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Matakuliah Tahun Versi : F0392/Simulasi Perdagangan di Bursa Efek : 2005 : 1/3 Pertemuan 01 Makro Ekonomi dan Industri 1 Learning Outcomes Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa akan mampu : • Mencari informasi tentang makro ekonomi dan sektor industri 2 Outline Materi • • • • • Inflasi dan Suku Bunga Surplus dan Defisit APBN Neraca Perdagangan Nilai Tukar Uang Siklus Bisnis dan Industri 3 Technical & Fundamental Analysis • Technical analysis – the belief that security prices follow recurrent, predictable patterns • Fundamental analysis – the belief that every security eventually sells for its intrinsic value 4 Fundamental Analysis 5 Fundamental Analysis Objective : Value Shares • Fundamental Analysis: the process of using fundamental information about a company to arrive at an estimate of the share price • Fundamental would influence opinion of value • Value present value of future cash flows 6 Fundamental Analysis • Issue: Must forecast EPS, DPS and growth • Must forecast economy ‘better’ than others, then translate into investment advice • Economic forecast => Asset Allocation Recession: Bonds Stocks Expansion: Bonds Stocks Stocks => Which Industry? => Which Co’s 7 Fundamental Analysis • Top Down Analysis: * Global Economy * Macroeconomy * Industry Analysis * Equity Valuation Models • Economic forecast => Industry => Co’s 8 Global Economy • Historically -- highly variable growth • Why important? Export Co’s - growth opportunities Competition - imports Exchange rates 9 Effect of Exchange Rates • Exchange rate - price of one currency in terms of another • Rising $ ==> takes more of foreign currency to buy a $ (price of $’s ) * Hurts exports - US goods more expensive * Makes imports more competitive * Helps foreign investment in US * Hurts US investment in foreign 10 Effect of Exchange Rates • Falling $ ==> takes more $ to buy foreign currency (price of $’s ) * Helps exports - US goods cheaper * Makes imports more expensive * Hurts foreign investment in US * Helps US investment in foreign countries 11 Macroeconomy • GDP – Auto – Steel – Manufacturing in general • Inflation – Regulated co’s; utilities – Input prices more flexible than output – Oil companies w/reserves 12 Macroeconomy • Exchange Rates – Export sensitive: want weak dollar – Import sensitive (inputs): want strong dollar • Interest rates – Housing – Consumer durables – Business investment – Financial services companies – Utilities 13 Macroeconomy • Consumer sentiment – Autos – Consumer durables • Fiscal Policy – Government Spending – Taxes 14 Monetary Policy • Money supply & prices • Open market operations: Fed buys/sells bonds => two impacts Market Clearing (short-run) Buys ==> reserves ; bond prices ; rates Sells ==> reserves ; bond prices ; rates Inflation Expectations (long-run) 15 Leading Economic Indicators • Tend to lead rest of economy: Money Supply Stock Market Weekly hours Changes in raw materials prices ∆’s in consumer expectations 16 Industry Analysis • Issue: How sensitive is industry to business cycle? • First: Define Industry – SIC codes (recently revised) – Moodys, S&P, Value Line forecasts 17 Sensitivity to Business Cycle • Sensitivity of Sales Sensitive: Autos, Steel, Luxuries Non-Sensitive: Necessities; cons. Staples • Operating Leverage - firms with high OL are more sensitive (more fixed costs => cannot reduce costs with sales) • Financial Leverage - use of debt financing 18 Industry Analysis • Industry Life Cycles or Phases – Start up (product development; rapid growth) – Consolidation (software; stable growth) – Maturity (utilities; slowing growth) – Decline (domestic tobacco) • High growers => profit opport. => competition Ease of entry ==> competition 19 Summary Economy Sales Operating/Financial Leverage Earnings (Cash Flow) 20 Tugas Kerjakan dan kumpulkan pada Pert 02 • Tugas 01-1 • Tugas 01-2 • Tugas 01-3 21