Download Diapositiva 1 - the United Nations

Climate Change; a Latin
American and Caribbean
Perspective.
Joseluis Samaniego
Chief Sustainable Development
Division
UN Economic Commission for LAC
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Characteristics of LAC
• No decoupling (in general) between growth and
emissions.
• “Sinks” are a source (ag., cattle,).
• Very vulnerable to natural disasters.
• most of the population (75 %) is urbanized
(therefore popular housing, waste, wastewater,
air quality and transport are of high concern).
• Good institutions, including development
financial institutions: BNDES, NAFIN, CAF,
BCIE,CORFO, etc.
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Emissions Intensities
per GDP (red) and per
capita (blue).
Energy Intentsity:
barrels of oil/US of
2000.
.
Total consumption of energy (in thousands of barrels of oil
equivalent) for each million dollars of GDP (in constant 2000
prices)
SENDERO DE EMISIONES
(Kg. CO2/ US$ a precios de 2000; Kg. CO2 /Hab.)
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
energy intensity
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
k barrels/k GDP
1.9
years
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LAC’s emissions
(per supply unit of primary energy).
EM ISIONES DE CO2 POR UNIDAD DE OFERTA TOTAL DE ENERGIA PRIM ARIA
2.8
2.6
2.4
(t CO2/ TEP)
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
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World
OECD
Middle East
Former URSS
Non-OECD Europe
China
Asia
Latin America
Af rica
LAC’s emmissions per capita.
12
10
(t CO2/Hab.)
8
6
4
2
0
World
OECD
Middle East
Former URSS
Non-OECD Europe
China
A sia
Source: ECLAC with IEA Key World Energy Statistics, 2006.
Latin A merica
A f rica
4
Giga tonnes of CO2 eq.
Non Anex I GHG emissions by Regions according to their
inventories for 1994
10
8
6
Energy
4
LULUCF
2
Total
0
-2
Africa
Asia and the Pacific Latin America and
the Caribbean
Evolution of Hydro-Meteorologic Disasters in the
LAC Region
Number of events
500
400
Centra Americal
300
Sud Americar
200
The Caribbean
Total
100
5
0
80-89
90-99
00-07
Changes in land-use have continued:
1990-2005
• Forest cover is down by 68,7 millon hectares
• Agriculture is up by 26,5 millon has: of which, 13,8
million are permanent pastures and 12,7 million is arable
lands and 42,2 million are temporary grasslands.
• Cattle grew by 68,1 million
• Soja grew by 22,4 million hectares
Source: FAO 2007.
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Land Use Change in LAC
A.LATINA Y CARIBE: CAMBIOS EN EL USO DEL SUELO
Miles de hectáreas
1200000
Bosques
1000000
800000
Area agrícola
600000
400000
Praderas y pastos
permanentes
200000
ALC: tierras arables y
cultivos permanentes
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: FAO 2007
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Forest loss is twice as fast than in the rest of
the World
Surface (1000
hectares)
Annual Change Change (%)
(1000 Hectares)
1990
2005
1990-2005
1990-2005
Caribbean
5.350
5.974
624
0.74
México
69.016
64.238
-4.778
-0.48
Centralam.
27.639
22.411
-5.228
-1.39
Southam.
890.818
831.540
-59.278
-0.46
LAC
992.823
924.163
-68.660
-0.48
-3.682.066
-0.21
World
4.077.291 3.952.025
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What do broad development-climate change
related LAC priorities seem to be?
• Energy security:
– Reducing demand through energy efficiency in electricity consumption
and in liquid fuels use (vehicles).
– Securing supply (gas and hidro may grow very slowly vis a vis other
sources. Somer renewables).
• Protecting the forests: REDD (incentives to arrest land use change)
• Agricultural production: Reduce soils degradation.
• Urban environmental quality: Improved sanitation services; water
treatment (MDGs) and landfills to recover methane.
• Economic security: Estimating the economic impacts of climate
change ranging from the primary sector to public finance.
• Socio-economic security: Preparing for more extreme weather
events.
• Scaling up to “programs” involving national and reginal financial
institutions.
• Regional coordination to protect competitiveness while making
progress on environmental issues (investment criteria, efficiency
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standards, etc.)
Where LAC could benefit more
from the CC process.
• Making make progres in
–
–
–
–
–
Rewarding net cleaner fuels like ethanol
Incentivizing forest and soils conservation
Rewarding the reorganization of mass transit systems
Support financially important national shifs in policies.
Enhancing carbon markets for a more meaningful
contribution of the region to global efforts .
– Facilitating access to better energy technologies (IPR,
prices, funding mechanisms, etc.)
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ECLAC’s work for 2008-2009
• Support REDD:
– research (opportunity costs, activity change),
– regional and extrarregional meetings.
• Support valuation of economic Impacts of CC (Mexico,
Central America: income and fiscal implications).
• Exploration of mitigation “Programs” (partners: Milan,
Energeias, BMZ-GTZ) :
– Urban: methane recovery,
– Rural: cogeneration in sugar mills.
• Facilitate regional disscussions (further steps like Bali
POA and Club de Madrid doc.)
• Discuss on Market Mecanisms Evolution (expanding
scopes).
• Asess energy trends.
• Carry out disaster valuation.
• Study trade and CC relations.
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Thank you for your attention.
[email protected]
Chief. Sust. Dev. Division
Economic Commission for LAC
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