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Scenario development for policy
analysis: ongoing experiences
in Europe and the Netherlands
ETSAP 24-25 November 2004, Firenze
Koen Smekens, Hilke Rösler
ECN Policy Studies, The Netherlands
Current activities
• Major EU projects
-
Cascade Mints
HyWays
NEEDS
EFDA
• Wide variety of policy questions & issues to be
covered
• Involving MARKAL/TIMES analytical work and
model extensions
2
Cascade Mints
Cascade Mints - Introduction
• Stands for : CAse Study Comparisons And Development
of Energy Models for INtegrated Technology Systems
• FP6 project, DG Research
• Part 1: Modelling possible configurations of a
hydrogen economy and using models to study its
prospects
• Part 2: Medium- and Long-term policy scenarios focusing
on the impact of renewables, nuclear and CCS (follow up of
the ACROPOLIS project)
• Partners: 15 institutes in Europe, US, Canada and Japan
• January 2004-December 2006
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Cascade Mints
Cascade Mints
PART 1
PART 2
Modelling possible
configurations of a
hydrogen economy and
using models to study its
prospects
Coordinator: NTUA
Joint case studies
on policy issues
with
operational
energy models
Coordinator: ECN
Administrative Coordinator:
NTUA
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Cascade Mints
CM part 1 - objectives
• Extensive model development
• Technological scenario analysis:
Aim to identify conditions under which hydrogen can transform the
energy system with particular emphasis on aspects of the transition.
• Hydrogen technology dynamics
Examine conditions under which favourable developments in the
technical and economic characteristics of hydrogen related
technologies (both on the demand and supply side) may materialise.
Incorporate relationships in the models to equip them with the ability
to perform R&D policy simulations in a dynamic environment
• Stochastic evaluation of hydrogen economy
prospects
Systematic evaluation of the risks (and opportunities) facing
the evolution of the hydrogen economy: assessment as to how
likely different paths towards it are.
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Cascade Mints
CM Part 2 – objectives
• Investigate the role of different policies in improving
security of supply, reducing GHG emissions and
fostering technological innovation
-
What will happen without intervention?
What room is available for policy intervention?
Show consequences (energy mix, emissions, SoS, cost)
Analyse trade-offs and synergies on different policy issues
• Enhance the communication between model experts
and policy-makers
• Build consensus among model experts
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Cascade Mints
CM Part 2 – classification of models
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Cascade Mints
CM Part 2 – background and
baseline analysis
• Long term challenges for • Harmonization of drivers
the energy sector
- IPCC B2 storyline
-
Environmental impacts
Security of supply
Acceptable costs
Global interactions
• Key drivers for change
- Economical growth
- Availability of resources
- Technological
development
- Infrastructure
- Geopolitical situation
- Policies
- Preferences
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- Energy prices (oil, coal, gas) form
POLES
- Economic growth
- European policies (present policies
valid for 2003-2012, abandoned
afterwards but CO2 tax of 10€/ton
after 2012)
• Analysis of outcome (Europe,
world)
- Primary energy demand
- Security of supply
- Emissions
Cascade Mints
Selected baseline results
CM Part 2 – mix primary energy
consumption
2050
World
21%
18%
Fossil fuels
4%
6%
Western
Europe
Nuclear
Renewables
76%
75%
Energy mix remains dominated by fossil fuels, but mix changes
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Cascade Mints
CM part 2 – percentage of world oil
production from Middle East
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000
2010
2020
Message
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GMM
2030
Poles
DNE21+
2040
PACE
Cascade Mints
2050
CM Part 2 – Import dependency
Europe
• Oil
• Gas
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
2000
2010
Oil production
12
2020
2030
Oil imports
0%
2000
2010
2020
Imports (Russia and FSU)
2030
Imports (Africa, Latin America, Middle East)
Natural gas production (Western Europe)
Cascade Mints
CM Part 2 – global CO2 emissions
[Gton]
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
13
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Cascade Mints
CM Part 2 – Key messages for
Europe in 2030
• Energy consumption grows with some 20-25% in 20002030; dominated by fossil fuels
- Increasing import dependency (up to 70%)
• Uncertain: Power generation mix
- Growers: natural gas and renewables (wind, biomass)
- Decrease: oil
- Large variety in the prospects for coal technologies and nuclear
power
- New Member States: increasing contribution from natural gas
and renewables at expense of coal
• Share of electricity in final demand increases; fastest
growth in new Member States
• Mixed message on CO2 due to increasing importance of
natural gas
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Cascade Mints
CM Part 2 – Renewables case study
• Focus: Europe, but world models contribute
- Two approaches - Europe 2020, world 2050
- Major scenario assumptions: EU targets (12 and 20% of primary
energy consumption in 2020)
- World models: subsidy scheme (ct/kWh green electricity)
- Use models according to strength
- Several sub-questions
• Technological developments
• Impact on other important issues: employment, SoS, …
• Interregional dependence: spill-overs, relative growth, …
• Report and policy brief in January 2005
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Cascade Mints
CM Part 2 - forthcoming case studies
• Nuclear case
- 2 versions: phase out in OECD and global technical breakthrough, both under sever climate constraints (100€/ton CO2)
• CO2 capture and storage
- No outline yet
• Hydrogen economy
- No separate case (=CM part 1), but synergy analysis
• More information Cascade Mints
- http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/cascade.html
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Cascade Mints
HyWays
Building a fully validated and accepted
H2-roadmap for Europe
Background - Objectives
• The transition towards a hydrogen based
society is the starting point
- Simulation models show usually “no hydrogen” (short
term benefits vs. long term profits)
- Boundary of future hydrogen society have to be set
by the Scoping Report
• HyWays has to show that the transition towards
a future hydrogen society is preferable
- Emission impacts, employment effects, impacts on
GDP
- Indicate the conditions (policy measures, energy
prices, CO2 contstraints, etc.)
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HyWays
Scope and level of ambition
Scoping report
• Ambition has to be in line with US, Japan
• Consensus on forehand on essential project
characteristics (Industry, Institutes, MS, EC)
- Scenario parameters (energy prices, energy
demand,)
- Depletion of natural resources (e.g. natural gas bij
20??)
- Policy framework (550 ppm level in 2050, emission
trading, etc.)
- Time horizon (2020, 2030, 2050)
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HyWays
Major research questions
Penetration of hydrogen as an energy vector for
mobile and stationary applications;
- Development of penetration rate and investment (additional)
costs of hydrogen relevant technologies
- Pathway analysis, including identification of critical actors
and key changes and plausible hydrogen production routes
matched to feasible timeliness
- Changes in primary and final energy demand (security of
supply)
- Blueprint of a possible future hydrogen based society
(stationary and mobile)
- Emission analysis indicating achievable reductions in
greenhouse gasses and pollutant emissions
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HyWays
Major research questions (2)
• Demands on infrastructure
- Estimated costs, capital investments and timescales
for infrastructure built-up
• Identification of different (most promising)
regional markets for a hydrogen economy in
Europe and development of regional market
strategies
• Development of industry R&D strategies for the
creation of hydrogen economies; identification
key technologies and needs for further research
(R&D)
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HyWays
Major research questions (3)
• Analysis of economical (i.e. subsidies, taxation)
and legal conditions (i.e. regulatory policies)
under which a hydrogen economy can become
competitive in order to derive a European set of
recommendations
- Impacts on GDP, EU balance of trade, economic
structure, employment effects, private vs. public
investments, security of supply and social justice
- Impacts of introducing general policy instruments
such as a CO2-tax, emission trading etc.
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HyWays
Characteristics
• Many partners (>30): Institutes and Industry (cofunding), MS/regions
• Start: 1 April 2004
• Time frame (2 x 18 months)
• Phase 1: NL, Gr, Nw, It, Fr, D
• Phase 2: other member states of EU-25
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HyWays
Objectives
• Valid storylines, taking into account all kinds of
barriers and opportunities have to be build
- Models can address energy demand,
penetration rates, emission impacts etc., but
not country specific infrastructure built up or
niche market development
- Hybrid approach (including actor analysis) is
needed
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HyWays
General Framework
Hybrid approach
• Address impact on
-
micro level (technology) – E3-database and Markal
meso level (sectoral level) – ISIS I/O-model
macro level (national level) – GEM-E3
emission impacts – based on COPERT III
• Technical, social, economic, political/institutional aspects
have to be taken into account
• Multi-level
- Micro level – cost/benefit ratio (pay back time)
- Macro/meso level – cost effectiveness (€ / tonne CO2)
25
HyWays
Hybrid approach
WP1 & WP2
Data collection
WTW and STU analysis
LBST
CEA
ECN
ISI
ZEW
ENEA
E3 database
WP3 Task 1
Regions profiling
Framework
Energy balance
Technology
Scenario Analysis
specific
WP3 Task 2
(Experts)
information
Scenarios
Scenario assumptions
results
Markal
Energy system analysis
H2-Scenario results
WP3 Task 3
(Focus: Energy System)
Selected
- Physical & monteary
Energy
demand flows
Technologies
consumption
WP3 Task 4,5
ISIS
GEM E3
I/O Analysis
Equilibrium model
(Focus: All industry
branches)
(Focus: Energy system and
Production level
Industry)
Energy consumption
CO2.Emissons
Environmental Models
Emissions
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IST
ICSTM
ECN
H2-Scenario
WP3 Task 6
HyWays
WP1 & WP2
Data collection
WTW and STU analysis
Modelling framework
E3 database
WP3 Task 1
Regions profiling
Framework
Energy balance
Technology
specific
Scenario Analysis
information
(Experts)
Scenarios
WP3 Task 2
H2-Scenario
Scenario assumptions
results
Markal
Energy system analysis
H2-Scenario results
WP3 Task 3
(Focus: Energy System)
Selected
- Physical & monteary
Energy
demand flows
Technologies
consumption
WP3 Task 4,5
ISIS
GEM E3
I/O Analysis
Equilibrium model
(Focus: All industry
(Focus: Energy system and
branches)
Production level
Industry)
Energy consumption
CO2.Emissons
Environmental Models
Emissions
27
WP3 Task 6
HyWays
Transition analysis
Analytical framework: using elements from
transition methodology
Key regime changes
•
•
Technology and economics
Consumer behaviour
Critical actors
• Actors opposing
• Actors who benefit
• Neutral actors
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HyWays
Example of topological input
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HyWays
H2 chains
• Member state specific
hydrogen chains
• max 6 pathways per
MS
• Stationary and mobile
options
• Modelling of
infrastructure (lumpy
investment approach)
Truck 40t
Euro IV
GAS
Central SMR
844 MW
GAS
SMR
Pernis
WINDELC
Centr. Electr.
2.4 MW
Biomass
Biomass gasif.
Katofsky
Coal
Coal gasific.
844.9 MW
5 km pipeline
GAS
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Decentr. SMR
960 kW
De-central
LH2
Central GH2
FS LH2
438 kW
Liquefier
30 bar, 300 MW
Gas network
Central GH2
50 km pipeline
Distr.decentr
GH2
GH2 for FS
5 km pipeline
GH2 for H/C
HyWays
FCLH2/ICELH2
Central LH2
Exist. Techn.
Decentral GH2
FS CGH2
2.0 MPa, 457 kW
CHP FCH2
Demand regionalisation
• Regionalisation of end use demand in building
sector (commercial, service and residential) and
transport sector
350
300
heat
250
heat
electr.
petrol. prod.
wood/solid
petrol. prod.
50
wood/solid
0
sp
ac
e
he
at
coal
3000
2000
at
er
co
ok
in
g
Li
gh
tin
re
g
fr i
g.
wa
/fr
ee
sh
ze
in
r
g
m
ac
hi
ne
tu
m
bl
e
dr
ie
di
r
sh
wa
ot
he
sh
ra
er
pp
lia
nc
es
4000
coal
w
5000
gas
150
100
gas
6000
200
wa
rm
7000
PJ final
PJ final
electr.
8000
1000
nc
lia
as
w
es
he
r
ie
r
di
sh
bl
e
tu
m
ot
he
ra
pp
as
h
in
g
m
ac
hi
dr
ne
er
ez
tin
g
re
Li
gh
ng
ok
i
co
ar
m
fri
g.
/fr
e
w
32
w
sp
ac
e
he
wa
te
r
at
0
HyWays
Regionalisation – results (1)
New
4500
4000
PJ Final
MFD
3500
3000
2500
2000
SFD
1500
1000
500
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
New
350
300
33
200
150
100
SFD
Residential
space heating/cooling
Middle WEU 
and NL
PJ Final
MFD
250
2050
other
heat
elc
gas
petrol. Prod.
wood
coal
other
heat
elc
gas
petrol. Prod.
wood
coal
other
heat
elc
gas
petrol. Prod.
wood
coal
50
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
HyWays
2030
2040
2050
Regionalisation – results (2)
6000
Italy
5000
Greece
South WEU
France
3000
Germany
NL
2000
Middle WEU
1000
0
1990
Norway
North WEU
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
600
500
heat
400
Space heating/cooling
Commercial/service
WEU 
and NL
34
PJ final
PJ final
4000
elc
gas
300
petrol. Prod
200
wood
coal
100
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
HyWays2050
More information
• www.HyWays.de
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HyWays