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Muslim Radicalism in Pakistan
and Afghanistan
Juan Cole
www.juancole.com
Afghanistan
Ethnic
Groups
• Pushtuns in
South
• Hazaras in
Center
• Tajiks in
northeast,
northwest
• Uzbeks in
North
Afghanistan
• Pop. 24 mn.
• Literacy 36 %
• 30% of 7,000 schools destroyed under
Taliban
• GDP $5 bn.; per capita $208 (among
poorest in world)
• Life expectancy: 43
Rise of Taliban
Pakistan backs seminary
students from early 90s
“Taliban”
Trained by Northwest
Frontier Constabulary
Then Inter-Services
Intelligence
After Taliban
• Tajik Northern
Alliance dominates
government
• President Karzai (a
Pushtun) is weak
• Little investment by
US, int’l community
• Provinces fall into
hands of warlords
US, NATO
• 9,000 US troops still
engaged in search and
destroy
• 2003 August – ISAF in
Kabul taken over by
NATO.
• ISAF beginning to
branch out
Taliban Commanders
• Former Taliban commanders
• Saifur Rahman commanded
Taliban against Operation
Anaconda spring 2002
• In east, the Taliban's former
deputy prime minister,
Mullah Kabir, is supreme
commander
• Works with with activists of
the Hizb-i Islami. Ties to
Inter-Services Intelligence in
Pakistan
Resurgence of Taliban
• 2003 June – 49 killed in
clashes between Taliban
fighters and government
troops in Kandahar.
• Tie between terrorists, drug
running
– 200,000 acres under poppy
cultivation despite ban
– 40% of economy comes from
opium ($2 bn.)
Taliban Attacks
• Force of 2500 Taliban
hiding out just over border
in Pakistan
• 13 aid workers killed in
Afghanistan in 2003
• 9 already gunned down in
second half of February
• Including bombings,
assassinations of UN
personnel
Constitution & Elections
• 2004 January - Grand assembly - or Loya Jirga adopts new constitution. President is stronger than
Pushtun warlords and Islamists had wanted.
• Islam as religion of state.
• Question of whether elections can be held
Pakistan
• 4 Provinces and
Kashmir
• Punjab
• Sind
• Baluchistan
• NWFP
(Pushtuns)
• Azad Kashmir
Pakistan Challenges
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Pop. of 145 mn. Growing 2.1% per annum
Low literacy 45%
Poor school system; madrasahs substitute
Still predominantly rural, poor
Few signs of India-style globalization
Light textiles important, disrupted by recent wars
Militant Muslim groups grew up during antiSoviet war, Kashmir
Musharraf
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Secular minded
Hawk on Kashmir
1999 coup
Turns on Taliban Sept. 2001
• Phony referendum May 2002
• Attempt to sideline major
parties Oct. 2002 backfires
• Islamists do well, hang
parliament
Pakistanis Largely not Islamists
• Cautions:
– Most Pakistanis are not interested in political
Islam
– Strong influence of Sufi mysticism,
traditionalism in countryside
– Pakistan People’s Party relatively secular
– Even Muslim League more for big landlords
than for Islamism
– 1971-2001 Islamist parties never get more than
3% of vote in national elections
Pakistan’s Interest in Afghanistan
• Instability
blocks
Turkmenistan
gas pipeline
• Central Asian
trade
Kashmir
• Jihadi groups trained
in Afghanistan
• Could hit India in
Kashmir
• Which Pakistan claims
Muslim Political Parties
• MMA main groups:
– Jama`at-i Islami
– Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam
[JUI] (Deobandi)
– Jamiat Ulema-ePakistan [JUP]
Jama`at-i Islami
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Fundamentalist
Initially anti-democratic
Cadre organization
Qazi Hussain Ahmad
Does well in elections for
first time in Oct. 2002
• Demands return to 1973
constitution
• Musharraf must take off
uniform
• Denies existence of alQaeda, demands end to
manhunt
Jamiat Ulama-i Islam
• Radical clerics
• Madrasahs trained
Taliban
• Leader Fazlur Rahman
• Opposes US
• Wants manhunt for alQaeda stopped
Radical Jihadi Groups
• Militant Organizatons
– The Army of the Pious
– The Army of Muhammad
– Soldiers of the
Companions
• Anti-Shiite; close to alQaeda
– Movement for the
Imposition of Shiite Law
Army of the Pious (Lashkar-i Taibah)
• Rooted in Markaz-ud-Dawa-wal-Irshad
(MDI), fundamentalist organization.
• Had recruited anti-Soviet fighters in 80s
• 1990 forms LT
• 1993 enters Kashmir
• Fighters trained in madrasahs
• Suspected in Delhi Parliament attack
Dec. 2001
• Banned Jan. 2002
• Leader Hafiz Md. Saeed
• Regroups, MDI separates activities in
Pakistan from LT in Kashmir
• LT now underground
• Seeks Central Asian pan-Islam
Jaish Muhammad
• The Army of Muhammad
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Founded 2000
By Masood Azhar
active in Kashmir
Funded by Bin Laden
13 Dec. 2001 Delhi
parliament attack
– Banned Jan. 2002
– Dec. 2003 assassination
attempt on Musharraf
Army of the Companions
• Sipah-i Sahabah
• Emerges in Jhang area of
Panjab mid-80s
• Violently anti-Shiite
• Assassinations of Shiites,
Christians
• Trained in Afghanistan with
Taliban
• Headed by Azam Tariq until
his assassination Oct. 2003
• Was elected from Jhang to
parliament
Pakistani Army and AQ Khan
• Much smuggling of nuclear
secrets happened 1989-91
• Under Mirza Aslam Beg, Chief
of Staff
• (Beg denies being in charge of
nuclear program)
• Khan is an Islamic Nationalist
who believes it is hypocritical
for US to support Israel’s bomb
• ISI links to Islamists a worry; 3year rotations