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Introduction to Economics Macroeconomics The US Economy Llad Phillips 1 Outline: Lecture Seven Inflation Money Llad Phillips 2 8. Thursday, Oct. 22, Lecture Eight: "Inflation" Cost of living indices GDP deflator The impact of inflation on your personal wealth real rate of return on wealth real interest rate The cause of inflation the quantity theory of money Reading Assignment: O’Sullivan and Sheffrin, Ch. 30, “The Dynamics of Inflation and Unemployment” Problems O & S Text p. 623: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 Llad Phillips 3 Inflation Historical Cost of Living Consumer Price Index GDP Deflator Real GDP and Growth of the Economy Rate of Inflation Impact of Inflation on You Social Impact of Inflation Inflation Forecast Cause of Inflation Llad Phillips 4 Cost of Living Index, 1913=100, Massachusetts: Jan. 1910 - Dec. 1943 225 200 175 150 weights: food: 37.6% clothing: 12.8% shelter: 21.8% fuel & light: 5.0% sundries: 22.8% 125 100 75 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 Year cost of living index, Massachusetts 42 Historical Cost of Living: Mass. World War I & aftermath: inflation rapid increases in 1917, 1918; peak in 1920 twenties: price stability early thirties: deflation World War II: inflation Llad Phillips 6 Consumer Price Index: CPI prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, US Dept. of Labor, USDOL 1982-84=100 weights for urban consumers, 10,000 families in the survey housing = 42.6% transportation = 18.7% food & beverages = 17.8% apparel & upkeep = 6.5% other goods & services = 5.1% medical care = 4.8% Llad Phillips entertainment = 4.4% 7 CPI: Consumer Price Index Rate of Inflation For example, the annual rate: [P(t) - P(t-1)]/P(t-1) = ∆P(t)/P(t-1) [CPI(1997) Llad Phillips - CPI(1996)]/CPI(1996) 9 Source: Yardeni’s Economics Network, http://www.yardeni.com/ Llad Phillips 10 Inflation Rate: CPI Llad Phillips 11 GDP Deflator Nominal Value $ = Price * Quantity Nominal GDP = GDP Deflator * Real GDP Nominal GDP/Real GDP = GDP Deflator Real GDP = Nominal GDP/GDP Deflator Llad Phillips 12 GDP Deflator, 1992=100 . 120 100 60 40 20 Year Llad Phillips 13 97 93 89 85 81 77 73 69 65 61 57 53 49 45 41 37 33 0 29 Index 80 GDP Deflator, 1992=100, Proportional Scale . 1000 Index 100 10 Year Llad Phillips 14 97 93 89 85 81 77 73 69 65 61 57 53 49 45 41 37 33 29 1 GDP Deflator: History early thirties: deflation World War II: inflation Korean War: inflation fifties and sixties: price stability Vietnam War: inflation Lyndon seventies: inflation OPEC: Johnson: “guns and butter” energy prices nineties: price stability Llad Phillips 15 Is the economy growing less rapidly? Growth in real GDP over time Llad Phillips 16 Growth of Real GDP, 1929-1997 . 9000 8000 7000 REAL GDP Exponential Trend Billions 6000 5000 4000 3000 y = 247.07e 0.0364x R2 = 0.9717 2000 1000 0 20 Llad Phillips 40 60 Year 80 100 17 The Impact of Inflation The impact of inflation on personal wealth Is your wealth growing as fast as the inflation rate? Are you preserving purchasing power? ∆w/w = r + s/w recall, your rate of growth of wealth, ∆w/w, equals your rate of return on wealth, r, plus the ratio of savings to wealth, s/w If the inflation rate, ∆p/p, is 3% per year, and your wealth is growing at 3% per year, then you are just treading water. Llad Phillips 18 Inflation can make your personal investment decision more difficult inflation adds to uncertainty about the future, and about rates of return inflation is an argument for investing in stocks, and sometimes real estate and tangible personal property such as art, jewelry, gold hedge Llad Phillips against inflation 19 Concepts: real rate of return; real rate of interest real rate of return plus the expected rate of inflation equals the nominal rate of return rR(t) + E[∆p(t)/p(t)] = r(t) in 1997, E[∆p(t)/p(t)] = 3 % rR(t) + 3% = r(t), your nominal rate of return Llad Phillips 20 Real Rate of Interest real rate of interest plus the expected rate of inflation equals the nominal rate of interest iR(t) + E[∆p(t)/p(t)] = i(t) increased inflation will cause nominal interest rates to rise this is the reason inflation spooks bond prices Llad Phillips 21 Bond Prices move inversely with the interest rate Consols: pay a constant net return, or interest, indefinitely into the future interest = rate*principal or: net return = interest rate*bond price if the interest rate goes up, then the bond price goes down Llad Phillips 22 Bond Prices (continued) Recall, present value equals the discounted stream of future earnings PV(t)consol = NR(t) +NR(t+1)/(1+i) + NR(t+2)/(1+i)2 + NR(t)consol = NR(t) = NR(t+1) = NR(t+2) = ... PV(t)consol = NR(t)consol[1 + 1/(1+i) + 1/(1+i)2 +...] PV(t)consol NR(t)consol/i Llad Phillips 23 http://www.phil.frb.org/ Economics/Survey of Professional Forecasters August 21, 1988 98 Q3 98 Q4 99 Q1 99 Q2 99 Q3 GDP 112.57 112.90 113.39 113.92 115.20 Deflator % In- 1.2 crease Deflator Llad Phillips 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 24 Inflation hurts groups of people hurts people on fixed income elderly hurts creditors people who loan money they get paid back in dollars with less purchasing power Llad Phillips 25 Inflation helps some groups debtors people who borrow money they get to pay back with less valuable dollars incentive to buy real estate on time during inflation big debtor: government consequently, government may have an incentive to follow inflationary policies Llad Phillips 26 Inflation can waste resources people spend time looking for stores of value, rather than producing goods and services money becomes a bad store of value: it loses purchasing power people buy gold, jewelry, art, real estate, consumer durables Llad Phillips 27 The Price of Gold Llad Phillips 28 Source: Yardeni’s Economics Network, http://www.yardeni.com/ Llad Phillips 29 Inflation watch Investors month watch to month changes in consumer price index producer price index statements by the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan Federal Reserve Open Market Committee purchases or sales of government securities: impact on federal funds rate price Llad Phillips of gold 30 What is the cause of inflation? Too much money chasing too few goods Quantity theory of money stock*velocity price*quantity M1*velocity GDP Deflator*Real GDP M1*velocity Nominal GDP velocity Nominal GDP/M1 money M1: currency in the hands of the public + checkable deposits + travelers checks Llad Phillips 31 Cause of Inflation (continued) If velocity is constant, and M1 grows faster than Real GDP, then the GDP Deflator increases: inflation Llad Phillips 32 Monetarist Policy Prescription A constant rate of growth of money, say 3.65 % since Real GDP grew at 3.65% between 1929 and 1996, no pressure on prices, no inflation consumers and businesses can form more accurate expectations about inflation since growth in the money stock is constant avoids timing and analysis errors in monetary policy that might make the business cycle worse, instead of better Llad Phillips 33 Money Functions Definitions Reasons to hold Llad Phillips 34 The Functions of Money medium of exchange instead of barter, i.e. exchange of goods & services for goods and services, we can exchange goods & services for money and vice versa eliminates the search costs & inconvenience of barter store of value we can hold money as an asset because it is a medium of exchange, it is liquid, i.e. we can convert money into goods & assets quickly unit of account measure of value, “ a dollar’s worth of ...” Llad Phillips 35 Definitions of Money M1(a measure of media of exchange) = currency held by the public, outside of banks checkable deposits demand deposits NOW (negotiable order of withdrawal) accounts • savings & loans, mutual savings banks traveler’s checks M2 = M1 + money market accounts at banks money market mutual fund accounts certificates of deposit, CD’s, less than $100,000 M3 = M2 + CD’s over $100,000 Llad Phillips 36 M1, Source: Yardeni’s Economics Network Llad Phillips 37 Source: Yardeni’s Economics Network Llad Phillips 38 Reasons for Holding Money Convenient for paying bills transaction flexible, demand for cash balances liquid asset precautionary keep motive cash on hand for unexpected expenses speculative motive for example, convert cash to stocks if the Dow tumbles Llad Phillips 39 Opportunity Cost of Holding Money: Foregone Interest interest rate Demand for Money quantity of money Llad Phillips 40 Impact of the Money Stock on Interest Rates interest rate Demand for Money Stock of Money, M1 M1 Llad Phillips quantity of money 41 Summary-Vocabulary-Concepts cost of living index base year deflation inflation consumer price index price weights budget shares rate of inflation GDP Deflator purchasing power hedge against inflation real rate of return Llad Phillips real rate of interest consol creditor debtor money stock; M1,M2 Quantity Theory of Money velocity of money functions of money money demand transactions precautions speculations 42