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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market Rural Workforce Network Lubbock, Texas February 11, 2003 Richard Froeschle, Director Career Development Resources(CDR) [email protected] (512) 491-4941 Why Do We Care About Understanding the Labor Market? • Improve Job Search. Identify industry and occupational areas with economic activity (pos & neg) to guide job search for all customers • Reduce Frictional Unemployment. Improve efficiency of universal job search process by directing clients to occupational areas in demand • Employer Contact. From the targeted list, develop a “hot prospects” or potential “sales” contact list. Better than “cold calling”! Provides rationale for contact strategy and improves staff efficiency • Increase the likelihood of job placements. Assist in connecting education & training programs with actual job openings e.g. finding jobs after exit Why Labor Market Targeting (continued) • Improving Workforce Program Performance. Research demonstrates targeting leads to improved placement rates and Board performance • Connect Local Partners. Knowledge basis for forming industry partnerships/clusters to leverage funds, share resources, promote solutions • Connect to Regional Economic Development Strategies. Focus on targeted industries or clusters. Plan the work, allocate the resources, work the plan • Understand the competition for jobs. Think like an employer, think globally, plan (and act) locally. Prepare yourself and your clients accordingly! Economic forecasting is a field that gives Astrology a good name! Does this Sound Like an Economist? A Changing Texas Labor Market 1. If it’s not a recession, it’s still not fun! Downturn affects output, employment, tax revenues, employment in all sectors 2. Economists still very divided on duration, turning point signals, and level of job growth in recovery What do labor economists agree on? 1. There will be no shortage of opportunities in the knowledge sector for those with the education and intelligence to perform in it 2. All jobs, even the most low-skilled, will require higher levels of basic education, math, communication and technology skills…for survival and growth 3. Those without some specialized knowledge or skill are likely to suffer declining real wages What do labor economists agree on? (II) 4. The Digital Divide exists and those on the wrong side will have limited hiring and advancement opportunities 5. Jobs requiring “human touch” will continue to be in demand e.g. health services and nursing, construction…no robot plumbers! 6. Workplace settings and business practices and knowledges will change rapidly, making lifelong learning essential e.g. life after “paving the cow path” A Changing Texas Labor Market (2) 3. Continued transition to services, not products for value-added and employment opportunities Increase in “high tech” and “high touch” jobs What comes after the Knowledge economy? The Creativity Economy? The Celebrity Economy? U.S. Industries Adding Most Jobs 2000-2010 • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1. Computer and Data Processing 2. Retail Trade 3. Eating & Drinking Places 4. Offices of Health Practitioners 5. State and Local Education 6. Misc. Business Services 7. Construction 8. State and Local Government 9. Wholesale Trade 10. Health Services, NEC 13. Residential Care 14. Hospitals 16. Nursing/Personal Care Facilities 1.80 mil 1.60 mil 1.48 mil 1.24 mil 1.07 mil 1.00 mil 824 thou 808 thou 776 thou 689 thou 512 thou 509 thou 394 thou Texas Industries Adding the Most Jobs 1999-2002 • • • • • • • • • • Absolute Growth Educational Services Food Services/Drinking Places Ambulatory Health Care Services Professional and Technical Services Local Government Specialty Trade Contractors General Merchandise Stores Hospitals Heavy and Civil Construction Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers • • • • • • • • • • Percent Change Warehousing and Storage Management of Companies Financial Investment Heavy and Civil Construction Support Activities for Mining Ambulatory Health Care Services Utilities General Merchandise Stores Educational Services Motor Vehicles/Parts Dealers (NAICS codes) Industries Losing the Most Jobs from 1999-2002 Absolute Change • Agriculture/Forestry Support • Computer/Electronic Manuf. • Apparel Manufacturing • Transportation Equip Manuf. • Fabricated Metal Manuf. • Chemical Manuf. • Oil & Gas Extraction • Food & Beverage Stores • Administrative Support Services • Federal Government (NAICS codes) Percent Change • • • • • • • • • Agriculture/Forestry Support Apparel Manufacturing Computer/Electronic Manuf. Transportation Equip Manuf. Wood Product Manuf. Misc. Manufacturing Printing and Related Support Oil & Gas Extraction Electrical Equipment and Appliances • Paper Manufacturing Texas Exports 2001 $94.995 billion in 2001 • Mexico (41.0%) • Europe (11.8%) • Southeast Asia (11.8%) • Canada (10.8%) • Asia (8.6%) • South America (5.5%) • Africa (4.8%) • Middle East (3.6%) • Computer/Electronic Products (27.0%) • Chemicals (15.3%) • Industrial Machinery (13.5%) • Transportation Equipment (11.9%) • Electrical Equipment (5.1%) • Petroleum (3.9%) • Fabricated Metal Products (3.4%) • Plastics and Rubber (2.9%) A Changing Texas Labor Market (3) 4. Technology implementation will enhance productivity and transform many job sites and skill sets. What jobs can be replaced by technology (sheep shearing, textile inspector, electronic insurance processing, voice recognition)? What jobs does technology create? see…. Burlington/Nano-Tex, Texasinabox.com More Output…Not More Workers U.S. Projections 2000-2010 (annual) • • • • • • • • • • Industry Sector Output Employment Computers & Related 7.0% 1.6% Chemicals 3.3% .4% Industrial Machinery 6.1% .5% Transportation Equipment 3.7% 1.1% Motor Vehicles 4.4% 0.8% Electrical Equipment 5.3% 0.6% Fabricated Metal Products 3.6% 0.8% Plastics and Rubber 4.0% 1.4% Telephone Communications6.5% 1.2% Computer Data Processing 8.0% 6.4% Technology Meets Apparel Manufacturing Technology Meets Barbeque… A Changing Texas Labor Market (4) 5. More jobs in small firms, greater use of leased and independent contract labor means fewer and shorter career ladders 6. Higher overall workforce education levels encourage fewer internal career ladders, fewer growth options for unskilled when they get a job e.g. hire outside folks who don’t need training Texas Employment Distribution by Firm Size First Quarter 2001 Firm Size Of Firms Statewide No. Percent 0-4 5-9 10-19 20-49 50-99 100-249 250-499 500-999 1,000 plus Total 243,788 77,816 52,239 38,203 14,554 8,820 2,826 1,242 843 440,331 55.3% 17.7% 11.9% 8.7% 3.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 100.0% Of Workers Statewide No. Percent 462,175 520,016 723,532 1,203,531 1,040,977 1,396,492 992,058 891,835 2,106,265 9,336,881 5.0% 5.6% 7.7% 12.9% 11.1% 15.0% 10.6% 9.6% 22.6% 100.0% Pattern of Change 1989-2001 Texas Employment Percentages by Firm Size Firm Size Pct of Workers 1989 1992 1996 2001 Trend 0-4 4.92 5.78 5.16 5.0 SMALL INCREASE 5-9 5.68 7.02 5.97 5.6 SLIGHT DECLINE 10-19 6.92 9.12 8.01 7.7 INCREASE 20-49 10.26 14.52 13.11 12.9 INCREASE 50-99 8.34 11.62 10.91 11.1 BIG INCREASE 100-249 11.52 14.64 14.56 15.0 BIG INCREASE 250-499 9.24 9.04 9.77 10.6 INCREASE 500-999 9.02 7.87 9.53 9.6 SMALL INCREASE 1000 + 34.10 20.48 22.98 22.6 MAJOR DECLINE A Changing Texas Labor Market (5) 7. For those working within companies, organizational structure moving from pyramid to flatter pyramid to hour glass, so fewer ports of entry for low skill workers 8. Workplace earnings are increasingly correlated with education and earnings inequality is increasing based on education and the “Digital Divide” Changing Nature of Work: New Paradigm for Career Ladders 1. Increased employment growth in service industries with higher percentages of workers in the secondary labor market 2. More jobs being created in smaller firms with shorter or less well-defined promotional ladders 3. Increased role for contingent workers, outsourcing, independent contractors with few formal promotional ladders Distribution of U.S. Employment by Education Category Education Category Bachelors Degree or higher Employment 2000 2010 Percent distribution Jobs Added Between 2000-2010 Mean Annual Earnings 2000 20.7% 21.8% 29.3% $56,553 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% $91,424 1.0% 1.1% 1.6% $52,146 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% $43,842 5.0% 5.2% 6.4% $69,967 12.2% 13.0% $48,440 Associate Degree 18.1% 3.5% 4.0% 7.3% $41,488 Postsecondary vocational award Work experience 4.6% 4.7% 5.5% $31,296 7.2% 8.5% 6.9% 5.0% $40,881 8.0% 4.2% $33,125 Moderate-term OJT 19.0% 18.4% 14.1% $29,069 Short-term OJT 36.6% 36.3% 34.6% $19,799 First Professional Degree Doctoral Degree Masters Degree Bachelors plus work experience Bachelors Degree Long-term OJT Lifetime Earnings by Education Level in Texas Education Level Estimated Lifetime Hours Short-term training Moderate-term training Long-term OJT* Work Experience Post-sec Vocational Award Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree Bachelor’s + Experience Master’s Degree Doctoral Degree First Professional Degree 83,200 83,200 83,200 83,200 83,200 83,200 83,200 83,200 83,200 83,200 83,200 Estimated Hourly Earnings $8.26 $11.32 $12.12 $15.85 $13.30 $17.72 $19.74 $24.82 $18.51 $19.53 $35.61 Texas 2000 Work Life Earnings $687,232 $941,824 $1,008,384 $1,318,720 $1,106,560 $1,474,304 $1,642,368 $2,065,024 $1,540,032 $1,624,896 $2,962,752 A Changing Texas Labor Market (6) 9. Globalization is changing economic theory, business practices and labor supply options 10. Changing demography affects everything from education needs, working with diversity, consumer tastes, tax structure, retirement Globalization and the U.S. Economy Total World Gross National Income (Product) 2001 = $31,500,012 million United States Gross National Product 2001= $9,900,724 million The FACT is that the United States economy represents 31.4 percent of the World Economy. The REALITY is that the top 20 richest countries represent 85 percent of the World Economy and the top 10 richest account for 74 percent. What Is an American Company? Percent of 2000 Revenue Outside U.S. • • • • • • • • YUM Brands Inc. 34.5% General Motors 26.2% Ford 30.4% Boeing 34.3% Intel 58.8% Coca Cola 61.0% Federal Express 29.9% Emerson Electric 40.0% • • • • • • • • Texaco 65.9% IBM 57.9% Motorola 52.5% Johnson/Johnson 38.2% John Deere 25.1% Colgate 69.4% Nike 50.3% Hasbro 36.0% Global Labor Supply Competition is Real! India is positioned to become the world’s information technology hub India’s software exports are expected to grow from $8 billion in 2001 to $57 billion by 2008, providing 4 million jobs. The Competition for Financial Services Jobs… Impacts of Globalization on Consumers • Broader access to a wider variety of products and services than neighborhood offers • Greater vendor diversity leads to better buying opportunities, lower prices; eg. comparison shopping via Internet • Lost allegiance to domestic producers; what about the “union label” or U.S. TVs?? • More volatile labor market with stronger competition from global labor supply Impacts of Globalization on Business • Businesses with global reach access more customers and get exposed in new markets • Businesses with regional niche lose local customers to a global market place • Business is exposed to supply chain opportunities to acquire lower cost inputs • Business is exposed to new labor supply options; foreign affiliates, H1B, global outsourcing A Changing Texas Labor Market (7) 11. A changing industry mix is resulting in changing occupational demand and skill sets, with an emphasis on lifelong learning. Projected Fastest Growing Occupations BLS National 2000-2010 • Fastest Growing • Computer Software Engineers Applications • Computer Support Specialists • Computer Software Engineers Systems • Network Administrators • Systems Communication Analyst • Desktop Publishers • Database Administrators • Personal Home Care Aides • Computer Systems Analysts • Medical Assistants • Adding Most Jobs • • • • • • • • • • Fast food Prep Wrkers Customer Service Reps Registered Nurses Retail Sales Workers Computer Support Specialists Cashiers, ex. Gaming General Office Clerks Security Guards Software Applications Engineers Waiter/Waitress Occupational Growth in Texas Fastest Growing 2000-2010 1. Computer Support Specialists 2. Computer Software Engineers, Apps 3. Network & Systems Administrators 4. Desktop Publishers 5. Computer Software Engineers, Systems 6. Network & Data Communications Analysts 7. Computer Specialist, NEC 8. Database Administrators 9. Medical Records Technician 10. Social Services Assistants 11. Special Education Teachers 12. Computer Systems Analysts 13. Medical Assistants 14. Physician Assistants 15. Information Systems Mgrs. Occupational Growth in Texas Most Jobs Created 2000-2010 1. Customer Service Representatives 2. Food Prep and Serving Workers, Fast Food 3. Child Care Workers 4. Retail Salespersons 5. Registered Nurses 6. Cashiers 7. Computer Support Specialists 8. Office Clerks, General 9. Waiters & Waitresses 10. General and Operations Managers 11. Elementary School Teacher 12. Teacher Assistants 13. Secondary School Teacher 14. Janitors and Cleaners 15. Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor Trailer Texas Career Clusters (sorted by Absolute Change) Cluster Name Business Administration Wholesale & Retail Trade Hospitality and Tourism Human Services Health Services Manufacturing Logistics & Distribution Information Technology Education and Training Public Administration Construction Scientific Research & Technical Legal and Protective Services Finance Art & Communications Services Agriculture Employment Employment Absolute Percent Average 2000 2010 Change Change Wages 3,024,530 1,775,390 1,255,660 1,001,240 884,380 1,107,930 1,050,760 455,330 619,900 919,650 838,270 443,870 330,090 639,470 512,880 559,220 3,450,090 2,030,000 1,477,950 1,218,640 1,099,320 1,294,450 1,217,400 616,930 778,100 1,062,960 951,350 544,810 410,420 712,920 585,760 631,360 425,560 254,610 222,290 217,400 214,940 186,520 166,640 161,600 158,200 143,310 113,080 100,940 80,330 73,450 72,880 72,140 14.07 14.34 17.70 21.71 24.30 16.84 15.86 35.49 25.52 15.58 13.49 22.74 24.34 11.49 14.21 12.90 $18.11 $12.30 $10.11 $11.65 $16.67 $18.04 $17.31 $24.45 $16.23 $26.18 $15.57 $26.97 $17.04 $18.33 $19.65 $21.42 A Changing Texas Labor Market (8) 12. All education and workforce development is part of economic development. Industry Clusters and regional targeting must emphasize regional collaboration. 13. The economic future of the region will depend on understanding the market factors faced by the employer community and how you shape policies to take advantage of that environment The Secret is in Collaboration! The Future is Uncertain… Predictions--statements indicating that something definitely will happen in the future--are generally impossible, due to human decisions that alter the future and to the many uncertainties inherent in human life Foretelling the Future… There Are No Gypsys with Crystal Balls! Futurists suggest things that might happen in the future so that people can decide what they want to make happen.