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Transcript
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Current Events ➲ ● ● ➲ Millions of Poor Are Left Uncovered by Health Law A sweeping national effort to extend health coverage to millions of Americans will leave out two-thirds of the poor blacks and single mothers and more than half of the lowwage workers who do not have insurance, the very kinds of people that the program was intended to help, according to an analysis of census data by The New York Times. Because they live in states largely controlled by Republicans that have declined to participate in a vast expansion of Medicaid, the medical insurance program for the poor, they are among the eight million Americans who are impoverished, uninsured and ineligible for help. The federal government will pay for the expansion through 2016 and no less than 90 percent of costs in later years. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/10/02/us/unins ured-americans-map.html?ref=health Poverty Should Have Risen By CASEY B. MULLIGAN Current Events ➲ ➲ On Day 3 of Shutdown, Neither Side Budging in Budget Standoff Obama Sets Conditions for Talks: Pass Funding and Raise Debt Ceiling ➲ Opening Up the Fed (NYT 2/12) S. Johnson ● The Federal Reserve has great power in modern American society, including the ability to move the economy and, at least indirectly, to create or destroy fortunes. Its powers operate in two ways: through control over monetary policy, meaning interest rates and credit conditions more broadly, and through its influence over how the financial system is regulated generally and how specific large banks are treated. …during the 1980s the Fed’s board held 20 to 30 public meetings a year, but these dwindled during the Greenspan years to fewer than five a year in the 2000s and “only two public meetings since July 2010.” …meetings with opponents of reform outnumber meetings with supporters of reform about 10 to 1 What is ISLM economics? ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ Discussed real sector of economy: production and income Discussed monetary sector What policy tools do we have to affect these? Rough model. “Economics is a two-digit science” Idea is that economy is always moving towards equilibrium Equilibrium system or complex system with leverage points? Chapter 7: Efficiency and Exchange Slide 6 Macroequilibrium in Real Sector Conventional Goals of Monetary and Fiscal Policy ➲ ➲ ➲ Continual economic growth Stable prices ‘Full’ employment Ecological Economic Goals? ➲ ➲ ➲ Ecological sustainability Just distribution Efficiency ● Max QOL/sustainable throughput, NOT monetary value of goods and services Threats to growth ➲ Bubbles and Busts Speculative investment ● ➲ Lack of investment Which comes first? ● ➲ ➲ Financial instability hypothesis Propensity to Save What has happened to US propensity to save? ● ● ● ➲ ➲ In last 50 years? In last 4 years? Paradox of thrift Biophysical limits Social and psychological limits Monetary Policy ➲ ➲ ➲ Based on supply and demand for money Price of money = interest Increase supply, price goes down, and vice versa ● ➲ Decrease interest, and more investments become lucrative ● ● ➲ Who controls money supply? Creates jobs, stimulates consumption But what do people invest in? Decrease interest, and people buy more on credit, save less ● ● Creates demand for projects, stimulates investment Drives speculation Monetary Policy ➲ Only affects market goods directly ● ● ➲ ➲ Typically a trade-off between scale and distribution Poor at dealing with public goods, including ecosystem services Changing reserve requirements Blunt instrument Who’s in charge of MP? ➲ “The Federal Reserve, through its power to raise and lower interest rates, exercises more influence over economic growth and the level of employment than any other government entity. That unusual role dates from the 1970s, when the executive branch and Congress pulled back from the use of fiscal tools — vast New Deal spending and targeted tax cuts — as a means of regulating prosperity.” NYT 2009 Is this true? Real world Fiscal conservatives? Who Controls the Fed? ➲ ➲ ➲ The governors appointed by the president for 14 years, approved by Congress Chair appointed for 4 years Regional bank presidents “selected by leaders of their communities, particularly bankers.” (NYT) Monetary Policy: 4 tools Fed can use: Reserve requirements (within bounds set by congress) ● ● Allows private banks to create more or less money Interest rates (discount window) ● ● Rate at which Fed loans money to banks Open market operations: buying and selling government securities (bonds) ● ● ● Changes money supply. Goal typically is to increase or decrease overnight interest rates for banks loaning to one another (Fed funds rate) Quantitative easing ● ● ● ● Buying governments bonds from gov’t Buying toxic assets from private sector, corporate bonds Could buy municipal bonds What is the real goal of the Fed? ➲ ➲ ➲ Officially to target unemployment and inflation “Their main thrust has been to limit inflation, even at the risk of a recession” NYT 2005, calling Bernanke a safe choice: “The lessons of the Depression sometimes seem to hover behind much of his thinking. Shortly after becoming a Fed governor in 2002, for example, Mr. Bernanke argued forcefully for tough action to head off a possible epidemic of deflation, or downward spiraling prices.” Why does Fed Target Inflation? ➲ ➲ ➲ “In settling on Mr. Bernanke, President Bush ... chose a candidate who would satisfy others -- investors on Wall Street, lawmakers in Congress -- more than himself or his Republican base.” ''They needed somebody that everybody, including the financial markets, would react positively to.'' “But Mr. Bernanke had what many outsiders wanted: a world-class reputation among economists; credibility on Wall Street” Why does Fed Target Inflation? ➲ NYT: To Senators, Bernanke Defends the Fed’s Dual Objectives ● ● Senate Republicans on Tuesday, like their colleagues in the House last week, expressed concern that the Fed effectively was declaring that it would prioritize job growth over inflation. “I want to disabuse any notion that there is a priority for maximum employment,” Mr. Bernanke responded. Current Events ➲ ➲ Latest ‘Nobel’ laureates in econ Debt default Fighting Inflation ➲ Monetary policy ● ● ● ➲ ➲ Raise interest rates: bad for debtors, good for creditors, bad for farming, construction Decrease money supply Blunt instrument Either one can increase unemployment, reduce wages Feds 2 goals are at odds Fighting Deflation ➲ Bernanke’s remedies ● ● ● Buying treasury securities with longer maturities Buy up private debt, e.g. corporate bonds “In effect, the Federal Reserve would be printing more money and injecting it into the economy — a strategy of “quantitative easing,” in Fed jargon.” Limits to Monetary Policy ➲ Liquidity trap ● ● ● When demand is inadequate, firms have excess capacity, increasing money supply (reducing r) has no impact on investments. 'Pushing on a string’ Seems to be our current status Current Monetary Policy ➲ ➲ Discount window from 5.75% August 2007 to ~0% today; Fed funds rate shows similar plunge “keep short-term interest rates near zero until late 2014” Fiscal Policy ➲ Taxation ● ➲ Government expenditure ● ● ➲ Reduces demand, contracts economy, drives down interest rates Stimulates investment, expands economy Drives up interest rates if competing with private sector Crowding out ● ● ● When economy is at full capacity, government expenditure might simply displace private sector expenditure This was dominant belief until recession Allows macroallocation between market and non-market resources 3 Ways for Government to Spend ➲ Tax and spend ● ● ➲ Borrow and spend ● ● ● ➲ Spending more than counteracts equal tax Surplus = taxes > expenditures Greater short term impact than tax and spend Deficit = expenditures > taxes Borrowing now = taxes in future Print money and spend ● ● ● Does not increase interest rates Threat of inflation We could increase reserve requirements, give government more control Current Fiscal Policy ➲ ➲ Europe US Stimulus? Reagan vs. Obama Reagan Up 3.1% Gov’t employment Gov’t purchases Up 11.6% goods and services Total gov’t Up >10% spending, including transfers Obama Down 2.7% Down 2.6% Up 2.6% Or Austerity? ➲ ➲ ➲ Severe austerity in Europe “Republicans swept to a majority in the House on an antideficit platform” Goal now is deficit reduction Quiz ➲ ➲ ➲ ➲ What impact should a monetary expansion have on interest rates and economic growth? What impact should an increase in the savings rate have on economic growth? What impact should a tax increase have on economic growth? What impact should an increase in government spending have on economic growth? Impact of Policies on Scale, Distribution and Allocation ➲ What should our goals be? ● ● ● ● ● ● Sustainable Scale Just Distribution Efficient allocation Stability How do we reduce consumption without increasing unemployment, while making poor better off? What is appropriate balance between market goods and public goods? Integrating Monetary and Fiscal Policy From To Fractional reserve banking 100% reserve requirements (window of opportunity) Private sector seigniorage Public sector seigniorage Growing money supply for growing economy Constant money supply? for steady state economy Pro-cyclical Countercyclical New money spent on market goods New money spent on public goods or loaned for essential market goods Taxing income and labor Taxing throughput and unearned income Fiscal Policy to Regulate Gov’t Created Money Supply ➲ ➲ Spend and tax ● ● Lend and repay ● ● ● ➲ Taxes destroy any money spent into existence. Counter-cyclical expenditures must be accompanied by future tax increases. Tax things we don’t want Government can lend money interest free for investment in public goods or critically important market goods Repayment destroys money Money can be lent to state and municipal governments, or used to purchase interest free bonds (monetizing state and local debt) Time deposits in local banks ● The government can deposit money in local banks for fixed periods of time, and the banks can then loan this money to customers. Withdrawal of the loan and payment of interest on the government portion of the loan both destroy the money created. Taxes for a Sustainable and Just Economy ➲ ➲ Tax (or charge for) bads, not goods Tax what we take, not what we make ● ● ➲ ➲ Capturing rent (unearned income) What are current tax rates on unearned income? Taxation as a form of redistribution Taxes to back money supply Fiscal Policy ➲ Taxes Can be targeted: ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 'tax bads, not goods’ 'tax what we take, not what we make’ Progressive taxes Reduces overall consumption Stabilizes economy Can have important impact on scale WWII 96% marginal tax rate Fiscal Policy ➲ Subsidies ● ● Research and development Activities that provide positive externalities: 'subsidize goods, not bads' Fiscal Policy ➲ Government expenditures ● ● ● ➲ Can be targeted: welfare for corporations or for the poor? Public goods or private goods? What offers highest marginal benefits? Investments in human made vs. natural K Crowding out in a full world ● At full employment, gov’t expenditures on public goods displace private expenditures