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st 21 Century Workforce: Central Illinois Richard W. Judy Workforce Associates, Inc. [email protected] 317-841-0133 Workforce 2020 was the starting point. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 2 Central Illinois defined Map 1 Central Illinois Stark Illinoi Peoria Marshall Woodford Tazewell 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 3 Five axioms 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Economic Development and Workforce Development are “joined at the hip.” Every region needs a strong export sector. Productivity is the key to growth & prosperity. Plans for progress & change must come from the inside. Follow-through and implementation are the keys to success. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 4 An overview 1. A brief look at how Central Illinois has fared economically in recent years. 2. Ten basic findings of the study. 3. Three scenarios of the future. 4. Developing a 21st century workforce for Central Illinois: 10 key challenges. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 5 The area’s economic growth has lagged the state’s and nation’s Indexes of GDP Growth for the U.S., Illinois, and the Central Illinois Region, 1977-1998 1977=100 200 Central Illinois 180 160 Illinois United States 140 120 100 80 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and estimates based on BEA data. 60 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 (conc.) GDP Growth Index 1977=100 Recent years Year 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 6 Finding #1 Central Illinois’ Three Historical Eras of Economic Development, Early Times Into Figure 10: The History of Employment in the 21st Century (An Leading impressionistic Central Illinois’ Industries view) (an impressionistic view) (Impress Heavy Equipment Manufacturing Number of Jobs Tomorrow’s Leader or leaders Agricultural Processing Farming 1800 1900 2000 2100 Time 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 7 Finding Central Illinois needs new & stronger “export” clusters #2 Export or die. Conducive conditions: Excellent schools & culture of learning. Physical infrastructure. Fair and reasonable taxes. Institutional & government coherence. Regional cooperation. First class public services. A workforce adequate in quantity and high in quality 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 8 Finding #3 Powerful forces are creating a “knowledge economy” in America Forces driving change: Technology Globalization Changing industrial & occupational structure Profound demographic change 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 9 Finding Competitive success in a “knowledge-based” economy #3 (conc.) Depends on the ability to: Produce new ideas, transform old ones, & convert them into intellectual property. Incorporate & commercialize knowledge into products & services. Respond quickly to rapidly changing opportunities, threats and other market conditions. Quickly acquire new technologies, skills and knowledge. True for communities, companies and individuals. Central Illinois must become part of America’s new “knowledge-based” economy or fall behind. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 10 Finding Wanted: A strategy for economic development in C.I. #4 C.I. has lacked a coherent strategy & defined direction for its economic development in the early 21st century. The Bioscience initiative and its outgrowths are steps in the right direction. “We need more than one vine to climb.” 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 11 Finding C.I.’s workforce growth has lagged seriously. Index of Workforce Size, U.S., Illinois, and Central Illinois, 1975-2000 160 United States Illinois Central Ilinois 150 Index: 1975=100 #5 140 130 120 110 100 Source: IDES 90 1975 1980 1985 21st Century Workforce: 1990 1995 Central Illinois 2000 12 Finding #5 (conc.) Worker dearth: The quantitative workforce challenge A Looming Worker Shortage by 2008 in Central Illinois? Number of Workers or Persons 30,000 25,000 23,822 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,839 5,000 -17,983 0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 -20,000 -25,000 Projected Projected Growth of Employment Growth, Working Age 1998-2008 Population, 1998-2008 Possible Shortfall Sources: Employment growth projections are from Illinois Department of Employment Security. Projected growth of the working age population is from Illinois Department of Commerce and Community Affairs. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 13 Finding How to cope with potential worker dearth? #5 (conc.) Augment workforce growth Spur growth of working age population. Boost participation rates among all groups Raise net inbound commuting. (including minorities, women, older residents and persons with disabilities). Raise productivity Increase investment & improve management. Improve workforce quality. Improve the match of workers with jobs. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 14 Finding Improving workforce quality: What it means. #6 In America’s 21st century “knowledgebased” economy, a successful person and a valuable worker will need: Great powers of flexibility, creativity, and the capability to quickly acquire new skills & knowledge. The motivation and ability to quickly learn what he/she does not yet know. A sound basic education. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 15 Finding A sound high-school education is an essential prerequisite #6 (conc.) Without it, the prospect is for a life of dismal jobs and meager earnings. Much room for improvement in C.I In 2000-2001, nearly 700 C.I. high students dropped out of school. Probably 500 of those will never receive a high school diploma or G.E.D. Over the course of 10 years, that totals to 5,000 young people, Even among those who do graduate, too many fail to demonstrate at least the minimum level of achievement according to state standardized tests. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 16 Finding Improving K-12 education is key to workforce development in C.I. #7 K-12 education is the most important formal workforce development most people ever experience. Reduce dropout rates & raise graduation rates. Improve learning outcomes; Cognitive skills (The four “Rs” – reading, ‘riting, ‘rithmetic, and reasoning.) Communication & computer skills. “Soft skills” including teamwork, leadership & customer relations, & other “people” skills. Ability to find and use information and to learn things that you don’t already know. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 17 Finding Learning must continue throughout life. #8 A dynamic and ever-changing “knowledgebased” economy means that one’s old skills & knowledge can become obsolete rapidly & frequently. To maintain their employability & earning power, workers must retool, refresh & augment their skills & knowledge continually. Incumbent workforce needs: Motivation to retool, refresh, gain new skills, etc. Opportunities to do so. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 18 Finding The match of workers with jobs #9 Already pretty good in C.I. But it can be improved: Career counseling. Students. Marginal workers Incumbent workers. A promising area for business-education collaboration! Student & worker assessment. Job profiling. Comprehensive and up-to-date labor market information. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 19 Finding C.I.’s workforce development system #10 Much improved in recent years. But it is still too fragmented. Multiple agencies & departments delivering services. Each with its own funding streams and bureaucratic turf to defend Impedes full implementation of the “one-stop” concept It’s past time to bury all bureaucratic and other parochialisms. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 20 Challenges Ten key challenges 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Make C.I. a “Learning Community” and “brand” it as such. Reduce high school dropout rates & raise graduation rates. Improve educational outcomes of K-12 education. Ensure proper mix of educational and training opportunities as well as of career guidance and counseling. Make the C.I. worker training and retraining system the nation’s most responsive & efficient 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 21 A definition Conc. What is a learning community? Two essential components: Motivation High awareness among all members of the community of the value and critical importance of education and lifetime learning. An avid enthusiasm and drive for learning & knowledge throughout the community. Opportunity Affordable and accessible opportunity for every person of every age to further their drive for learning and self improvement. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 22 Challenges Conc. Ten key challenges 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. (concluded) Recruit & retain a skilled workforce pool for Central Illinois. Lower barriers to workforce participation for all. Make C.I. highly attractive place to live & work for the kind of talent needed. (PEEP) Work together. Banish petty parochialisms. Bring the Bioscience Strategy and other viable economic development strategies to fruition. 21st Century Workforce: Central Illinois 23 Thanks Very Much Richard W. Judy Workforce Associates, Inc. [email protected] 317-841-0133