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The Automobile Era Norman W. Garrick Lecture 4 Sustainable Transportation Vehicle Miles Travelled 3,500,000,000,000 3,000,000,000,000 2,500,000,000,000 2,000,000,000,000 1,500,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 500,000,000,000 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html 1915 Model T http://www.seriouswheels.com/pics-1800-1919/1915-Ford-Model-T-b-nf.jpg Henry Ford did not invent the automobile or the assembly line. He did, however, change the world by using an assembly line technique to produce cars which could be afforded by everyone. From 1909 to 1927, the Ford Motor Company built more than 15 million Model T cars. Without a doubt, Henry Ford transformed the economic and social fabric of the 20th century. http://www.modelt.ca/background.html http://www.uniquecarsandparts.com.au/images/car_info/large/ford_model_t_ad.jpg What Issues of Sustainability are Associated with Increased VMT? 3,000,000,000,000 miles per year 3 Trillion Miles How much fuel? At average fleet efficiency rate of 20 mpg we use 150,000,000,000 gallons of gasoline per year 150,000,000,000 gallons of gasoline per year What is the retail cost this gasoline? At an average cost of $2:80 per gallon We spend $420,000,000,000 on gasoline per year $14,300,000,000,000 Gross Domestic Product of the USA Retail gasoline cost as a fraction of USA GDP? 3% % of GDP spent on Housing 24 % Healthcare 16 % Food 12 % Transportation 11% Education 7 % VMT/day/capita 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html VMT/capita in USA • Peaked at 27.9 miles per day per capita in 2004 • Deceased by 1.4 miles per day in 2008 – largest one year decrease ever in absolute terms • In 1942 and 1943, VMT/capita decreased by over 20% in consecutive years • In contrast the decrease in 2008 was only 5% • The only times VMT/capita decreased was during i) ii) iii) iv) v) The great depression of the 1930s, World War II The Oil Crisis of the 1970s, and The recession of the early 1980s Now VMT in USA is about 27 miles per day per person VMT/capita/day Portland (OR) Metropolitan Area 13.5 VMT per Capita 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 VMT/capita versus GDP Ref: Millard-Ball, A and Schipper, L ‘Are We Reaching a Plateau or “Peak” Travel? Trends in Passenger Transportation in Six Industrialized Countries’, TRB Meeting 2010 Motor Vehicles/1000 in USA 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 Central and South America China 2005 Africa 2005 Western Europe China 1995 200 100 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html Motor Vehicles in USA 800 per 1000 people Total Number of Vehicles versus Population in USA 1900 to 2005 350000000 300000000 250000000 200000000 150000000 100000000 50000000 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html Vehicles versus VMT in USA 1900 to 2005 9001 8001 7001 6001 1900 = 1 5001 4001 3001 2001 1001 1 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html VMT per Vehicle in USA 1900 to 2005 39.0 34.0 29.0 24.0 19.0 14.0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html Creating Automobility 30 1000 25 800 20 600 15 10 5 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 400 200 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 How did we go from 5 to 200 vehicles per 1000 in less that 20 years? This change required an enormous shift in how we lived and the structure of our cities. One battle ground in this revolution was our city streets. Before the advent of the automobile, the users of city streets were diverse and included children at play and pedestrians at large. By 1930, most streets were primarily motor thoroughfares where pedestrians were condemned as ‘jaywalkers.’ In Fighting Traffic, Peter Norton argues that to accommodate automobiles, the American city required not only a physical change but also a social one: before the city could be reconstructed for the sake of motorists, its streets had to be socially reconstructed as places where motorists belonged. It was not an evolution, but a bloody and sometimes violent revolution. Shared Space A New Challenge to Use of Streets