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Session 1: Economic Outlook A Presentation by George G. Wisner Executive Director National Investment Commission Republic of Liberia Liberia Real GDP Growth Rate (2006-2017; IMF Forecast from 2015) Pre-Ebola Forecast World Bank 2015 GDP Growth Forecast 3.0% AfDB 2015 GDP Growth Forecast 3.8% 2 Fiscal restrictions imposed to manage impact of increased expenditure Stabilized the exchange rate, enhanced banking sector liquidity Paid civil servant salaries on time; accelerated goods & service spending Avoided shortage of essential commodities Over $58 million disbursed to public investment and recovery in 14/15 Reopened borders and lobbied for return of flights Immediate cash transfers with the support of our Development Partners Revised projections for 2015 GDP Growth are 0.9% (IMF) – 3.0 % (World Bank) Strategy 1: Recovering Output & Growth Strategy 2: Strengthening Resilience and Reducing Vulnerability Strategy 3: Strengthening Public Finances and Ensuring Service Delivery Revitalize and diversify growth, targeting agribusiness export sectors - Major Health Investment Plan - Education sector priorities - WASH services - Social protection - GoL plan for UNMIL transition Support for public finances, improved finance execution and governance including deconcentration Enable delivery of critical transport and energy infrastructure projects 4 Strategy 1: Recovering Output & Growth Revitalize and diversify growth, and address vulnerable employment Target Agro-processing in key sectors Increase private sector finance for agribusinesses and farmers Value chain coordination: cocoa, rubber, oil palm, fish/aqua. Enable delivery of critical infrastructure projects Targeted investment in these value chains & agro-processing Labor and supplier skills aligned to growth sectors Financed cost overruns from Ebola on Priority Infrastructure Projects (e.g. Mt Coffee Hydro Dam) Road Maintenance Fund, Low-income housing 5 Strategy 1: Recovering Output & Growth Strategy 2: Strengthening Resilience and Reducing Vulnerability Health Investment Plan: to improve and extend existing infrastructure and build fit for purpose Healthand workforce, Revitalize diversifyincluding growth, private investment in JFK Hospital & Redemption Hospital - Major Health Investment and address vulnerable Education: train and recruit teachers, Plan improve quality of vocational education, strengthen county employment management structures, including private investment in affordable high quality education services - Education sector priorities - WASH services Enable delivery of critical Increase WASH services for Ebola recovery and prevention including 100 boreholes into Social protection infrastructure projects communities, health centres and -schools, and a WASH regional centre - GoL plan for UNMIL Increase coverage of social cashtransition transfers to at least 50,000 households, sustain foster care grant and develop National Emergency Response Capability Security: implement GoL Plan for UNMIL Transition 6 Strategy 1: Recovering Output & Growth Strategy 2: Strengthening Resilience and Reducing Vulnerability Government revenues suffered twin shock of Ebola crisis and globaland commodity Revitalize diversifyprices growth, - Major Health Investment and address vulnerable Improving expenditure compliance processes and Budget Plan employment execution - Education sector priorities - WASH services Enable delivery of critical Ongoing Civil service reform and Decentralization - Social protection infrastructure projects - GoL plan for UNMIL transition Strategy 3: Strengthening Public Finances and Ensuring Service Delivery Support for public finances, improved finance execution and governance including deconcentration 7 Liberia’s Profit Tax Rate is 25% or 2% on turnover. No capital controls 30% incentive deduction allowed on up to 100% of qualifying cost of equipment & machinery for investors over $1m Can also obtain a tax deduction of 10% off cost of building & fixtures used in manufacturing process that produced finished products having 60% local raw material. Investments exceeding $10m automatically incentivized Investments in economically deprived zones or those generating more than 100 direct jobs qualify for additional incentives of up to 12.5% & further 10% respectively Incentives available for: Tourism, Manufacturing, Energy, Hospitals & clinics; Housing, Transportation; IT, Banking, Agriculture, Fisheries, Agro-Processing Liberia Business Registry (LBR) One-Stop-Shop for enterprise development that formalizes enterprises in only 48 hours ◦ Online application process and online database ◦ Registration can be done through: E-registration: after receiving account details applicant submits dossier online. Assisted registration: applicants submit a paper-based dossier to the LBR staff who undertakes the registration procedures. Staff are on hand to provide advice to applicants. Table 1: Ease of Starting a Business Indicator Table 2: Fees to Register a Business Indicator Liberia Sub-Saharan Africa OECD Category Foreign Business Registration Procedures (number) 4 7.8 4.8 Sole Proprietorship $700 US Time (days) 4.5 27.9 9.2 Partnership $800 US 56.2 3.4 Corporation $900 US Cost (% of income 17.4 per capita) Source: www.lbr.gov.lr Source: World Bank Doing Business 2015 Thank you! George W. Wisner [email protected]