Download SEE 2020 Presentation

Target setting for the SEE 2020
strategy
Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
October 3rd 2012
1
Agenda
• Introduction and objectives
• Target setting for the Overall Strategic Goals
• Target setting for Integrated Growth
• Target setting for Smart Growth
• Target setting for Sustainable Growth
• Target setting for Inclusive Growth
• Target setting for Governance for Growth
2
Transforming the SEE 2020 Vision
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
SEE 2020 Vision adopted at the SEE
Ministerial Conference:
Integrated growth to deepen regional trade
and investment linkages;
Smart growth – innovation and competition
based on value-added rather than labour
costs
Sustainable growth – private sector
competitiveness, entrepreneurship, greener
and energy-efficient development;
Inclusive growth – skills development,
employment creation & labour market
participation by all
Governance for growth – improve capacity
of public administrations to strengthen the
rule of law and reduce corruption
A set of headline targets
to be adopted at the next
Ministerial
3
The proposed process
Nov
2011
Apr
2012
Jun
2012
Sep
2012
Nov
2012
SEE Min
Vision adopted
First draft targets
SEE IC
Targets
discussed
Second draft targets
1st Task Force
Meeting
Written
procedure &
third draft
2nd Task Force
Meeting
SEE IC
Final draft targets
SEE
Min
Targets adopted
4
An initial set of target indicators
• Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth
a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EU
b) Growth of total trade of goods and
services
c) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growth
a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and services
b) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growth
a) Growth of enterprise creation
b) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growth
a) Growth of overall employment rate
b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growth
a) Increase government effectiveness
a) Growth of GDP per person employed
5
An initial set of target indicators
• Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth
a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EU
b) Growth of total trade of goods and
services
c) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growth
a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and services
b) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growth
a) Growth of enterprise creation
b) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growth
a) Growth of overall employment rate
b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growth
a) Increase government effectiveness
a) Growth of GDP per person employed
6
Overall Strategic Targets:
Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU
GDP per capita PPP (% of EU GDP per capita)
80%
70%
60%
67.2%
50%
45.77%
40%
30%
38.35%
20%
10%
0%
SEE average
EU8
Source: World Bank data used for 2000-2009.Data submitted by SEE economies for
2010 only. Eurostat data used for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia due to
discrepancy between national and Eurostat sources.
Averages weighted by population.
Data labels show the average for 2010
No data submitted for Kosovo* and weights were adjusted accordingly.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line
with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of
independence.
7
Overall Strategic Targets:
Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU
1. Increase of GDP per Capita Relative to the EU
expressed as a percentage of EU GDP per capita
2010
2020
Multiplier Notes
ALB
28.00
35.00
1.3
BiH
29.00
35-40
1.3
CRO
59.00
70.00
1.2
MKD
36.48
40-45
1.2
MNE
41.00
48-49
1.2
SER
34.00
41.00
1.2
KOS
SEE
average
37.76
45.77
1.2
Weighted average based on economies' share in the total
population of the region. No data was provided for
Kosovo*. Weights are adjusted to reflect missing data.
8
Overall Strategic Targets:
Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services
1,600,000
16,000,000
1,400,000
14,000,000
1,200,000
12,000,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
800,000
8,000,000
600,000
6,000,000
279,086
400,000
200,000
0
2010: 118,489
SEE
Trade for the EU27
trade for SEE and the EU8
Trade in goods and services (in Mill. US$)
EU8
EU27
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
Source: SEE economies provided data for 2010 baseline. World Bank data used for 20002009.
Data not provided by Kosovo*. Montenegro only provided baseline 2010. No data for Serbia
was available for 2000 to 2006 so the economy is not included in the sum for SEE for these
years.
9
Overall Strategic Targets:
Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services
2. Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services
expressed in millions of
USD
ALB
2010
10,188
2020 Multiplier Notes
22,000
2.2
BiH
14,024
31,978
2.3
CRO
KOS
MKD
MNE
SER
46,909
120,000
2.6
10,312
4,080
32,976
20,000
1.9
78,000
2.4
SEE
118,489 279,086
2.4
Baseline figure shows high discrepancy with int'l sources
The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional
baseline for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020
targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted
for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP
at purchasing power standard.
10
Overall Strategic Targets:
Reduction of Trade Deficit
External balance on goods and services (% of GDP)
5%
1.1%
0.9%
0.3%
0%
-5%
-10%
-5.0%
-15%
-11.8%
-13.0%
-20%
-25%
SEE
EU27
EU8
Source: World Bank data for 2000-2009. SEE economies for 2010 baseline.
Averages weighted by GDP PPP based on Eurostat 2010 data
Kosovo* did not submit data for 2010 and data only available from 2000 to 2005 so the
economy is not included in the average. Weights were adjusted accordingly.
11
Overall Strategic Targets:
Reduction of Trade Deficit
3. Reduction of Trade Deficit / Improvement of Trade Balance
expressed as percent of GDP
ALB
BiH
CRO
KOS
MKD
MNE
SER
SEE
2010
2020
-21.0
-20.8
0.0
-12.0
-27.0
0.0
9.0
-6.2
0.0
-19.0
-28.4
-17.0
-17.0
-20.0
-14.8
2.0
8.4
2.2
-13.0
-11.8
Difference Notes
Deficit forecast for 2015
Weighted average based on economies' share in the total GDP
of the region. No data provided for Kosovo*. Weights are
adjusted to reflect 6 economies and based on Eurostat data
for GDP at purchasing power standard.
12
An initial set of target indicators
• Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth
a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EU
b) Growth of total trade of goods and
services
c) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growth
a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and services
b) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growth
a) Growth of enterprise creation
b) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growth
a) Growth of overall employment rate
b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growth
a) Increase government effectiveness
a) Growth of GDP per person employed
13
Integrated Growth:
Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services)
Value of trade in goods in the region
(in MILL. EUR)
4,036,344
10,000,000
3,818,456
1,000,000
42,983
98,358
100,000
10,000
9,982
5,428
1,000
12,507 for Baseline 2010
100
10
1
2000
2005
2010
SEE
EU27
2015
2020
EU8
Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE
economies for 2010 baseline.
Years: 2004 and 2009
For 2004, the exchange rate used was 1.324$=1€
No data submitted for Kosovo* so the economy is not included in the SEE sum.
14
Integrated Growth:
Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services)
4. Growth of Intra-regional Trade in Goods
expressed in million EUR
2010
2020
ALB
BiH
436.0
3,185.3
1,526
3.5
CRO
3,645.0
12,000
3.3
KOS
MKD
MNE
SER
1,238.0
800.5
3,202
3,500
2.8
12,003
3.7
SEE
12,507
42,983
Multiplier Notes
3.4
According to the target and projections of OECD for SEE
The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional
SEE baseline number for 2010 by the weighted multipliers
of the 2020 targets. Weights are adjusted for missing data
and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing
power standard.
15
Integrated Growth:
Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows
FDI (net inflows, current US$, in millions)
1,500,000
125,000
1,250,000
100,000
1,000,000
75,000
713,264
750,000
50,000
25,000
0
500,000
426,077
20,468
9,992
3,948
1,666
250,000
0
-22,884
-25,000
SEE Total
EU8 Total
-250,000
EU27
Source: SEE economies for 2010 baseline. World Bank data for 2000-2009. Kosovo* did
not submit data.
No data for Kosovo* available for 2000 to 2003 so the economy is not included in the SEE
sum for these years. No data for Montenegro was available for 2000 to 2006 so the
16
economy is not included in the SEE sum.
FDI for EU27
FDI for SEE and EU8
150,000
Integrated Growth:
Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows
5. Growth of Overall FDI Inflows
in current USD million
ALB
BiH
CRO
KOS
MKD
MNE
SER
SEE
2010
2020
1,049
290
544
2,966
763
1,088
2.8
2.6
2.0
210
717
1,138
780
3.7
2,958
2.6
3,948
9,992
Multiplier Notes
2.5
The target sum was calculated by multiplying the regional
SEE baseline number for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of
the 2020 targets. Weights are adjusted for missing data and
are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power
standard.
17
An initial set of target indicators
• Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth
a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EU
b) Growth of total trade of goods and
services
c) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growth
a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and services
b) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growth
a) Growth of enterprise creation
b) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growth
a) Growth of overall employment rate
b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growth
a) Increase government effectiveness
a) Growth of GDP per person employed
18
Smart Growth:
Growth of GDP per person employed
GDP per person employed
(1990 Constant US$, PPP)
45000
40000
35000
42033
38228
30000
25000
26438
19550
22078
20000
21909
15000
10000
28701
16333
15783
5000
0
SEE
EU27
EU8
SEE (Euros)
Source: SEE economies provided data for the 2010 baseline in euros. Data from 2000-2010 World Bank.
Averages weighted by population
No data submitted by Kosovo*. Weights are adjusted accordingly.
The 2020 target is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline number by the weighted multipliers of the
2020 targets provided by SEE economies.
19
Smart Growth:
Growth of GDP per person employed
6. Growth of GDP per Person Employed
in EUR
2010
2020
ALB
BiH
9,767
14,911
13,986
20,875
1.4
1.4
CRO
29,117
37,852
1.3
KOS
MKD
MNE
SER
16,708
14,823
12,319
21,700
1.3
16,113
1.3
SEE
16,333
21,909
Multiplier Notes
1.3
According to the target and projection of OECD for SEE
The regional SEE 2010 baseline is a weighted average based
on the economies' share in the population of the region. The
target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline
by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by
SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and
are based on data for population.
20
An initial set of target indicators
• Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth
a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EU
b) Growth of total trade of goods and
services
c) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growth
a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and services
b) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growth
a) Growth of enterprise creation
b) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growth
a) Growth of overall employment rate
b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growth
a) Increase government effectiveness
a) Growth of GDP per person employed
21
Sustainable Growth:
Growth of Export of Enterprise Creation
7. Growth of Enterprise Creation (Net)
number of companies registered in the reporting period - number of companies de-registered
2010
2020
ALB
12,504
9,700
BiH
1,608
CRO
4,509
9,000
1,023
1,000
SER
-1,914
30,000
SEE
2,643
Multiplier Notes
Net company creation in 2020: 13,500 registered – 3,800
deregistered
Baseline figure refers to 2012
KOS
MKD
MNE
22
Sustainable Growth:
Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita
Exports of goods and services (BoP, current US$) in Mill.
700,000
8,000,000
599,079
7,000,000
600,000
4,000,000
300,000
3,000,000
200,000
122,130
50,887
100,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
SEE
EU8
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
EU27
Source: World Bank
No data for Kosovo* and Montenegro were available so the economies are not
included in the SEE sum.
The 2020 target was computed by multiplying the 2010 baseline with the weighted
multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies.
23
EU 27
5,000,000
400,000
2000
Axis Title
6,000,000
6,503,624
500,000
Sustainable Growth:
Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita
8. Growth of Exports of Goods and Services per Capita
expressed in EUR
2010
2020
ALB
1,113
2,966
BiH
952
CRO
KOS
MKD
MNE
SER
4,008
8,002
2.0
1,547
1,748
1,381
3,094
2.0
3,648
2.6
SEE
1,827
Multiplier Notes
2.7
2010 figure shows a large discrepancy with WB data services export data most probably not included
4,389
2.4
In accordance with the agreed projection
The regional SEE 2010 baseline is a weighted average based
on the economies' share in the population of the region. The
target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional SEE 2010
baseline by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets
provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing
data and are based on IMF data for population.
24
An initial set of target indicators
• Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth
a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EU
b) Growth of total trade of goods and
services
c) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growth
a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and services
b) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growth
a) Growth of enterprise creation
b) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growth
a) Growth of overall employment rate
b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growth
a) Increase government effectiveness
a) Growth of GDP per person employed
25
Inclusive Growth:
Growth of overall employment rate
Employment (15+)
52.0%
50.2%
55%
45%
44.8%
40.2%
35%
25%
15%
5%
-5%
SEE
EU27
EU8
Source: SEE economies provided baseline data for 2010. World Bank data used for 2001 – 2009.
Averages weighted by population based on World Bank 2010 population data.
The regional average includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and the FYR Macedonia for all years
as well as Serbia for 2005 to 2010. Weights are adjusted accordingly. Kosovo* did not provide data.
26
Inclusive Growth:
Growth of overall employment rate
9. Growth of Overall Employment Rate (15+)
employment rate in the 15+ age group
2010
2020
ALB
47.00
53.00
1.1
BiH
CRO
KOS
MKD
MNE
SER
32.50
46.60
33.10
55.00
1.0
1.2
38.70
40.30
37.90
42-45
1.1
42.30
1.1
SEE
40.20
44.78
Multiplier Notes
1.1
Indirect calculation taking in the consideration employment
and population growth
Forecast for 2015
The regional SEE 2010 baseline is a weighted average based
on the economies' share in the population of the region. The
target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional SEE
2010 baseline by the weighted multipliers of the 2020
targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for
missing data and are based on IMF data for population.
27
Inclusive Growth:
Increase Rate of Population with Tertiary Education
10. Increase of Rate of Population With Tertiary Education
per cent of population 30-34 years old - census data or other sources
2010
2020
ALB
8.85
15.00
BiH
CRO
KOS
MKD
MNE
SER
SEE
8.20
24.30
17.10
23.60
23.00
17.96
Multiplier Notes
1.7
Indirect calculation taking into consideration average
student graduation increasing by 1% annually
Per cent of working age population
35.00
1.4
38.50
1.7
28
An initial set of target indicators
• Overall Strategic Targets: • Sustainable Growth
a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in
PPP relative to the EU
b) Growth of total trade of goods and
services
c) Reduction of trade deficit
• Integrated Growth
a) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods
and services
b) Growth of overall FDI inflows
• Smart Growth
a) Growth of enterprise creation
b) Growth of export of goods and services per
capita
• Inclusive Growth
a) Growth of overall employment rate
b) Increase of rate of population with tertiary
education
• Governance for Growth
a) Increase government effectiveness
a) Growth of GDP per person employed
29
Governance for Growth:
Increase Government Effectiveness
Government Effectiveness
2
1.5
1
0.62
SEE average
0.5
-0.27
-0.73
-0.6
-0.18
0.08
-0.10
OECD
0
-0.5
-1
Source: World Bank
Year: 2010
The average is a simple average of the economies’
scores.
30
Governance for Growth:
Increase Government Effectiveness
11. Increase Government
Effectiveness
Score on the World Bank Institute index is transformed into a score between 0 to 5. Original scores are on a
scale between -2.5 and 2.5.
2010
2020
Multiplier Notes
ALB
BiH
CRO
KOS
MKD
MNE
SER
2.23
1.77
3.12
1.90
2.32
2.58
2.40
2.68
2.12
3.74
2.28
2.78
3.10
2.88
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
SEE
2.33
2.80
1.2
The SEE average is a simple average of the economies'
scores (ranging between 0 and 5).
31
Thank you for your
attention
32
Annex
33
Overall Strategic Targets:
Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services
2. Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services
expressed in million USD
2010
2020
ALB
10,188
22,000
2.2
BiH
14,024
21,177
1.5
CRO
KOS
MKD
MNE
SER
46,909
120,000
2.6
10,312
4,080
32,976
20,000
1.9
78,000
2.4
SEE sum
118,489 265,773
Multiplier Notes
2.2
Baseline figure shows high discrepancy with int'l sources;
Forecasted figure is for 2015
The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional
baseline for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020
targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted
for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP
at purchasing power standard.
34
Integrated Growth:
Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows
5. Growth of Overall FDI Inflows
in current USD million
ALB
BiH
CRO
KOS
MKD
MNE
SER
SEE
2010
2020
1,049
290
544
2,966
470
1,088
2.8
1.6
2.0
210
717
1,138
780
3.7
2,958
2.6
3,948
9,411
Multiplier Notes
2.4
FDI forecast for 2015 in EUR
The target sum was calculated by multiplying the regional
SEE baseline number for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of
the 2020 targets. Weights are adjusted for missing data and
are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power
standard.
35