 The target sum was calculated by multiplying the regional SEE baseline number for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard. 17 An initial set of target indicators • Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b) Growth of total trade of goods and services c) Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b) Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth a) Growth of enterprise creation b) Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth a) Growth of overall employment rate b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth a) Increase government effectiveness a) Growth of GDP per person employed 18 Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed GDP per person employed (1990 Constant US$, PPP) 45000 40000 35000 42033 38228 30000 25000 26438 19550 22078 20000 21909 15000 10000 28701 16333 15783 5000 0 SEE EU27 EU8 SEE (Euros) Source: SEE economies provided data for the 2010 baseline in euros. Data from 2000-2010 World Bank. Averages weighted by population No data submitted by Kosovo*. Weights are adjusted accordingly. The 2020 target is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline number by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. 19 Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed 6. Growth of GDP per Person Employed in EUR 2010 2020 ALB BiH 9,767 14,911 13,986 20,875 1.4 1.4 CRO 29,117 37,852 1.3 KOS MKD MNE SER 16,708 14,823 12,319 21,700 1.3 16,113 1.3 SEE 16,333 21,909 Multiplier Notes 1.3 According to the target and projection of OECD for SEE The regional SEE 2010 baseline is a weighted average based on the economies' share in the population of the region. The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on data for population. 20 An initial set of target indicators • Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b) Growth of total trade of goods and services c) Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b) Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth a) Growth of enterprise creation b) Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth a) Growth of overall employment rate b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth a) Increase government effectiveness a) Growth of GDP per person employed 21 Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Enterprise Creation 7. Growth of Enterprise Creation (Net) number of companies registered in the reporting period - number of companies de-registered 2010 2020 ALB 12,504 9,700 BiH 1,608 CRO 4,509 9,000 1,023 1,000 SER -1,914 30,000 SEE 2,643 Multiplier Notes Net company creation in 2020: 13,500 registered – 3,800 deregistered Baseline figure refers to 2012 KOS MKD MNE 22 Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita Exports of goods and services (BoP, current US$) in Mill. 700,000 8,000,000 599,079 7,000,000 600,000 4,000,000 300,000 3,000,000 200,000 122,130 50,887 100,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 SEE EU8 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0 EU27 Source: World Bank No data for Kosovo* and Montenegro were available so the economies are not included in the SEE sum. The 2020 target was computed by multiplying the 2010 baseline with the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. 23 EU 27 5,000,000 400,000 2000 Axis Title 6,000,000 6,503,624 500,000 Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita 8. Growth of Exports of Goods and Services per Capita expressed in EUR 2010 2020 ALB 1,113 2,966 BiH 952 CRO KOS MKD MNE SER 4,008 8,002 2.0 1,547 1,748 1,381 3,094 2.0 3,648 2.6 SEE 1,827 Multiplier Notes 2.7 2010 figure shows a large discrepancy with WB data services export data most probably not included 4,389 2.4 In accordance with the agreed projection The regional SEE 2010 baseline is a weighted average based on the economies' share in the population of the region. The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional SEE 2010 baseline by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on IMF data for population. 24 An initial set of target indicators • Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b) Growth of total trade of goods and services c) Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b) Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth a) Growth of enterprise creation b) Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth a) Growth of overall employment rate b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth a) Increase government effectiveness a) Growth of GDP per person employed 25 Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate Employment (15+) 52.0% 50.2% 55% 45% 44.8% 40.2% 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% SEE EU27 EU8 Source: SEE economies provided baseline data for 2010. World Bank data used for 2001 – 2009. Averages weighted by population based on World Bank 2010 population data. The regional average includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and the FYR Macedonia for all years as well as Serbia for 2005 to 2010. Weights are adjusted accordingly. Kosovo* did not provide data. 26 Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate 9. Growth of Overall Employment Rate (15+) employment rate in the 15+ age group 2010 2020 ALB 47.00 53.00 1.1 BiH CRO KOS MKD MNE SER 32.50 46.60 33.10 55.00 1.0 1.2 38.70 40.30 37.90 42-45 1.1 42.30 1.1 SEE 40.20 44.78 Multiplier Notes 1.1 Indirect calculation taking in the consideration employment and population growth Forecast for 2015 The regional SEE 2010 baseline is a weighted average based on the economies' share in the population of the region. The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional SEE 2010 baseline by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on IMF data for population. 27 Inclusive Growth: Increase Rate of Population with Tertiary Education 10. Increase of Rate of Population With Tertiary Education per cent of population 30-34 years old - census data or other sources 2010 2020 ALB 8.85 15.00 BiH CRO KOS MKD MNE SER SEE 8.20 24.30 17.10 23.60 23.00 17.96 Multiplier Notes 1.7 Indirect calculation taking into consideration average student graduation increasing by 1% annually Per cent of working age population 35.00 1.4 38.50 1.7 28 An initial set of target indicators • Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b) Growth of total trade of goods and services c) Reduction of trade deficit • Integrated Growth a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b) Growth of overall FDI inflows • Smart Growth a) Growth of enterprise creation b) Growth of export of goods and services per capita • Inclusive Growth a) Growth of overall employment rate b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary education • Governance for Growth a) Increase government effectiveness a) Growth of GDP per person employed 29 Governance for Growth: Increase Government Effectiveness Government Effectiveness 2 1.5 1 0.62 SEE average 0.5 -0.27 -0.73 -0.6 -0.18 0.08 -0.10 OECD 0 -0.5 -1 Source: World Bank Year: 2010 The average is a simple average of the economies’ scores. 30 Governance for Growth: Increase Government Effectiveness 11. Increase Government Effectiveness Score on the World Bank Institute index is transformed into a score between 0 to 5. Original scores are on a scale between -2.5 and 2.5. 2010 2020 Multiplier Notes ALB BiH CRO KOS MKD MNE SER 2.23 1.77 3.12 1.90 2.32 2.58 2.40 2.68 2.12 3.74 2.28 2.78 3.10 2.88 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 SEE 2.33 2.80 1.2 The SEE average is a simple average of the economies' scores (ranging between 0 and 5). 31 Thank you for your attention 32 Annex 33 Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services 2. Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services expressed in million USD 2010 2020 ALB 10,188 22,000 2.2 BiH 14,024 21,177 1.5 CRO KOS MKD MNE SER 46,909 120,000 2.6 10,312 4,080 32,976 20,000 1.9 78,000 2.4 SEE sum 118,489 265,773 Multiplier Notes 2.2 Baseline figure shows high discrepancy with int'l sources; Forecasted figure is for 2015 The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard. 34 Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows 5. Growth of Overall FDI Inflows in current USD million ALB BiH CRO KOS MKD MNE SER SEE 2010 2020 1,049 290 544 2,966 470 1,088 2.8 1.6 2.0 210 717 1,138 780 3.7 2,958 2.6 3,948 9,411 Multiplier Notes 2.4 FDI forecast for 2015 in EUR The target sum was calculated by multiplying the regional SEE baseline number for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard. 35