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How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025? Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment September 26, 2012 Tampa, Florida Supporting Information Presentation by Jan Ignash, Board of Governors www.flbog.edu Percentage of 2010 Population (25-34) with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 2 Florida is ranked 37th 41% 28% 35% 37% 29% 31% 29% 28% overall and last among the ten most populous states in the percent of its 25-34 year old population with a Bachelor’s or higher. 26% 25.6% USA: 31% BIG 10: 31% 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile Source: National Center for Higher Education Management (NCHEMS) analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) Educational Attainment by Degree-Level and Age-Group – see link. www.flbog.edu Percentage of Florida’s 2010 Population with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 3 By Gender and Age Group Relative to National Average 35% 3% 30% 2% 1% 25% 0% 20% -1% 15% -2% -3% 10% -4% 5% -5% 0% -6% 25-34 35-44 MEN 45-64 WOMEN 65 PLUS TOTAL TOTAL 25-34 35-44 MEN 45-64 WOMEN 65 PLUS TOTAL TOTAL Florida needs to increase Adult Education Enrollment Efforts • Florida’s younger men trail women of the same age and older men. • Florida’s current 25-34 year old population, both men and women, trail the national averages. Source: Board staff analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) Educational Attainment by Degree-Level and AgeGroup. www.flbog.edu 4 Florida’s Production of Bachelor’s Degrees per 18-24yr Population Is Below the National Average 63.5 54.9 69.4 53.4 55.4 43.0 47.6 Florida is ranked 34th in the ratio of bachelor’s degrees awarded per 1,000 18-24 year olds. 41.3 40.5 48.2 USA: 52.7 BIG 10: 52.1 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile Source: National Science Foundation State Indicators (table 8-16) – see link. Note: The most recently available data is for 2009. www.flbog.edu 5 Florida’s per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is among the lowest in the country $51,880 $33,390 $38,930 $44,770 $35,920 $45,680 $39,660 Florida is ranked 40th in its per capita GDP for 2010. $37,120 $44,270 $34,980 USA: $41,840 BIG 10: $40,660 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Per capita real GDP by state in 2010 measured in chained (2005) dollars – see link. www.flbog.edu Florida’s per capita Net Earnings (by place of residence) is among the lowest in the country 6 Florida is ranked 45th $42,100 $29,700 $34,600 $38,600 $31,900 $38,700 $30,500 $32,400 $38,200 $27,500 USA: $35,600 BIG 10: $34,400 overall and last among the ten most populous states in per capita Net Earnings by place of residence in 2011. 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Net Earnings by place of residence – State income and employment summary (table SA04). US Census Bureau (July 2011 population estimate for 18yr old and older). Note: Net earnings is earnings by place of work (the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income) less contributions for government social insurance, plus an adjustment to convert earnings by place of work to a place-of-residence basis. www.flbog.edu 7 Florida ranked 33rd in Knowledge Jobs in 2010 New Economy Index PERCENTILE RANK 75-100 50-75 25-50 0-25 Source: New Economy Index 2010 report ranked Florida as 21 st in the Nation, but 33rd in Knowledge-based jobs - see link. Note: “knowledge jobs” indicators in this section measure seven aspects of knowledge-based employment – see p.14. www.flbog.edu The U.S. College Attainment Gap 8 Compared to the Most Educated OECD Countries 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 39% 42% 40% 40% 41% 34% 32% 22% 27% 28% 20% 17% 18% 11% 20% 29% 31% 27% 36% 41% 43% 36% 25% 24% 21% 34% 35% 44% 47% 40% 30% 41% 56% 51% 54% 56% 45% 41% 39% 40% 39% 50% 53% 60% 56% 25 to 34 10% 0% Canada Korea Japan New Zealand Ireland Norway France Belgium Austrailia United States Source: Closing the College Attainment Gap between the U.S. and Most Educated Countries, NCHEMS see link. www.flbog.edu Education Pays: Median Earnings and Tax Payments by Education 9 $120,000 After-Tax Earnings Taxes Paid $100,000 $100,000 $91,900 $25,600 $23,100 $80,000 $67,300 $55,700 $60,000 $39,700 $40,000 $33,800 $24,300 $20,000 $8,700 $42,000 $13,000 $9,300 $68,800 $7,100 $4,700 $19,600 $16,200 $42,700 $26,700 $31,000 $32,700 High School Graduate Some College, No Degree Associate Degree $74,400 $51,100 $Not a High School Graduate Bachelor's Degree Master's Degree Doctoral Degree Professional Degree Source: College Board, Education Pays (2010) Note: Based on 2008 data from full-time, year-round workers aged 25 and older. Taxes paid include federal income, Social Security, Medicare, state and local income, sales and property taxes, www.flbog.edu 10 Increased Educational Attainment Reduces Need for Social Services Poverty Rate (25yrs and older) 30% 25% 24% 25% 20% 15% 13% 12% 9% 10% 8% 5% 5% 4% 0% Less than HS graduate Higgh School Some College or Bachelor's or graduate Associate's higher FLORIDA USA Sources: Unemployment data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Poverty data from US Census, 2006-10 American Community Survey (table S1501). www.flbog.edu Supply Methodology: Historical growth trends 11 2010 Graduate Degree Production in Ten Biggest States California 66,547 New York 67,910 Average Annual Growth in Graduate Degrees (2003-2010) 83,026 North Carolina 82,102 Florida Texas 40,127 49,448 Texas Illinois 40,841 48,468 Pennsylvania Pennsylvania 34,000 Florida Ohio 22,487 Michigan Georgia 16,304 38,521 28,352 21,176 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% Georgia 43,135 29,386 5.7% 4.4% New York 4.0% California 4.0% BIG 10 3.9% Illinois 3.8% 26,765 20,262 Ohio North Carolina 15,388 0 19,343 20,000 2.7% Michigan -0.1% 40,000 Masters 60,000 80,000 100,000 -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Doctoral Sources: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS) data. www.flbog.edu Actual and Projected Public High School Graduates 12 with Standard Diplomas in Florida 180000 160000 FLDOE projects flat growth for standard diplomas* through 2016. 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 Continue Education in FL Standard Diplomas 2019-20 2018-19 2017-18 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 2000-01 0 Historically, 48% - 55% of standard diploma recipients enroll in Higher Ed in Florida. Projected Standard Diplomas Source: BOG staff analysis of FLDOE diploma projections to 2015-16 (as of Feb, 2012) and FETPIP Annual Outcomes Reports. Note*: projections do not include Race to the Top goals, or graduation rate increases. www.flbog.edu 13 Percentage of Florida’s18-24 Year Olds Enrolled in College Is Below the National Average 38% 39% 40% 35% 37% 41% 41% 33% Florida is ranked 31st in the percent of its 18-24 year olds who are enrolled in Higher Education 31% 32% 34% USA: 36% BIG 10: 36% 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile Source: NCHEMS staff analysis of IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey and US Census Population estimates – see link. Note: The most recently available data is for 2009. www.flbog.edu 14 Florida’s Projected Undergraduate Enrollment in 2025 Additional Undergraduate Enrollment in Florida 200,000 Florida’s 18-24 year old population is projected to increase by 147,000 from 2010 to 2025. 152,200 150,000 If Florida enrolls 34% of the 18-24yr old population in 2025, then Florida is projected to add 50,000 undergraduates. 120,500 100,000 107,200 93,900 86,200 57,200 45,100 50,000 50,300 33,100 22,900 If Florida enrolls 36% of the 18-24yr old population in 2025, then Florida will add more than 85,000 undergraduates. 11,500 0 in 2010 Florida (34%) in 2015 in 2020 National Average (36%) in 2025 Top 20 (40%) Source: EDR population estimates (Nov. 2011) for 18-24 year old age group (average between 2020 and 2030 projection) – see link. Note: EDR projects the 20-24 age group will grow faster than 18-19 age group. www.flbog.edu 15 Domestic Migration Overview • Typically, most of Florida’s population growth is from net migration. • In 2030, net migration is forecast to represent 87 percent of Florida’s population growth. Source: EDR, May2012 – see link. www.flbog.edu 16 Florida’s Future Population Growth is Slower & Older Florida’s Projected Growth by Age Historically, population growth has been the Florida’s primary engine of economic growth. However, Florida’s overall population growth is forecast to remain relatively flat – averaging between 0.8% and 1.1% between 2010 and 2030 (compared to the 3% annual rate from 1970 to 1995). EDR estimates that the majority of Florida’s growth over the next two decades will be from people 60 years old and over. SOURCE: EDR, May 2012 – see link. www.flbog.edu 17 Nonagricultural Employment by Industry Florida, July 2012 (Seasonally Adjusted) Education and Health Services 15.4% Professional and Business Services 14.9% Leisure and Hospitality 13.2% Other Services 4.1% Financial Activities 6.6% Total Government 14.8% Information 1.8% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 20.7% Construction 4.2% Manufacturing 4.3% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program, released August 17, 2012. Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center. 17 www.flbog.edu