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N. Gregory Mankiw Brief Principles of Macroeconomics Sixth Edition 8 Saving, Investment, and the Financial System © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Premium PowerPoint Slides by Ron Cronovich In this chapter, look for the answers to these questions: • What are the main types of financial institutions in the U.S. economy, and what is their function? • What are the three kinds of saving? • What’s the difference between saving and investment? • How does the financial system coordinate saving and investment? • How do govt policies affect saving, investment, and the interest rate? © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 1 Financial Institutions The financial system: the group of institutions that helps match the saving of one person with the investment of another. Financial markets: institutions through which savers can directly provide funds to borrowers. Examples: The Bond Market. A bond is a certificate of indebtedness. The Stock Market. A stock is a claim to partial ownership in a firm. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 2 Bond Market http://www.youtube.com/user/etrade#p/c/EDA5E6EEB6E F39B6/12/VFK30CspfJM Bonds = IOU. The bond identifies the time at which the loan will be repaid (called “date of maturity”). The Bond holders give there money to Company/Government in exchange for a promise of repayment of principal plus interest. • Sale of bond to raise money = debt finance • Length of time = Term • Never mature = Perpetuity • Probability that the borrower will default = Credit Risk • High Risk Corporations = Junk Bonds © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 3 Stock Market Stocks = Represents ownership in a company. After a corporation sells shares to the public, these shares trade among stockholders on organized stock exchanges (markets). Compared to bonds, stocks offer higher risk and potentially higher returns. In US – major exchanges = NYSE, American stock exchange, and the NASDAQ. Sale of a stock to raise money = equity finance Avg. prices of groups of stocks = stock index © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 4 Financial Institutions Financial intermediaries: institutions through which savers can indirectly provide funds to borrowers. Examples: Banks Mutual funds – institutions that sell shares to the public and use the proceeds to buy portfolios of stocks and bonds © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 5 Quick Quiz What is a Stock? What is a Bond? How are they Different? Same? © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 6 The Financial Crisis of 2008–2009 http://abcnews.go.com/Business/fullpage?id=9549471 A financial crisis led to a deep recession in the U.S. and around the world. A few unemployment rates: 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 USA France U.K. Canada Sweden 3 12-2007 01-2008 02-2008 03-2008 04-2008 05-2008 06-2008 07-2008 07-2008 08-2008 09-2008 10-2008 11-2008 12-2008 01-2009 02-2009 03-2009 04-2009 05-2009 06-2009 07-2009 08-2009 09-2009 10-2009 11-2009 12-2009 % of labor force 9 FYI: Elements of Financial Crises Large decline in some asset prices 2008–2009: Housing prices fell 30%. Insolvencies at financial institutions 2008–2009: Banks and other institutions failed when many homeowners stopped paying their mortgages. Decline in confidence in financial institutions 2008–2009: Customers with uninsured deposits began pulling their funds out of financial institutions. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 8 FYI: Elements of Financial Crises Credit crunch 2008–2009: Borrowers unable to get loans because troubled lenders not confident in borrowers’ credit-worthiness. Economic downturn 2008–2009: Failing financial institutions and a fall in investment caused GDP to fall and unemployment to rise. Vicious circle 2008–2009: The downturn reduced profits and asset values, which worsened the crisis. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 9 To simplify – book uses closed economy Closed Economy does not interact with other economies © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 10 Different Kinds of Saving Recall: Y=C+I+G+NX Y=GDP C=Consumption I=Investment G=Gov’t Purchases NX=Net Exports (exports-imports) In a CLOSED Economy: Y=C+I+G To see what this can tell us about financial markets, we must subtract C and G from both sides: Thus: Y – C – G = I Y-C-G is the total income in the economy that remains after paying consumption and gov’t purchases – this amount is called national savings, or just savings. Notice that Savings=Investment © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 11 Different Kinds of Saving T=Government collected Taxes minus transfer payments (SS, Welfare, etc) Private saving - The amount of income that households have left after paying taxes and consumption. = The portion of households’ income that is not used for consumption or paying taxes =Y–T–C Public saving – The amount of tax revenue that the gov’t has left after paying for its spending. = Tax revenue less government spending =T–G © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 12 National Saving National saving = private saving + public saving = = (Y – T – C) + (T – G) Y – C – G = the portion of national income that is not used for consumption or government purchases © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 13 Saving and Investment Recall the national income accounting identity: Y = C + I + G + NX For the rest of this chapter, focus on the closed economy case: Y=C+I+G national saving Solve for I: I = Y–C–G = (Y – T – C) + (T – G) Saving = investment in a closed economy © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 14 Budget Deficits and Surpluses Budget surplus – An excess of tax revenue over government spending. = If T exceeds G = T–G = public saving Budget deficit – A shortfall of tax revenue from gov’t spending. = If G is larger than T = G–T = – (public saving) © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 15 ACTIVE LEARNING A. Calculations 1 Suppose GDP equals $10 trillion, consumption equals $6.5 trillion, the government spends $2 trillion and has a budget deficit of $300 billion. First Define (Use Equations): public saving, taxes, private saving, national saving, and investment. Find public saving, taxes, private saving, national saving, and investment. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. ACTIVE LEARNING Answers, part A Given: Y = 10.0, 1 C = 6.5, G = 2.0, G – T = 0.3 Public saving = T – G = – 0.3 Taxes: T = G – 0.3 = 1.7 Private saving = Y – T – C = 10 – 1.7 – 6.5 = 1.8 National saving = Y – C – G = 10 – 6.5 = 2 = 1.5 Investment = national saving = 1.5 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. ACTIVE LEARNING 1 B. How a tax cut affects saving Use the numbers from the preceding exercise, but suppose now that the government cuts taxes by $200 billion. In each of the following two scenarios, determine what happens to public saving, private saving, national saving, and investment. 1. Consumers save the full proceeds of the tax cut. 2. Consumers save 1/4 of the tax cut and spend the other 3/4. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. ACTIVE LEARNING Answers, part B 1 In both scenarios, public saving falls by $200 billion, and the budget deficit rises from $300 billion to $500 billion. 1. If consumers save the full $200 billion, national saving is unchanged, so investment is unchanged. 2. If consumers save $50 billion and spend $150 billion, then national saving and investment each fall by $150 billion. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. ACTIVE LEARNING 1 C. Discussion questions The two scenarios from this exercise were: 1. Consumers save the full proceeds of the tax cut. 2. Consumers save 1/4 of the tax cut and spend the other 3/4. Which of these two scenarios do you think is more realistic? Why is this question important? © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. The Meaning of Saving and Investment Private saving is the income remaining after households pay their taxes and pay for consumption. Examples of what households do with saving: Buy corporate bonds or equities Purchase a certificate of deposit at the bank Buy shares of a mutual fund Let accumulate in saving or checking accounts © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 21 The Meaning of Saving and Investment Investment is the purchase of new capital. Examples of investment: General Motors spends $250 million to build a new factory in Flint, Michigan. You buy $5000 worth of computer equipment for your business. Your parents spend $300,000 to have a new house built. Remember: In economics, investment is NOT the purchase of stocks and bonds! © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 22 The Market for Loanable Funds A supply–demand model of the financial system Helps us understand how the financial system coordinates saving & investment how govt policies and other factors affect saving, investment, the interest rate © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 23 The Market for Loanable Funds Assume: only one financial market All savers deposit their saving in this market. All borrowers take out loans from this market. There is one interest rate, which is both the return to saving and the cost of borrowing. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 24 The Market for Loanable Funds The supply of loanable funds comes from saving: Households with extra income can loan it out and earn interest. Public saving, if positive, adds to national saving and the supply of loanable funds. If negative, it reduces national saving and the supply of loanable funds. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 25 The Slope of the Supply Curve Interest Rate Supply 6% 3% 60 80 An increase in the interest rate makes saving more attractive, which increases the quantity of loanable funds supplied. Loanable Funds ($billions) © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 26 The Market for Loanable Funds The demand for loanable funds comes from investment: Firms borrow the funds they need to pay for new equipment, factories, etc. Households borrow the funds they need to purchase new houses. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 27 The Slope of the Demand Curve A fall in the interest rate reduces the cost of borrowing, which increases the quantity of loanable funds demanded. Interest Rate 7% 4% Demand 50 80 Loanable Funds ($billions) © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 28 Equilibrium Interest Rate Supply The interest rate adjusts to equate supply and demand. The eq’m quantity of L.F. equals eq’m investment and eq’m saving. 5% Demand 60 Loanable Funds ($billions) © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 29 Policy 1: Saving Incentives Interest Rate S1 S2 5% 4% D1 60 70 Tax incentives for saving increase the supply of L.F. …which reduces the eq’m interest rate and increases the eq’m quantity of L.F. Loanable Funds ($billions) © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 30 Policy 2: Investment Incentives Interest Rate An investment tax credit increases the demand for L.F. S1 6% 5% D2 …which raises the eq’m interest rate and increases the eq’m quantity of L.F. D1 60 70 Loanable Funds ($billions) © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 31 ACTIVE LEARNING Budget deficits 2 Use the loanable funds model to analyze the effects of a government budget deficit: Draw the diagram showing the initial equilibrium. Determine which curve shifts when the government runs a budget deficit. Draw the new curve on your diagram. What happens to the equilibrium values of the interest rate and investment? © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. ACTIVE LEARNING Answers Interest Rate S2 2 S1 A budget deficit reduces national saving and the supply of L.F. …which increases the eq’m interest rate and decreases the eq’m quantity of L.F. and investment. 6% 5% D1 50 60 Loanable Funds ($billions) © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. Budget Deficits, Crowding Out, and Long-Run Growth Our analysis: Increase in budget deficit causes fall in investment. The govt borrows to finance its deficit, leaving less funds available for investment. This is called crowding out. Recall from the preceding chapter: Investment is important for long-run economic growth. Hence, budget deficits reduce the economy’s growth rate and future standard of living. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 34 The U.S. Government Debt The government finances deficits by borrowing (selling government bonds). Persistent deficits lead to a rising govt debt. The ratio of govt debt to GDP is a useful measure of the government’s indebtedness relative to its ability to raise tax revenue. Historically, the debt-GDP ratio usually rises during wartime and falls during peacetime—until the early 1980s. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 35 U.S. Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP, 1970–2010 120% WW2 100% 63.6% in 2010 80% 60% Revolutionary War Civil War WW1 40% 20% 0% 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 CONCLUSION Like many other markets, financial markets are governed by the forces of supply and demand. One of the Ten Principles from Chapter 1: Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity. Financial markets help allocate the economy’s scarce resources to their most efficient uses. Financial markets also link the present to the future: They enable savers to convert current income into future purchasing power, and borrowers to acquire capital to produce goods and services in the future. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 37 S U MMA RY • The U.S. financial system is made up of many types of financial institutions, like the stock and bond markets, banks, and mutual funds. • National saving equals private saving plus public saving. • In a closed economy, national saving equals investment. The financial system makes this happen. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. S U MMA RY • The supply of loanable funds comes from saving. The demand for funds comes from investment. The interest rate adjusts to balance supply and demand in the loanable funds market. • A government budget deficit is negative public saving, so it reduces national saving, the supply of funds available to finance investment. • When a budget deficit crowds out investment, it reduces the growth of productivity and GDP. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.