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Rock star economy but who can afford a house? NZ Update Chris Tennent-Brown – ASB Senior Economist August 2015 Topics • NZ economic snapshot. • Housing market comments. • Strengths and weaknesses– sectors and regions. • What next? 2 Disclaimer This document is a private communication and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the approval of ASB. The information contained in this document is given with an express disclaimer of responsibility. No right of action shall arise against ASB or its employees either directly or indirectly as a result of this information. Those acting upon this information do so entirely at their own risk. This information does not purport to make any recommendation upon which you may reasonably rely without taking further and more specific advice. 3 Rock star economic growth % NZ GDP GROWTH % 7 7 Annual av erage % (f) 5 5 3 3 1 1 -1 -1 Per quarter -3 Mar-89 4 Source: Stats NZ, ASB Mar-94 Mar-99 Mar-04 -3 Mar-09 Mar-14 • Growth trend is around 2.53%. Largely led by strong population growth, consumer spending. • Great performance by global standards. • Export outlook mixed. Dairy a key risk this year. • Low interest rates and lower NZD will support growth over 2016. Dairy doldrums $ MILK PRICE AND DIVIDENDS (per kg milksolid) 10 Source: Fonterra, ASB Dividend ASB Milk Price forecasts 8 Milk Price 6 4 • However, taking a step back (and a deep breath), we expect the dairy price bottom is nigh. • Nonetheless, the milk price this year is going to be low. 2 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Long Run 5 • Dairy fundamentals are taking a back seat to very weak market sentiment for now. Elsewhere, it’s a little more encouraging Index June 2011 year = 1 1.6 PRICES FOR SELECTED NZ FOOD EXPORTS TO CHINA Source: Stats NZ Kiwifruit 1.5 NZ EXPORTS $ $ (Annual $ billion) 18 36 Dairy Source: Stats NZ Beef 1.4 15 30 12 24 Mutton 1.3 Lamb 1.2 Other (RHS) 9 1.1 Wine 1.0 Meat 6 18 12 0.9 0.8 3 Dairy (whole milk powder) 6 Forestry 0.7 0 Note: 2015 includes 11 months to May 0.6 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 05 2015 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 2016 • Weaker dollar, reasonable prices, and lower interest rates 6 Tourism doing well '000 NZ SHORT TERM ARRIVALS '000 (m onthly, seasonally adjusted) 280 RWC CWC 260 ANNUAL CHINESE SHORT-TERM ARRIVALS 350 300 240 250 Lions tour 200 220 150 200 100 180 50 Source: Stats NZ 160 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: Stats NZ 0 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 • Record tourist arrivals over the past year • Lower NZD a boost for local operators • Chinese visitor arrivals keep lifting, Australians keep coming. 7 Strong population growth NZ NET MIGRATION (annual total) '000s '000s 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Source: Stats NZ -20 Jan-90 8 -20 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 • Net migration at record highs. • Fewer permanent departures as Australian job opportunities slow. • Increased permanent arrivals, returning NZer’s from Australia and skill shortages attracting foreign labour. Strong labour demand AND supply EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT % % 6 12 (f) Annual employ ment growth 10 3 8 6 0 4 Unemploy ment rate (rhs) 2 Source: Stats NZ, ASB forecasts -3 Mar-93 Mar-97 Mar-01 Mar-05 Mar-09 Mar-13 Mar-17 0 • Labour demand is strong, with employment up 3% yoy. • Construction and manufacturing key drivers of employment demand. • However, labour supply is growing strongly. • Strong net migration, dominated by young people motivated to find jobs. • Nominal wage growth is weak, but real wage growth is strong. 9 Sector employment stories SECTOR GROWTH (000's, annual change) Manufacturing Construction Retail trade, and accommoda-tion and… Arts, recreation, and other services(3) Information media and telecom-… Agriculture, forestry, and fishing Health care and social assistance Professional, scientific, technical,… Rental, hiring, and real estate services Financial and insurance services Transport, postal, and warehousing Electricity, gas, water, and waste services Mining Education and training Public administration and safety Wholesale trade -25 10 -15 -5 5 15 25 Sector growth stories (GDP) NON-RESIDENTI AL INVESTMENT (annual average growth) % Q1 2015 PRODUCTION GDP (Annual % Change) 0.0 40 Source: Stats NZ, ASB est Agr i/forestry/fishi ng (f) 30 Mining 20 Manufactu ring 10 ` Elect/g as/water/waste 0 Constru ction -10 Wholesale Trade -20 Retail Trad e & Accommodation -30 Mar-89 Mar-93 Mar-97 Mar-01 Mar-05 Mar-09 Mar-13 Mar-17 Transport/postal/wareho using Media/telecommu nicatio ns % RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (annual average growth) Fin. & insuran ce service s 30 Rental/hiring/rea l estate 20 Pro f/scien tific/technical/admin 10 Pub lic admin & safe ty ` 0 Edu cation /trainin g Health car e/social assistance -10 Arts/recrea tio n/other services -20 Source: Stats NZ, ASB est (f) -30 Mar-89 Mar-93 Mar-97 Mar-01 Mar-05 Mar-09 Mar-13 Mar-17 11 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 Housing construction RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS AUCKLAND RESIDENTIAL CONSENTS (3mma, thousands) (3 m onth m oving average) 000's 000's 3.5 2.4 700 Source: Stats NZ 3.0 2.0 600 Houses NZ 500 2.5 Townhouses 1.6 Apartments 400 2.0 1.2 300 1.5 0.8 200 1.0 0.4 Source: Stats NZ 0.5 Jan-95 12 Auckland (rhs) 0.0 Jan-00 100 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 0 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 By region…… Share of NZ economy Mar-14 % Annual growth = Qtr(t) / Qtr(t-4) Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawke's Bay Taranaki Manawatu-Wanganui Wellington Tasman Nelson Marlborough West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland New Zealand 2.5 35.3 9.0 5.2 0.7 2.8 4.0 4.0 13.2 1.8 1.0 0.7 13.1 4.3 2.4 100 The place to be 13 Population Jun-14 000s 000s annual growth 166 0.9% 1527 2.3% 431 1.5% 282 0.9% 47 0.2% 159 0.6% 115 1.1% 232 0.4% 492 1.0% 49 0.6% 49 1.2% 45 0.2% 33 -0.6% 574 2.0% 212 1.4% 97 0.5% 4510 1.5% Employment Mar-15 000s annual growth 74 -0.1% 797 4.8% 221 2.9% 139 3.7% 99 3.6% 60 108 266 4.2% 2.0% -0.9% 91 1.1% 330 122 55 2361 3.7% 4.1% 5.4% 3.2% Be there or be square Retail Trade Mar-15 $m annual growth 430 9% 5295 10% 1401.9 7% 899 1% 128 -2% 385 4% 255 -4% 632 4% 1548 5% 157 17% 202 15% 164 -6% 95 -38% 2109 13% 827 7% 277 11% 14805 7% Fair to middling House Prices Mar-15 $000s annual growth 341 2.2% 790 13.9% 358 3.7% 401 4.3% 263 -2.5% 333 1.0% 337 2.1% 253 0.5% 438 0.7% 420 0.8% 402 2.6% 365 3.0% 199 -0.7% 442 5.5% 352 3.5% 220 1.2% 491 7.7% Construction Mar-15 $m annual growth 81 -4% 1162 14% 277 -4% 188 20% 12 28% 68 7% 62 -11% 95 51% 244 -23% 39 62% 24 1% 36 45% 17 6% 1072 17% 166 14% 44 13% 3588 10% New Car Sales Mar-15 No. annual growth 1183 8% 28449 16% 4503 14% 2948 16% 235 -9% 1272 8% 1032 10% 1981 7% 5248 11% Needs an energy injection Take pity 1220 12% 237 8028 1790 692 58818 20% 14% 13% -3% 14% Rating Mar-15 5 - hot 1- not The NZ economy 14 RBNZ: Rock Star Governor? 15 RBNZ rate cuts will keep mortgage rates low NZ INTEREST RATES % % 10 10 10-year govt bond 8 8 (f) 6 6 4 4 OCR 2 Mar-01 16 Mar-05 Mar-09 Mar-13 2 Mar-17 • RBNZ cut the OCR 25bp in both June and July. • We expect 2 further 25bp cuts over the rest of 2015, to 2.5%. – Weak dairy outlook – Falling business confidence, – Canterbury rebuild has peaked Mortgage rates % HOME LOAN RATES % (Specials and low LVR Rates) % 8 8 Source: ASB 8.0 8.0 % HOME LOAN RATES 10-y ear av erage July 2014 Variable Rate 7.0 7 7.0 5-y ear 7 Two-y ear ahead f orecast Current 6 6 5 5 6.0 6.0 2-year 1-y ear 5.0 3-y ear 5.0 Source: ASB 4.0 Jan-14 Apr -14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr -15 Jul-15 17 4.0 Current Low LVR special rates 4 Var iable Rate 1-year rate 3-year rate 4 5-year rate Housing market 18 Supply and demand NUMBER OF WEEKS INVENTORY TOTAL HOUSING INVENTORY (thousands, seasonally adjusted) 70 Source: realestate.co.nz 20 60 17 54 60 50 Nationwide (rhs) 40 14 48 11 42 Nationwide 30 Auckland 20 8 10 Wellington Auckland 0 Jan-07 36 Canterbury Source: realestate.co.nz 5 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 30 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-15 • In Auckland there is only 9.6 weeks’ inventory of houses for sale. • Nationwide inventory of houses for sale is nearly 20% below a year earlier (20 weeks’ worth). • Asking prices in Auckland are at a record high. The combination of very low mortgage rates and low numbers of listings means more house price gains should be expected. 19 What next? ASB Housing Confidence Survey (Source: Camorra) Net percent who believe (3 months to July 2015) … Auckland Rest of North Island Canterbury Rest of South Island TOTAL NZ Compare 3 months to April 2015 Good time to buy a house House prices will increase Interest rates will increase -27% 0% -17% -3% -11% -8% 71% 63% 58% 61% 65% 56% -7% 0% -7% 0% -3% 11% • House price expectations hit a record within the latest ASB Housing Confidence Survey, with a net 65% of respondents expecting house prices will increase. • Far fewer respondents expect higher interest rates, and more people are expecting interest rate declines this year. • Sentiment about buying a house varies from region to region. Nationwide a net 11% see now as a bad time to buy. 20 Housing market REGIONAL HOUSE PRICE FORECASTS (annual growth) 25% ASB f /c 20% AKL 15% 5% • Canterbury market starting to find some balance. CHCH 10% Other 0% Wellington -5% Nationwide -10% Source: QV, ASB(f) -15% Mar-06 21 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 • Auckland housing market still tight, low interest rates add further fuel to the fire. Mar-14 Mar-16 • Outside of Auckland and Canterbury, low interest rates boosting demand, housing demand/supply balanced. Auckland houses unaffordable MORTGAGE REPAYMENTS OF A FIRST HOME BUYER % H/H INCOME HOUSE PRICE TO INCOME 10 10 (25 year, 20% deposit) Total Auckland Canterbury Wellington 8 80 8 70 Illustrative only. Assumes median house price and median household income. Auckland 60 6 6 50 40 NZ 4 4 30 Source:StatsNZ, REINZ Jan 00 22 Jan 05 Jan 10 Jan 15 Source: RBNZ, REINZ, ASB estimates 20 Mar-98 Mar-01 Mar-04 Mar-07 Mar-10 Mar-13 Mar-16 Debt...doesn’t have to reduce (but it might) % NZ HOUSEHOLD DEBT & HOUSE PRICES 170 Household debt (% disposable income, lhs) $, '000 $50 0 $45 0 % NZ HOUSEHOLD DEBT (% of disposable income) 180 % 18 household debt (lhs) 160 16 140 14 120 12 100 10 $40 0 140 $35 0 $30 0 110 $25 0 Median house price (rhs) $20 0 $15 0 80 80 8 debt serv icing (rhs) $10 0 60 Source: RBNZ, REINZ 50 Mar-92 Mar-96 Mar-00 Mar-04 Mar-08 Mar-12 23 6 $50 Source: RBNZ $0 40 Mar-91 Mar-95 Mar-99 Mar-03 Mar-07 Mar-11 4 Other ways of looking at the issue HOUSE PRICES/NOMINAL GDP REAL HOUSE PRICE INDEX (Ratio, Average 1980-2000 = 100I) (deflated using CPI) 160 200 160 200 Source: QVNZ, ASB Source: QVNZ, ASB 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 62 24 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 In other words…… • Some of the housing issues relate to the types of houses we have built, and still want. • Zoning also plays a part in affordability. • So does transport. • The trade offs to make housing more affordable aren’t easy. • We need to review our ideas of appropriate housing. 25 Summary • Global growth gradually recovering. • NZ economy is set to record 2.5-3% growth over next 2 years. • But inflation pressures are low, and we expect the RBNZ to cut a further 50bp, OCR back to 2.5% later this year. • Housing: continuing upward pressure on house prices and downward pressure on interest rates. • Auckland’s affordability stretch will remain a problem for a while – opportunities for elsewhere. 26 Keep up to date: www.asb.co.nz/reports 27