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Introduction to Economics Macroeconomics The US Economy Llad Phillips 1 Quiz: Median = 32 Score 39-40 37-38 35-36 33-34 30-32 27-29 24-26 21-23 -20 Grade A AB+ B BC+ C CD+ Number 8 12 18 21 31 16 14 8 3 Outline Economics in the News Review of Chapters 20, 21, and 24 The banking system and the Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: Does the Fed get the timing right? Llad Phillips 3 Conference Board Index of Consumer Confidence falls 14.3 points in September to lowest level since 1993! Index is at 79.3 (1985=100) Is consumer spending going to collapse? Is it going to be a rough Christmas for retailers? Llad Phillips 4 Impact of the Business Cycle on the Public Sector The University of California Llad Phillips 5 California State Budget Governor Davis Warns of a 15% Budget Cut for 2002-2003 Daily Nexus, Thursday October 13, 2001 Policy Implications: Raising Student Fees? Llad Phillips 6 UC Budget, General Fund Component, Millions of Nominal $ 4000 3500 3000 2000 1500 1000 500 0 68 -6 9 70 -7 1 72 -7 3 74 -7 5 76 -7 7 78 -7 9 80 -8 1 82 -8 3 84 -8 5 86 -8 7 88 -8 9 90 -9 1 92 -9 3 94 -9 5 96 -9 7 98 -9 9 00 -0 1 00 -0 3 $ 2500 Fiscal Year Llad Phillips 7 How has UC Fared Over Time? Does UC get a fair share of state money? UC Budget Share = UC Budget/CA Gen Fund Llad Phillips 8 UC Share of CA General Fund Budget 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 68 -6 9 70 -7 1 72 -7 3 74 -7 5 76 -7 7 78 -7 9 80 -8 1 82 -8 3 84 -8 5 86 -8 7 88 -8 9 90 -9 1 92 -9 3 94 -9 5 96 -9 7 98 -9 9 00 -0 1 00 -0 3 Percent 5.00% Fiscal Year Llad Phillips 9 Trends in California Government Proposition 13 (1970’s): limited local property tax, shifted fiscal power to the state Gann Initiative(1970’s): tried to limit state government to constant real expenditures per person, ie limit the size of government Relative Size of Government = CA Gen Fund Expenditures/ CA Personal Income Llad Phillips 10 CA General Fund Expenditures As a % of CA Personal Income 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 68 -6 9 70 -7 1 72 -7 3 74 -7 5 76 -7 7 78 -7 9 80 -8 1 82 -8 3 84 -8 5 86 -8 7 88 -8 9 90 -9 1 92 -9 3 94 -9 5 96 -9 7 98 -9 9 00 -0 1 00 -0 3 Percent 5.00% Fiscal Year Llad Phillips 11 UC Budget Forecast for 2002-2003 UC Budget, GEN FUND = UC Budget Share x Relative Size of Government x CA Personal Income UC Budget = (UC Budget/CA Gen Fund) x ( CA Gen Fund/ CA Personal Income) x CA Personal Income UC Budget, GEN Fund = 0.045 x 0.07 x CA Personal Income 68 -6 9 70 -7 1 72 -7 3 74 -7 5 76 -7 7 78 -7 9 80 -8 1 82 -8 3 84 -8 5 86 -8 7 88 -8 9 90 -9 1 92 -9 3 94 -9 5 96 -9 7 98 -9 9 00 -0 1 00 -0 3 Billions $ CA Personal Income, Billions of Nominal $ 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Fiscal Year Llad Phillips 13 Chapter 20 Llad Phillips 14 Production, Income, and the Circular Flow Llad Phillips The circular flow diagram shows how production of goods and services generates income for households and how households purchase goods and services produced 15 by firms. U.S. Real GDP 1930-2000 • Real GDP has grown substantially over this period. Consumption Expenditures Consumption expenditures are purchases of newly produced goods and services by households. Consumption is broken down into: • Durable goods that last for a long time. • Nondurable goods that last for a short time. • Services that reflect work done in which people play a prominent role in the delivery. • Consumption comprises 67% of total purchases. Llad Phillips 17 U.S. Trade Balance as a Share of GDP, 1960 - 2000 Llad Phillips 18 Who Gets the Income? Composition of U.S. National Income, Second Quarter 2000 (billions of dollars) National income 7,983 Compensation of employees 5,603 Corporate profits 964 Rental income 141 Proprietor’s income 709 Net interest 566 • Approximately 70% of all national income goes to workers in the form of wages and benefits. GDP as a Measure of Welfare GDP is our best measure of the value of output produced, but not a perfect measure. There are several recognized flaws in the construction of GDP: 3) GDP ignores the underground economy, where transactions are not reported to official authorities. 4) Finally, GDP does not value changes in the environment that arise from the production of output. Llad Phillips 20 Chapter 21 Llad Phillips 21 Definitions The unemployment rate is the percentage of people in the labor force who are unemployed. • The labor force participation rate is the fraction of the population that is over 16 years of age that is in the labor force. Llad Phillips 22 U.S. Inflation Rate, 1950-2000, Based on Chain Price Index Llad Phillips 23 Chapter 24 Llad Phillips 24 Business Cycles and Economic Fluctuations A recession is a period when real GDP falls for two consecutive quarters. It starts at the peak of an increase in output, and ends at a trough, the time at which output stops falling in a recession. • A depression is a prolonged period of decline in output, or a severe recession. During the Great Depression, 1929 through 1933, real GDP fell by over 33%, and unemployment rose to 25%. Llad Phillips 25 The 1990 Recession Llad Phillips 26 Nine Postwar Recessions Peak November 1948 July 1953 August 1957 April 1960 December 1969 November 1973 January 1980 July 1981 July 1990 Llad Phillips Trough October 1949 May 1954 April 1958 February 1961 November 1970 March 1975 July 1980 November 1982 March 1991 Percent Decline in Real GDP 1.5 3.2 3.3 1.2 1.0 4.9 2.5 3.0 1.4 27 The Unemployment Rate During Recessions During periods of recession, marked by the shaded bars, unemployment rises sharply. Money, the Banking System and the Federal Reserve What is money? Llad Phillips 29 The Functions of Money medium of exchange instead of barter, i.e. exchange of goods & services for goods and services, we can exchange goods & services for money and vice versa eliminates the search costs & inconvenience of barter store of value we can hold money as an asset because it is a medium of exchange, it is liquid, i.e. we can convert money into goods & assets quickly unit of account measure of value, “ a dollar’s worth of ...” Llad Phillips 30 Definitions of Money M1(a measure of media of exchange) = currency held by the public, outside of banks checkable deposits demand deposits NOW (negotiable order of withdrawal) accounts • savings & loans, mutual savings banks traveler’s checks M2 = M1 + money market accounts at banks money market mutual fund accounts certificates of deposit, CD’s, less than $100,000 M3 = M2 + CD’s over $100,000 Llad Phillips 31 Summary of Monetary Policy Llad Phillips 32 The Federal Reserve System: Purposes & Functions http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/ Llad Phillips PDF format: Adobe Acrobat 33 The Federal Reserve System: Purposes & Functions Llad Phillips http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/ 34 PDF format: Adobe Acrobat How Effective Has the Fed Been? Fed Goals: A Stable Economy maximum employment stable prices moderate long-term interest rates Fed Objectives or Targets quantity of reserves price of reserves: Federal Funds Rate federal funds rate, FFR, is the interest rate banks charge one another for borrowing reserves for a day or so; mostly large urban banks borrowing from small suburban and rural banks Llad Phillips 35 Misery Index = Unemployment Rate + Inflation Rate Misery Index: 1929-1996 . 25 20 Index 15 10 5 Hoover Roosevelt Truman Ike Year 93 89 85 81 77 73 69 65 61 57 53 49 45 41 37 33 29 0 LBJ Nixon/ Reagan Bush JFK Clinton Ford Carter How Effective Has the Fed Been? Fed Objectives or Targets quantity of reserves price of reserves: Federal Funds Rate federal funds rate, FFR, is the interest rate banks charge one another for borrowing reserves for a day or so; mostly large urban banks borrowing from small suburban and rural banks Llad Phillips 37 Impact of the Supply of Reserves on the Federal Funds Rate FFR, price of reserves Demand for Reserves by Banks Supply of Reserves: Fed quantity of reserves Llad Phillips 38 Impact of the Supply of Reserves on the Federal Funds Rate FFR, price of reserves Demand for Reserves by Banks Supply of Reserves: Fed quantity of reserves Llad Phillips 39 Fed: Lender of Last Resort to Banks at Discount Rate, 00-02 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Llad Phillips 40 Nation’s Commercial Banks, 10/22/01 Assets $B Liabilities Com Loans 1050.1 Trans Dep 634.4 Pers Loans 559.1 Sav Dep 3530.2 Real Estate L 1723.3 Dep>$100K 970.2 Home Equity L 148.6 US Gov Sec 817.4 Other Sec 649.2 Total 4947.7 Bank Loans (credit) = $3928.8 B, WSJ 10/22/2001, p. C 2 Llad Phillips 41 What is at stake? US Postwar Expansions Trough - Peak Duration, Months Oct. ‘45 - Nov. ‘48 37 Oct. ‘49 - July ‘53 45 May ‘54 - Aug. ‘57 39 April ‘58 - April ‘60 24 Feb. ‘61 - Dec. ‘69 106 Nov. 70 - Nov. ‘73 36 March ‘75 - Jan. ‘80 58 July’80 - July ‘81 12 Nov. ‘82 - July ‘90 92 March ‘91 – April ‘01 121 Llad Phillips 42 Monetary Policy Tradeoff Is the Fed too Inflation Oriented? Note: the CPI inflation rate tends to decrease during and after recessions to control inflation, the Fed may be tempted into policies that precipitate recessions and/or make them more severe Note: the unemployment rate tends to increase during and after recessions some critics in Congress think the Fed is too restrictive, i.e. not sufficiently expansionary in policy Llad Phillips 45 Other Measures of Fed Effectiveness Reserve Aggregates Excess Reserves Free Reserves Llad Phillips 46 Definitions Total Bank Reserves = Vault Cash + Deposits with Fed + Loans from Fed Required Bank Reserves = Deposits x Required Reserve Ratio Excess Reserves = Total Reserves Required Reserves Llad Phillips 47 Consumers, Firms, Banks, and the Fed Determine Reserve Aggregates Banks Banks Fed Deposits with Fed Loans from Fed,(OMO) x + Bank Vault Cash Llad Phillips Fed Reserve ratios = = Total Reserves Consumers Businesses Bank Deposits - Required Reserves = Excess Reserves 48 Llad Phillips 49 Fed Sets Ratio of Minimum Bank Reserves to Bank Deposits Helps Prevent Liquidity Crises For Example: Dec 1999 deposits of 0-$44.3 M (small banks) required deposits minimum reserve ratio: 3% of $44.3 + M (large banks) required minimum reserve ratio: 10% Cutoff: $44.3 M as of 2000 Llad Phillips 50 Did the Fed Run too tight a monetary policy before 1980? Kept excess reserves too low in the banking system This forced banks to borrow reserves from the Fed at the discount window In the 1980’s and 1990’s, the Fed allowed more excess reserves, there was less borrowing at the discount window Much longer expansions ( boom times) resulted Llad Phillips 51 Fed Policy Record, 48.01-97.07 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 50 Source: Survey of Current Business, January, 1995 55 60 65 Fed Loans 70 75 80 85 90 Excess Reserves 95 Fed Monetary Policy: Insufficient Excess Reserves? Expansionary Policy ease credit provide positive free reserves Contractionary Policy tighten credit force banks to borrow at discount window, causing negative free reserves Llad Phillips 53 Bank Reserve Aggregates, 10-19-01 Total Reserves( cash in Bank Vaults & Deposits with Fed) Nonborrowed Reserves $44.1 B Required Reserves $43.0B Excess Reserves* $1.1 B Free Reserves** $1.0 B $44.0 B * Excess Reserves = Total Reserves - Required Reserves ** Free Reserves = Excess Reserves - Borrowed Reserves Source: The Wall Street Journal, 10/19/2001, p.C13 Llad Phillips 54 Before the 1980”s Did the Fed dry up “free reserves” too much with tight monetary policy? Free Reserves = Excess Reserves Borrowed reserves If banks are forced to the discount window, borrowed reserves may dominate excess reserves Llad Phillips 55 Fed Policy Record, 48.01-97.07 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 50 Source: Survey of Current Business, January, 1995 55 60 65 Fed Loans 70 75 80 85 90 Excess Reserves 95 Fed Policy: 48.01-97.07 2000 0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Free Reserves 85 90 95 Fed Loans of Reserves to Banks Before each recession, Fed loans peak and exceed excess reserves As a consequence, free reserves are negative before each recession recall: free reserves = excess reserves - Fed loans negative free reserves are called “net borrowed reserves” they are an index of the Fed trying to tighten credit evidently the Fed was tightening credit sufficiently to contribute to the recession Note: Fed keeps excess reserves low during inflationary 70’s; opposite policy in the 90’s Llad Phillips 58 Summary of Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Needs to Avoid Bank Panics and Bank Failure tool: FDIC tool: Bank Supervision & Education Federal Reserve Needs to Keep the Economy Healthy: Low Unemployment & Inflation Rates tool: Open Market Policy: Fed Sells Securities to Decrease Commercial Bank Deposits and Tighten Credit Llad Phillips 59 More Review Material Llad Phillips 60 Review: Lecture Nine Macroeconomic Policy fiscal Llad Phillips policy 61 Fiscal Policy Preventing Depressions role for autonomous federal spending: the federal government as spender of last resort Keynesian model Automatic Stabilizers in Federal Budget counter-cyclical progressive effect income tax Limit to Fiscal Policy from 1980 to 1998 the federal deficit federal government income-expense statement • surplus(deficit) = receipts - expenditures Llad Phillips 62 Less than Full Employment Equilibrium GDP= C+I+G Consumption, C Investment, I GDP GDP = C + I C = C0 + mpc* Y I 45 0 GDP = Y YFE Income, Y Full Employment Income Llad Phillips Source: Lecture Six 63 Less than Full Employment Equilibrium GDP= C+I+G Consumption, C Investment, I GDP GDP = C + I GDP+ C+I C = C0 + mpc* Y C= C0 +mpc*Y I I 45 0 GDP = Y YFE Income, Y Full Employment Income Llad Phillips Source: Lecture Six 64 Automatic Stabilizers Progressive Income Tax Rates as personal incomes rise many move to a higher tax bracket • disposable income does not grow as fast as income because income taxes take a larger bite as personal incomes fall many move to a lower tax bracket • taxes take a smaller fraction of income and dispoable income does not fall as fast as personal income Transfer Payments may grow in recession entitlement program payments unemployment insurance Aid to Families with Dependent Children(AFDC) Llad Phillips Social Security Pensions 65 Federal Surplus (Deficit) $ Millions 150000 100000 50000 Millions 0 1880 -50000 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 -100000 -150000 -200000 -250000 -300000 -350000 Fiscal Year Llad Phillips 66 Perspective:Is the economy growing less rapidly in the decade of the Nineties? Growth in real GDP over time Llad Phillips 67 Real GDP Billions 96$, 1929-1999 12000 10000 GDP 8000 Real GDP Billions 96$ exponential trendline 6000 4000 y = 8E-29e0.0369x R2 = 0.9767 2000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 year Llad Phillips 68 Midterm Review O’Sullivan and Sheffrin Ch. Llad Phillips 20, 21, 24, 25 , 27, 28, 30 69 20: The Big Ideas in Macro Circular Flow Labor Market Goods Market Measuring the Output of the Economy GDP National Income GDP: Is it a measure of welfare? Llad Phillips 70 Measuring a Nation’s Production and Income GDP: Expenditure Perspective Consumption Gross Private Investment Government Purchases Net Exports Llad Phillips 71 21: Unemployment and Inflation What is Unemployment Consumer Price Index (CPI) Percentage Rate of Change of CPI: Inflation Llad Phillips 72 Review Part II: Chapter Three Conceptual Framework: Circular Flow Firms Income Firms Labor Supply Goods Demand Goods Households Households Income Perspective Expenditure Perspective Llad Phillips 73 Expenditure Perspective: Open Firms Exports (Sales) Supply Goods Demand Goods Imports (puchases) Households Government Households: Consumption of Goods and Services Firms: Investment in Plant and Equipment Government: Purchase of Goods and Services All Three: Exports - Imports = Net Exports Llad Phillips 74 21: Behind the Economic Statistics Is a recession coming? how Llad Phillips would you figure that out? 75 21: Behind the Economic Statistics Expenditure Perspective: GDP Consumption Gross Private Investment Government Purchases Net Exports Inflation what is it? how do we measure it? why is it a problem? Llad Phillips 76 The Inflation Rate Since 1980 Source: http://www.yardeni.com Llad Phillips 77 21: Behind the Economic Statistics Expenditure Perspective: GDP Consumption Gross Private Investment Government Purchases Net Exports Inflation what is it? how do we measure it? why is it a problem? Unemployment Llad Phillips 78 Unemployed Persons, Millions, 1929-1997 . 14 1933 trough 1982 trough 12 1938 trough 1991 trough 8 6 4 2 1945 trough Year Llad Phillips 79 97 93 89 85 81 77 73 69 65 61 57 53 49 45 41 37 33 0 29 Millions 10 Unemployment Rate: unemployed/ (employed + unemployed) Unemployment Rate: unemployed/ (labor force) Llad Phillips 80 24: Coordinating Economic Activity If nominal GDP grows faster than real GDP, what happens? If real GDP stops growing or declines, what happens? Llad Phillips 81 25: Keynesian Economics and Fiscal Policy The Keynesian Cross The Basic Ideas GDP = National Income (equilibrium) equilibrium GDP can differ from full employment GDP What Should We Do IF We Slip Into Depression? Llad Phillips 82 Less than Full Employment Equilibrium Consumption, C GDP = C + I Investment, I GDP C = C0 + mpc* Y I 45 0 GDP = Y Llad Phillips Full Employment Income YFE Income, Y 83 1998 Midterm Part IV ( 28 points) Answer both essay questions. 1. One reason for the Great Depression was a sharp drop in consumer spending. a. Assuming the economy was initially at the full employment level of output, describe the effect of a drop in consumer spending. b. What was Keynes’ policy recommendation for escaping from the Great Depression? Llad Phillips 84 2. Opinions about the US economy have been quite changeable this Fall quarter. At the moment, the rate of growth of the economy is slowing, but growth is still positive. How would you satisfy yourself whether a recession might be coming or not? How would you assess whether the likelihood of a recession in 1999 is low? or high? a. What conceptual framework would you use to answer this question about a prospective recession? b. What data and which economic measures or statistics would you look at? c. How would you deal with the fact that you need a “crystal ball” to see into 1999 and the future? Llad Phillips 85 Part III (20 points) Answer both questions. 1. This is a Keynesian economics diagram of the determination of equilibrium GDP. Aggregate Expenditures 45 degrees Full Employment Income Aggregate Income Llad Phillips a. Label the aggregate expenditures line 86 b. Label the equilibrium condition line, for which aggregate expenditures equals aggregate income, i.e. GDP = Y. c. On this diagram, indicate the equilibrium level of aggregate income, Yeq . d. Is this equilibrium level of income higher or lower than the full employment level of income? ________________. e. Given your answer to part d, does this indicate a recession or an inflationary boom? ____________________. Llad Phillips 87 2. This diagram illustrates the market for reserves and the determination of the federal funds rate. This is the rate which commercial banks charge one another for borrowing, usually overnight. Federal Funds Rate Quantity of Reserves a. Label the demand curve for reserves. Llad Phillips 88 b. Which institution(s) demand(s) reserves?______________ c. Label the supply curve for reserves. d. Which institution(s) affect(s) the supply curve for reserves?_______________ e. If the Federal Reserve raises the ratio of required reserves to deposits, which curve will shift to the right, resulting in a _______________ federal funds rate? ____________.. Llad Phillips 89