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Social Inclusion, Climate Change and Decision Making for Australia’s Urban Settlements Andrew Beer Centre for Housing, Urban and Regional Planning Introduction • Impacts of climate change will affect the most vulnerable in the global population most and will affect the most vulnerable in Australia to the greatest degree • Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (2006) estimated the cost of climate change at 5% of global GDP – Significant impacts • Dislocation via forced migration • Greater variability and vulnerability in agricultural production • Cost of access to water Social Inclusion and Exclusion • Social Inclusion conceptually opposite of social exclusion – Competing definitions • Social exclusion is a shorthand term for what can happen when people or areas suffer from a combination of linked problems such as unemployment, poor skills, low incomes, poor housing, high crime environments, bad health and family breakdowns. (socialexclusionunit.gov.uk) • The question of social exclusion and integration, it can be argued, largely revolves around access...to decision making, access to resources, and access to common narratives, which enable social integration (Mandipour, 1998 p, 7) – Generally refers to multiple and linked social, economic and cultural problems within an area or group • But a contested concept (March 1998) reinforced by the programs of the EC Social Inclusion and Exclusion • Somerville noted three drivers of social exclusion in advanced economies: – Disadvantage in labour markets – Political/legal structures that disenfranchise some individuals or groups from publicly provided benefits – Exclusion as a result of predominant ideologies – eg racism, sexism, prejudice Social Inclusion and Climate Change: How are Australia’s Settlement Affected? Social Inclusion and Climate Change: How are Australia’s Settlement Affected? Climate Change, Social Inclusion and Australian Settlements • Ist order impacts of climate change – Direct impacts on the economy, events • Cyclone Yarsi – reduced GDP by 3% • Impact of drought – Cost of structural adjustment as some industries fail • Australian industry often dependent on access to resources Climate Change, Social Inclusion and Australian Settlements • 2nd order impacts – Infrastructure failure and the need to build better and higher quality facilities and assets Climate Change, Social Inclusion and Australian Settlements • 3rd order impacts – The cost of adjusting to failed industries – Climate change impacts will arrive on top of other drivers of cchange change Left Labour Force Unemployed/Under-employed Full time employment High Mining High Mining Manufacturing Not All Settlements Will be Affected Equally Regional Centres/ High Government Manufacturing Regional Centres/ High Government Administrative Services Administrative Services Higher Government Administrative Services •Regional Cities by function at the 2001 Census • Smaller settlements more likely to be vulnerable •More remote settlements more vulnerable •Path dependency and ‘lock in’ Mixed Regional Centres Higher Government Tourism/ Administrative Leisure Services Mixed Regional Centres Regional Centres with Tourism Tourism/ Leisure 4 8 Kiama Ocean Grove-Barwon Heads Bathurst 8 Dubbo Kiama Goulburn Ocean Grafton Grove-Barwon Heads Tamworth Wagga Wagga Mackay Rockhampton Toowoomba Launceston Lismore Taree Bainsdale Bendigo Warrnambool Nambour Coal Mining Higher Mining Coal Mining Higher Mining Community Services/ Remote High Education High Government Tourism Administrative Services 2 12 6 Cessnock-Bellbird Lithgow Armidale Mt Isa Kalgoorlie-Boulder 6 Pt Hedland Muswellbrook 12 Singleton Mt Isa Cessnock-Bellbird Karratha Kalgoorlie-Boulder Lithgow Pt Hedland Muswellbrook Singleton Karratha High Government Administrative Sevices/ Cultural Services Community Services/ Remote High Education High Government Tourism 3 13 5 Administrative Services Ballina Nowra-Bomaderry Cairns Broome Coffs Harbour Sale Forster-Tuncurry Townsville 2 13 5 Pt Macquarie Alice Springs Sawtell Broken Hill Armidale Nowra-Bomaderry Cairns Horsham Pt Augusta Broome Sale Hervey Bay Townsville Albany Alice Springs Busselton Broken Hill Geraldton Pt Augusta Agribusiness High Manufacturing Agribusiness 7 Griffith Murray Bridge Pt Lincoln Mildura 7 Bundaberg Gympie Griffith Warwick 9 Mining/ Power Generation High 10 Wangaratta Manufacturing Moe-Yallourn Pt Pirie Morwell Mt Gambier Traralgon Kurri Kurri-Weston 9 Whyalla Murray Bridge Pt Lincoln Mildura Bundaberg Gympie Warwick Wangaratta Pt Pirie Mt Gambier Kurri Kurri-Weston Whyalla High Services Mining/1Power Generation Albury Orange Ballarat Colac Echuca10 Shepparton Moe-Yallourn Maryborough Morwell Burnie-Somerset Traralgon Devonport Defence High14 Services Raymond Terrace Wodonga 1 Albury Orange Ballarat Colac Echuca Shepparton Maryborough Burnie-Somerset Devonport High Manufacturing/ Commuters 11 Defence Maitland Bacchus March Gladstone Bunbury Mandurah 14 Raymond Terrace Wodonga Regional Centres with Tourism 4 Bathurst Dubbo Goulburn Grafton Tamworth Wagga Wagga Mackay Rockhampton Toowoomba Launceston Lismore Taree Bainsdale Bendigo Warrnambool Nambour High Government Administrative Sevices/ Cultural Services 3 Ballina Coffs Harbour Forster-Tuncurry Pt Macquarie Sawtell Horsham Hervey Bay Albany Busselton Geraldton High Manufacturing/ Commuters 11 Maitland Bacchus March Gladstone Bunbury Mandurah Impacts will vary by location •Human Dimensions of Environmental Decision Making • funded by the PSRF • shadows a biosciences project entitled ‘Transects for Environmental Decision Making’ Conclusion • Anthropogenic climate change will have complex impacts on Australia’s settlement system – Shaped by location – Economic structure – Infrastructure – Decision making capacity/achievement Conclusion • Many living in non metropolitan Australia are already amongst the most disadvantaged Australians – Higher levels of Indigenous populations – Lower incomes – Lower educational attainment • Further social exclusion is likely – In the labour market – the compounding impacts of restructuring associated with climate change – Political legal structures that reduce access to government decision making and investment – Attitudinal exclusion – the ideology of the self reliant ‘bush’ as a barrier to action