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The Energy Challenge and Green Power Professor K.B. Chan Chairman, Hong Kong Electronic Industries Association WEF Shenzhen, China November 15, 2009 Ref No.: SMT-CDV-091110WEF-Rev. 2.0 Contents The Global problems The energy challenge The CO2 issue What actions to take? Renewable 100% Green Power? Conclusion The Global Problems HKEIA • 1. Population 2009 6.8 billion 2040 9 billion + ( ~ 30% increase ) • 2. Enough Resources? Quality Resources? Land Food Raw Material Air Energy Water • 3. Economy Growth Poverty • 4. Environment Climate Pollution Waste Page 3 The Energy Challenge HKEIA • Currently the world consumes total energy of ~ 16 TW ~ 2.4 kW per capita ( T = tera or trillion = 1,000 billion ) • By 2030 it will be ~ 23 TW ~ 40% increase due to growth in economy, population • Very uneven distribution – kW per capita 2009 USA -10, UK - 5, China – 2, Bangladesh – 0.2 Page 4 HKEIA World’s primary energy supply : • • • • • • 80% - burning fossil fuels 43% oil, 32% coal, 25% natural gas 10% burning combustible renewables and waste 5% nuclear 5% hydro 0.5%geothermal, solar, wind, . . . Page 5 Electricity – HKEIA % of electrical output World China Coal 41% 80% Oil 6% 2% Gas 20% 0.5% Nuclear 15% 0.2% Hydro 16% 15% Bio & waste 1.3% - Geo 0.3% - Wind 0.7% 1.4% Solar* 0.02 - ~ 11TW, 64% of primary energy Page 6 Fossil fuel is running out soon! HKEIA Energy Timescales Years Remaining Oil 40 ~ 50 Natural Gas 60 Coal 120 ~ 200 If economic & population growth increase faster, the above period will shorten! Source: “Statistical Review of World Energy 2009”, (www.bp.com) Page 7 HKEIA Oil supply Note: discoveries back-dated Page 8 HKEIA The CO2 issue World Carbon Dioxide Emission, Billion Metric Tons 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 29.0 30.4 31.0 2006 2008 2010 33.1 2015 35.4 2020 37.9 2025 40.4 2030 - Again unbalanced (Tonnes per person/yr) - World - 4.4, USA - 19, UK - 8.6, China - 4.6, Bangladesh - 0.25 Source: Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2009 Page 9 Global warming & Pollution - Forecast HKEIA 2050, sea level rise 1 meter 10% world populations will lose their homelands 2050 in China, output of crops will down 30% due to water shortage Premature deaths caused by air pollution in each year: Globally - 2 million deaths, China 650,000, India - 530,000, USA - 41,000 Page 10 Urgent tasks ahead for the world • • • • • • HKEIA Reverse global warming Reduce CO2 emission Optimize fossil fuel consumption Develop alternative energy source Transition to 100% sustainable Green power Maintain balanced economic growth • Mission impossible??? Page 11 What actions to take? • • • • HKEIA 1. 2. 3. 4. Reduce energy use De-carbonization Develop sustainable Green Power Devise economic tools & political will power to make the above happen Questions : • 1. Is there a solution at all? • 2. Too little & too late? Page 12 Reduce energy use HKEIA Where used – developed economy Industry ~ 25% Transport ~ 25% Built/Environment/appliance ~ 50% ( private & commercial ) Industry – not much can be done! Could use more for economic growth Page 13 Built/Environment/Appliance HKEIA • Improve in building design can save > 30% Housing stock take 100 years turn over • Efficient appliance, heating & cooling Change of lifestyle Investment • Lighting ~ 20% of electricity use replace incandescent bulb by LED even 100% cut consumption by 3% Above can help but not enough! Page 14 Transport HKEIA • 900million cars now, 2,100 million in 2030 • Almost 100% internal combustion engine, huge consumption of oil & emit CO2 • Solution : • 1. More efficient engine by 50% just use less oil & less CO2 • 2. Electric cars – hybrid, plug in battery issue, infrastructure & green electricity • 3. Hydrogen car too expensive and no infrastructure Pace of introduction of green cars too slow! Page 15 CO2 target – IEA 450 scenario HKEIA CO2 rises to 510 ppm 2035 – 2045, then declines very slowly to 450 ppm Page 16 De-carbonization HKEIA Neutralization Our earth has 4 million hectare of Jungle can neutralize 97 billion metric tons of CO2 per year The neutralization will saturate in ~ 100 years However, forest is disappearing fast due to urbanization and over exploit of wood Action : reduce wood usage find alternative e.g. bamboo re-forest Page 17 De-carbonization HKEIA • CCS – Carbon Capture & Storage • As we will still depend on fossil fuel for main electricity generation till 2030 and beyond, another 100 years? • Design & build higher efficient power plants • Develop and deploy technology to capture and burial of CO2 from power stations and large industrial plants! Page 18 Renewable energy & Green Power • • • • • • 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. HKEIA Biofuel Hydro & tidal Geothermal Wind Solar Nuclear Page 19 Biofuel HKEIA • 1. Ethanol – • 1.1 G1 – Corn, sugar cane Only 2% gain Disrupt food chain • 1.2 G2 - cellulose Ready in 2013? Scale up issue • 2. Biomass • 2.1 Methane lock in permafrost Technology not ready May upset environment ** Both still emit CO2, just less. Use to reduce oil consumption Page 20 Hydro, tidal, geothermal, wind HKEIA • 1. Hydro – most available sites identified • 2. Tidal – specific region • 3. Geothermal – specific region • 4. Wind Mature technology however unstable only 25% efficiency Page 21 Solar HKEIA • 1. Concentrate • 2. Photovoltaic • • Unstable - sun dependent • Night time issue • Storage issue • Both technology are mature • Highly scalable • Need cost down • Government incentive Page 22 Nuclear • • • • • • • • • • • • HKEIA 1. Fission Good solution Safe but social barrier Uranium last only 80 yrs at current rate Waste treatment Fear of “making the bomb” 2. Fast breeder Small scale & takes 12 years cycle 3. Thorium Experimental 4. Fusion Theoretical best solution but not yet success Page 23 The challenge – 100% Green Power HKEIA • To replace all 11 TW with renewables needs • Hydro ~ 1.5 TW • Nuclear ~ 1 TW • Wind ~ 3.5 TW • Solar ~ 2.5 TW Concentrate • 2.5 TW Photovoltaic Page 24 We need to build - minimum • • • • • 300 more hydro stations 1,000 nuclear power stations 700,000 large wind turbines 8,300 solar concentrates 8,300 solar farms HKEIA @ 1 GW @ 1 GW @ 5 mW @ 300mW @ 300mW • Efficiency not taking into account! • Other Issues : Investment? Time required? Trigger other environmental issues? Engineering man power? Page 25 The material hurdle HKEIA • The world does not have enough critical raw materials to build them • Silver • Lithium • Indium • Tellurium • Platinum • Rare earth elements Page 26 Possible scenario - IEA HKEIA Page 27 The conclusion 1 • • • • HKEIA Huge increase in energy demand and growing Global warming is real and imminent, due to CO2 Fossil fuels will still be used for quite a long time The reserve can be stretched and CO2 reduced by Reduction in consumption De-carbonization Efficient power plants Efficient appliance, building, cars Change in lifestyle Page 28 The conclusion 2 HKEIA • Big challenge in developing & deploying environmental friendly technology • All formats are needed, main ones are hydro, wind, solar, nuclear • Many hurdles to overcome • Huge R&D effort • Huge investment & long build up time • Global effort • Political will power is the final key! Page 29 The electronic industry is deeply involved in all aspects. We are part of the solution as well as part of the problem! Action is Now! Do not wait for Copenhagen