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Fiscal Policy How can gov’t changes in taxes or expenditure influence AD? What is the difference between expansionary and contractionary fiscal policy? How does fiscal policy influence both demand- and supply-side models? Definition, major points • Fiscal policy—government changes to its own expenditures and taxes to influence the level of aggregate demand – Purposeful, so it is discretionary policy • Components of AD: C+I+G+(X-M) – Fiscal policy can affect the first three: – G: through making changes in politics – I: gov’t changes taxes on business profits – C: gov’t changes income tax, which influences level of disposable income Demand-side focus At any given PL: • An increase in gov’t spending or in transfer payments: increases real GDP • An increase in taxes decreases real GDP Automatic stabilizers are enhanced by discretionary fiscal policy Where did it come from? • Fiscal policy was the brain child of economist John Maynard Keynes during the 1930s in an attempt to understand the Great Depression • Keynes advocated increased government expenditures and lower taxes to stimulate demand and pull the global economy out of the Depression. – concept that optimal economic performance could be achieved by influencing aggregate demand through activist stabilization and economic intervention policies by the government (FISCAL POLICY) • Three tools: – Taxes, gov’t spending, transfer payments – Keynesian economics is considered to be a “demand-side” theory that focuses on changes in the economy over the short run. Closing a contractionary gap • When the economy is in contraction or recession, the government will typically use expansionary fiscal policy to “expand” the economy • The government will increase spending and/or lower taxes, which has the effect of: – Increasing GDP (increased AD) – Lowering unemployment – Increasing disposable income/consumption when taxes are adjusted downward This will push the AD curve to the right by doing the following: Decreasing taxes (more consumption) Increasing transfer payments (more money in peoples’ pockets) Increasing gov’t spending on social programs/military Closing an inflationary gap • When the economy is “overheating”, or is an expansion which results in high prices, the gov’t will use contractionary fiscal policy to “contract” the economy • The government will decrease spending and/or increase taxes, which has the effect of: – Decreased AD, fall in real GDP – Could potentially increase unemployment – Taxes increased on firms and/or consumers Remember that fiscal policy is a tool to help stabilize prices and control unemployment. Since unemployment is linked to GDP, it’s possible that when the gov’t enacts contractionary policy to decrease AD, that unemployment grows. However, this is better than hyperinflation. The multiplier effect (HL) • Congress must be careful with the amount of taxes/spending adjusted, as it could create a multiplying (“snowball”) effect: – If the gov’t puts $10 billion into the economy, that money will affect GDP more than $10 bill. It may affect by $10.5 or even $12 billion, depending on responsiveness of economy to fiscal policy • Difficult to estimate; Effects of fiscal policy always multiply, which can cause Congress to stimulate the economy too much, causing high inflation What happens when there is too much economic stimulation? • Inaccurate estimations of potential output or natural rate of unemployment can cause an over-stimulation of the economy • This can cause AD to extend past potential output and cause increased GDP with increased prices • If this is not corrected, suppliers will not be able to maintain production with increased price and AS will decline, causing even higher high prices and decreased GDP (high unemployment) • This is also called stagflation FP’s unintentional affect on supply of labor • If gov’t increases transfer payments (unemployment pay) too much during a contractionary period, expansionary policy will give the unemployed who benefit from increased transfer payments, have less incentive to find work • If gov’t decreases taxes too much during an expansionary period, contractionary policy will give workers, who find their wage reduced by the higher tax rates, less incentive to work • Both of these situations would reduce AS, causing high prices (inflation) and lower the GDP