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Socio-economic indicators and inflation Years 2007 2008 2009 2010 GDP, mln.AZN Growth rate, % GDP per capita, $ 28360,5 25,0 3474 40137,2 10,8 5603 34578,7 9,3 4874,1 41600 5.0 5797,8 Oil GDP, growth rate, % 36,8 6,8 14,3 1,8 Non-oil GDP, growth rate, % Inflation, % Average yearly Income of population, growth rate, % Average monthly wage, AZN growth rate, % 11,4 15,9 3,2 7,9 16,7 40,3 20,8 37,8 1,5 8,0 5,7 13.3 214,0 42,0 274,4 24,2 298,0 8,6 325 9.1 Nominal GDP capacity and growth rate 45000 40,00% 40000 35,00% 34,50% 35000 30000 30,00% 26,40% 25% 25,00% 25000 20,00% 20000 15,00% 15000 10,80% 10000 9,30% 5000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 GDP capacity (mln.manat) 2009 10,00% 5,00% 5% 3,80% 0,00% 2010 2011 GDP growth rate (%) 2005-2008 2009-2010 GDP growth rate , % 24.2% 7.2% Oil sector growth rate , % 42.9% 8.3% Non-oil sector growth rate , % 11.8% 5.6% CPI, % 13.9% 3.6% Growth rate of nominal incomes, % 31.8% 10.7% Growth rate of nominal wage, % 27.0% 8.9% Growth rate of budget expenditure, % 64.3% 6.8% 65% 14% Growth rate of bank activities , % Share of GDP utilization in the GDP (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Last consumption General collected Net export Statistical difference Inflation and non-oil GDP Inflation and non-oil GDP growth 24.0% 21.0% 20.8% 16.7% 18.0% 15.0% 11.8% 12.0% 15.7% 9.6% 6.0% 7.9% 11.3% 9.0% 8.3% 8.3% 3.2% 5.7% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% 2005 2006 inlfation 2007 2008 2009 2010 non-oil GDP growth 6 The growth rate of salary in oil and nonoil sectors Average monthly salary in oil and non-oil sectors (AZN) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 Oil 2012 2013 2014 Non-oil 7 The poverty level, in percent Azərbaycanda rəsmi yoxsulluq səviyyəsi (% ) 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 46.70% 44.70% 40.20% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 29.30% 21% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 15.80% 13.20% 11% 9.10% 5.00% 0.00% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 8 Multidimensional Poverty Index Multidimensional Poverty Index, MPI 0.021 Poverty rate on MPI 5.4% The number of population on MPI, mln., person 0.5 Poverty on income (1.25 $ per day) 2% Poverty on income (2 $ per day) 2% Official poverty level (2010) Population (mln., 2010) HDI, 2010 104 ölkə arasında HDI status 9.1% 9.1 0.787 66 orta (medium) 9 De-industrialization trend in the composition of GDP (over sectors, %) 2014 (p) 6,50% 41,00% 8,60% 35,20% 8,70% 2013 (p) 6,80% 41,00% 8,80% 34,70% 8,70% 2012 (p) 6,80% 43% 2011(p) 6,80% 45,30% 2010 5,40% 52,60% 2009 6,70% 50,00% 2008 5,60% 2007 6,50% 59,50% 2006 7,10% 57,30% 2005 agriculture industry 8,40% 31% 8,10% 7,50% 27,40% 7,40% 49,40% 20% 32,80% 9,00% 58,50% 9,20% 0% 8,80% 40% construction 28% 7,00% 6,70% 7,70% 9,40% 60% services 22% 7,10% 7,60% 6,70% 21% 6,60% 22,40% 5,50% 24,40% 80% net taxes 7,60% 100% Growth of non-oil investments, % 100 12000 Investment expenditures, mln AZN 81 9716 80 9074 10000 7359 2948 8000 60 2805 40 1985 36 6000 26 20 19 16 4000 6768 6269 5374 0 2000 2008 -20 0 2008 2009 non-oil 2010 oil 2009 -14 Private non-oil investments Non-oil investments 2010 4.2 6.4 5.8 50.8 5.2 32.8 4.1 6.4 47.9 36.4 Internal resources of firms Budget resources Bank credtis Private funds of households Others Internal resources of firms Budget resources Bank credtis Private funds of households Others Structure of imports machines and electrical equipments black and bright metals 26.19% 28.83% means of transportation food products consumption goods 2.49% 2.31% furniture and its parts 0.76% 11.93% 0.78% pharmaceutical goods 14.63% 12.07% wood-derived materials others 0.88% 0.73% 5.07% Structure of Exports 0.22% 0.54% 6.02% Raw oil Processed oil materials Chemical industry materials Plant and animal fats Bright and black metals Fruits and vegetables Others 86.53% Years 2003 2007 2008 2009 2010 1220,9 6007,3 10763,0 10325,9 11 402,5 34,1 55 79,2 -4,1 10,4 470 3564 7299,6 6897 7177 4,5 35,8 58 104,8 -5,5 751 2443,3 3463,4 3429,0 32,9 51 41,8 -1,0 State budget expenditure , mln.AZN Growth rate, % 1235 6058,7 10680,0 10567,0 11 766,0 32,5 6,0 76,3 -1,9 12 Including investment expenditure, mln.AZN Growth rate, % 90 1915 4276,0 3177,0 4 147,0 16,3 2,2 times 2,1 times -25,7 Incomes of state budget, mln.AZN Growth rate, % Oil incomes, mln.AZN Growth rate, % Non-oil incomes, mln.AZN Growth rate, % 4223 23,1 12000 Budget Revenues, mln AZN 11400 10300 10000 8000 7177 (63%) 6384 (62%) 6000 4223 3916 4000 2000 0 overall revenues oil revenues non-oil revenues Budget Expenditures, mln AZN 3500 3345 3000 2500 2000 1316.3 792.1 897.6 1500 807.2 500 967.4 800.8 1000 800.4 761.1 777.2 320.4 180.5 0 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec 14000 12000 Budget Expenses, mln AZN 11766 10503.9 10000 8000 7619 6936.6 6000 4147 4000 3567.3 2000 0 overall expenses current expenses capital expenses 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2007 account level 2008 onon-oil GDP growth 2009 inflation 2010 olending rates Interest Rates 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% jan feb mar apr AZN Deposits may jun USD Deposits jul AZN Credits aug sep USD Credits oct nov dec 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007 Increase of assets 2008 Increase of credits 2009 Increase of deposits 2010 Increase of capital 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2007 return on assets 2008 2009 return on equity 2010 average return on interest 1. Considering the risk of continuing growth rate of the economy after 2011, the procyclic macroeconomic policy should be replaced with the sustainable economic development-based macro-economic policy; in addition, dependence of the economic growth rate on crude oil prices should be gradually neutralized; 2. Problems in GDP structure, specifically the risks of determining role of consupmtion and capital accumulation should be considered in macroeconomic policy; 3. Particular strategy should be developed for the development of the agricultural sector and non-oil industry and the control over the implementation of state programs should be accelerated; 4. Business and investment climate should be developed in order to further increase the share of non-oil sector in investments and the GDP; 5. New phase of government assistance to entrepreneurship should be launched to Qeyri-neft ixrac potensialını və vergitutma bazasını genişləndirmək üçün sahibkarlığa dövlət köməyinin yeni mərhələsi başlanılmalı; 6. Addressed “agitation” policy should be realized to decrease the salaries difference between the economic sectors (for example, application of alleviated tax and social payment rates for the entities in the non-oil sector where salaries are lower than in the oil sector); 7. Improvement of the national accounting system and statistics on macroeconomic indicators and poverty; 8. Permanent and unchangable incomes approach should be applied to the oil revenue expenditures, as envisaged in the “Long-term strategy on oil and gas revenue management”; 9. Financial policy directive, based on solid foundations, should be adopted on “Fund-budget” relations münasibətləri and transfers from SOFAZ should be limited to particular amount of its assets; 10. Azerbaijani government should add a stronger strategic composition to the budget and align the fiscal policy with the strategcy and programs related to the medium and long-term development of the country; 11. Structural reforms should be undertaken in the state management, decentralization policy should be expanded and financial independence given to the health and educational institutions in the first place in the frame of fiscal decentralization reforms in Azerbaijan; 12. Classification of expenditures on paragraphs, articles and items subject to ammendments according to the decision of the Cabinet of Ministers on approval of the “Unified budget classification of Azerbaijan Republic” should be complied with the real needs; 13. Tax administration should be improved to increase the coefficient of direct tax incomes collection in provision of state budget incomes; regulative and stimulating, aside from fiscal functions of the taxes, should be strengthened and the sources of tax debts emergence researched. 14. The budget deficit, along with the other fiscal parameters, should also be forecasted for the medium term period at the level, not harmful for the macroeconomic stability and the sources of its coverage be complied with the general fiscal policy; 15. Considering that the increase of state expenditures is among the factors seriously affecting the inflation, it is important that they grow in tact with absorption capacity of the economy. Thus, the absorption capacity of the economy should be considered in budget increases, alongside with the principle of stability; 16. Competitiveness in the bank sektor should be increased, power concentration decreased and administrative distortion eliminated in the credit market to manage the growing risks in the bank sector and prevent the possible crisis. Gubad Ibadoglu: [email protected] Kenan Aslanli: [email protected] Sohrab Farhadov: [email protected] National Budget Group Baki, Azerbaijan AZ 1065 44, Jafar Jabbarli str., Caspian Plaza 3, floor 9 Phone: (+99412) 437 18 20 E-mail: [email protected] www.nbg.az www.budget.az