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INTERNATIONAL TRADE Trade Insights Trade=exchanging one thing for another. Usually goods or services for $$. The economics profession nearly unanimously backs free trade. Question: Are trade deficits a signal that the U.S. cannot compete in the global marketplace? Is Outsourcing Good? Answer – No and Yes respectively. Low wages are not a reliable measure of global competitiveness. Competition regardless of where it takes place, has to produce MORE OUTPUT for a given quantity of INPUTS. *****A worker’s contribution to the production process is measured by MPP. A worker’s MPP depends on the quantity and quality of other resources in the production process plus the worker’s educational skills and skilllevel. The Economy Tomorrow • Global competitiveness usually depends on the costs of production. – Lower-cost production allows a firm to compete more effectively in global markets. • Cheap foreign labor? – A lower wage does not mean lower labor costs. – Lower wages usually are paid to those with lower productivity (output per hour), and vice versa. – Unit labor cost (wage divided by output per hour) is the true measure of labor cost. 21-4 Checking unit labor cost Unit Labor cost = wage rate MPP America: Unit Labor Cost = $12.00 per hour 6 units per hour = $2/unit of output Mexico: Unit Labor Cost = $3.00 per hour 1 unit/hr = $3/unit of output The U.S. still produces more/hour than other economies Incentive is ? Real World Labor Cost/wage rate • Low wage rate does not always indicate lower unit output cost. • *Service jobs are an exception if education is comparable.…China has lower wage rate…so should HP produce printers there? Hilton Honors…Apple sent Iphones out for production!! Profit for Apple Iphone (over 50%) • Mexican labor in the previous example would be more costly to use even though the wage rate is lower. What is most expensive part of production? http://www.chinaoutsourcing.com/ So why wouldn’t businesses seek cheaper labor market if they can? The Economy Tomorrow • Productivity advances and lower costs of production will allow: – produce more goods and services with available resources. (expand resources) – Improve competitiveness in global markets. – Shift the production function up and push cost curves down. • U.S. productivity must continue to advance at a brisk pace if we want to stay competitive in the economy tomorrow. 21-8 Why do businesses operate? They don’t go into business to engage in competition! Profit! Japan – supply chain halt result earthquake Think of the many products in the U.S. that are dependent on parts and products from Japan. Best Countries For Outsourcing India | Philippines | Russia | China | Canada | Mexico |Ireland Bottom Line Productive Statement • Productivity in any economy means staying competitive in the global markets and “making more things” than others. So…………. If economists agree that Free Trade is a good thing….. Why all the fuss politically and internally about 1) jobs fleeing the country\ 2) unfair advantages for subsidies/ 3) what is insourcing? Why does International Trade Exist? Because countries that trade are both better off. “No nation was every ruined by trade.” Benjamin Franklin Terms of Trade = how much of one thing for how much of something else. Transaction costs = costs of time/effort to negotiate or work out deals. Absolute Advantage = Comparison of production costs of two countries. Comparative Advantage = Output is greatest when each product is made by the country with the lowest opportunity cost. What is Exchange? = giving up one thing for another. Dick and Jane can both build boats Both can build boats/cars Dick can build more cars in less time than Jane Jane can build more boats than Dick Dick builds cars- Jane builds boats… They trade freely and both are better off. Process = which has lowest opportunity cost… each gains more than initial individual effort. Comparative Advantage Two countries can both produce two goods. Each one can produce one of goods cheaper than the other. They produce at their lower opportunity cost – and trade freely. “The ability of a country to produce a specific good at a lower opportunity cost than its trading partners.” David Ricardo, English Economists in 1800s developed this theory. What to Trade? Countries specialize in the production of the good in which they have a comparative advantage. The situation when a country can produce a good at lower opportunity cost than another country can. For a tutorial on specialization and trade click the flags Terms of trade are crucial EX ANTE……………. “BEFORE” POST ANTE………. “AFTER” Ex Ante Elizabeth and Brian Before the Trade Elizabeth decides to produce 20 loaves bread Brian decides to produce 30 apples Terms of trade = Elizabeth trades 8 loaves for Brian’s 12 apples Ex Post Remember terms of trade 8 loaves for 12 apples…. Elizabeth now consumes 12 loaves bread and 12 apples Brian consumes 8 loves of bread and 18 apples Clearly both are better off… See first column above! Trade works…. But free trade works great. International Trade Major U.S. exports include automobiles, computers, aircraft, corn, wheat, soybeans, scientific instruments, coal, and plastic materials. Major imports include petroleum, automobiles, clothing, iron and steel, office machines, footwear, fish, coffee, and diamonds. Distributional Effects and Trade Restrictions The benefits of international trade are not equally distributed to all individuals in the population. Benefit occurs on net (gains minus losses). Every individual person may not gain, in fact some may lose. Unfavorable distributional effects may lead to trade restrictions such as: Tariff - A tax on imports. Quota - A legal limit on the amount of a good that may be imported. Consumers’ Surplus As the shaded area indicates, the difference between the maximum or highest amount consumers would be willing to pay and the price they actually pay is consumers’ surplus. Producers’ Surplus As the shaded area indicates, the difference between the price sellers receive for the good and the minimum or lowest price they would be willing to sell the good for is producers’ surplus. Why Restrict Trade? National–Defense Argument – certain industries are necessary to the national defense. Infant-Industry Argument – new industries often need protection from older, established foreign firms. Antidumping Argument – foreign competitors will sell goods at below cost of production so as to penetrate markets Low-Foreign-Wage Argument- Domestic producers pay high wages to their workers and foreign producers pay low wages to their workers Saving-Domestic-Jobs Argument – Foreign producers displace domestic workers. GEOPOLITICAL ECONOMIC WORLD Why does the U.S. have to worry about the global economy? Why can’t we just produce for ourselves and forget the rest of the world? What really is trade? • If I write a book and use my income to buy a car made in Detroit, no one will question this transaction. I’m better off and the car manufacturer is better off. • Two areas: (1) modern economy is built on trade, (2) we pay people to do things we don’t want to do.. Like buying coffee at Starbucks, getting our oil changed, painting our house, Why Trade??? Think about your life without trade: 1. You wake up early in small,drafty house that you built yourself. 2. Put on your clothes that you wove yourself from shearing the sheep in your yard. 3. Pluck a few coffee beans off a tree that does not grow well in Wisconsin all the while hoping that your hen laid at least one egg overnight. OUR STANDARD OF LIVING IS HIGH BECAUSE WE ARE ABLE TO FOCUS ON WHAT WE DO BEST AND TRADE FOR THE REST! The U.S., when established, set up one very large trade zone… freely trading with other states. When countries trade among themselves, the result can be beneficial.… word “freely” is the culprit. Bottom Line for Trade 1. Productivity is what makes us rich. 2. Specialization is what makes us productive. 3. Trade allows us to specialize Trade Creates Losers Any discussion of globalization immediately brings up “loss of jobs.” Dallas has experienced some heavy blows in this arena. It’s hard to explain to the Levi workers in south Texas or elsewhere why they have no employment, but that Indonesia has all the work it can handle from Levi. Trade, like technology, CAN DESTROY jobs, particularly low-skilled jobs. What is the objective for every firm? PROFIT MAXIMIZING. The key question again rolls back to productivity. If the worker in Bangladesh is “relatively” productive for a less costly labor rate, then the firm will do a CBA (cost benefit analysis). If the firm is receiving negative Customer Service replies (Dell, outsourcing of tech support), they may decided to pull labor for that service back into the U.S. Comparative Costs Specialization yields more efficiency in production. Specialization and trade are mutually beneficial or “profitable” to the two nations IF the comparative costs of producing the two products within the nations differ 4 Ways government commonly interferes with trade 1. Protective tariffs. (are excise taxes or duties placed on imported goods)… Purpose. To “protect” shield domestic producers from foreign competition What about “protecting” our U.S. jobs? PROTECTIONISM SAVES JOBS IN THE SHORT RUN…. AND SLOWS ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE LONG RUN…. (RETALIATION CAN BE EXPECTED) See Smoot-Hawley Tariff Lowering trade barriers has the same impact on consumers as cutting taxes (Wright Amendment is protectionism-which I am happy to report was repealed by Congress 9/30/06) 2. Import Quotas…. A limit on the amount of any specified good that can enter the country over a fixed period. (example: Only X # of bottles of Cognac can be imported) 3. Nontariff barriers (Just a way around allowing imports into the country by establishing standards that could not be complied with and yards of red tape to hassle with)… Countries will just forget trading with that country and go someplace else to trade. 4. Export Subsidies Government pays (subsidies- gives dollars to) domestic producers of export goods. This reduces their production costs, lowers their taxes and allows producers to charge lower prices and sell more exports. Legislation (Oct 2004) ceased most of this arrangement with Am companies… WTO sanctioned American trade for unfair subsidies, and Congress finally had to comply. A word about rate of currency exchange The U.S. Dollar most widely accepted for of currency in the world Fluctuation of dollar replicates the fluctuation of the supply and demand for the currency. Dollar in relation to Yen, Euro, etc is calculated for international trade As importer – if dollar is down – have to pay more for goods coming into U.S. to sell As exporter – if dollar down – country receiving goods pays less for American goods. More words for exchange If you are selling jeans to Germany, there are two ways to consummate the sale. 1) Spot transaction – have to quote a price in either dollars and euros. A price is agreed to – but exchange rate might change before deal is completed. Either party may profit or lose since it is a floating rate. Words continued 2.) Second way to complete the exchange of jeans to Germany. Just wait until ready to ship and purchase the Euros needed to pay the company receiving the goods. Buyer and seller have to agree which currency they want to pay and receive. Exchange banks open 24 hours – 5 days a week. Many people speculate and invest in currency to gain financial profit for the trade. Currency Converter “No nation was ever ruined by trade.” Benjamin Franklin * Sometime in your life, read the “Petition of the Candlemakers 1845 …” by Bastiat